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Prior to President Obama's meetings with President Putin, I remember spending hours in the windowless room, soliciting ideas from members of the National Security Council to present to the President some positive points of the day. Agenda. But it was only part of the process. The agenda of any presidential meeting, including the one that Trump is going to have with Putin in July, is irrelevant if it is not accompanied by an analysis ( that the president really listens) about what to expect from Putin.
Every minute with Putin is a battle. He is a skilled manipulator and a negotiator. Psychological operations are her forte, whether it's bringing a dog to scare Chancellor Angela Merkel or deliberately praising President Trump for her positive attention.
If President Trump continues to ignore and undermine his NSC and their analysis of what Putin will attempt to do at their summit, he will be reduced to the role of patsy in Helsinki, just as he is Putin's pigeon here at the House. 19659002] Should not he take their advice and analysis, let me give you a little bit of myself.
Know that you're wearing your heart on your Twitter pouch:
Usually, the president's preparation is to evaluate how Putin sees the state of diplomacy and security. It's a no-brainer today: Putin definitely thinks that he has the benefit. Historically, the Russians had to do their homework. They had to use intelligence to understand how to push the presidential buttons. This time, with a president who regularly broadcasts his heart, his insecurities and his paranoia on Twitter, we must dig less. Putin only has to follow a few easy steps to make this "Summit" his own gold medal ceremony. His work can be more difficult if Trump can control his social media outflows in the coming weeks.
Putin's strategy is to deflect attention. Stick to your weapons:
Defining your counterpart's strategy is another ingredient of presidential preparation.
Anyone who prepares President Trump at this meeting, though he is not afraid to say it, will tell him that Putin's strategic move will try to move President Trump away from his arguments on as soon as possible. The fiasco "not to congratulate" was only a drop of water in the bucket. We have all seen the president systematically turn away from the script and I think that few people would say that propaganda with Putin is a good idea. The advent of a nuclear-armed dictator has not worked very well in Singapore and will not work better in Helsinki, especially if Putin gets Trump to denigrate our allies and accept 'agreements' on issues like Crimea, Syria or missile defense.
He will try to do it by being a bitch of compliments. He asked President Trump to just call him to say something nice about the US economy, so he will be full of praise for rejecting Trump. He will also likely use the President's favorite (non) safe words and phrases – words and phrases to which Trupm has an apparently Pavlovian answer: "witch hunt", "deep state", "collusion", "conspiracy", and more .
It is no coincidence that in his public remarks with National Security Adviser John Bolton in Moscow, Putin blamed the deterioration of bilateral relations in an intense political battle with the states -United. Countering Russia is one of the few issues that has bipartisan support in the United States. But facts matter to Putin as much as they count for Trump. He wanted to push the bear (Trump's paranoia about domestic political threats) and did it with Trump's own national security adviser sitting next to him.
So we should expect Putin's salvo to be a combination of cheap flattery and paranoid words that focus Trump on the imaginary internal threats to his presidency rather than the actual Russian threat for all Americans. Your inbox!
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Address the Russian elephant in the room, first:
This ugly 10 letter word, "interfered" is hard to say for President Trump same s & # He punished the Russians for the electoral interference. And any member of national security worthy of the name would tell the president that, analytically speaking, we are still under Russian attack.
Any attacked country has always prioritized stopping this attack. And from the point of view of national security, this time should not be different. Our ability to negotiate with President Putin on any issue is paralyzed by the fact that he thinks we are taking this attack flat, especially since President Trump refuses to say publicly that it is happened and happens.
Putin knows that all the major members of the president's foreign policy team are in agreement that Russia has attacked and attacks us, so he will try to get the president to prosecute his own tendency to deny the Russian attack. the door for the attack to continue (if "nothing" happens then there is "nothing" to stop right?) Trump must avoid this trap. Failure to do so will only contribute to Putin's mission to confuse and demoralize the American public and undermine the credibility of our institutions.
Remove these Russian earmuffs:
Trump is not known for his ability to listen. So preparing it for any meeting is difficult. A Putin summit, however, is at another level because of Trump's Russian earmuffs. The president's own inferiority complex on his electoral victory (and any influence of Russia on the election results) and his general desire to imitate strong men like Putin make him inclined to defuse some points that his advisors could do.
Before sitting down with Putin, Trump will have to remove those earmuffs. I have little hope that this will happen, but for Hilsenky to be truly successful – and not an artificial victory that Trump will inevitably claim – it is necessary.
Sam Vinograd is a national security analyst with CNN. She worked at President Obama's National Security Council and the US Treasury Department under President Bush.
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