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TOKYO — Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan is in Beijing for a three-day visit, the first Japanese leader to make an official trip to China in nearly seven years. The visit represents a chance to move beyond the tense relations between the two countries in recent years and their history of hostilities. Mr. Abe reached trade deals with China and committed to stable relations in a day of meetings Friday with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang.
Why is the visit so significant?
Japan and China have a bitter and bloody history dating back to World War II, but have slowly warmed up to each other. The nascent rapprochement comes after several years of friction, including a tense period of Cold War style escalation between ships when the countries contested their claims to islands in the East China Sea.
The visit also comes at a time of shifting power dynamics around the Pacific Rim. President Trump is distancing himself from traditional allies, diplomacy is stalling around the effort to denuclearize North Korea and both China and Japan are seeking to curry favor with Southeast Asian countries.
China is Japan’s largest trading partner, and as China fights an escalating trade war with the United States and Japan prepares for what could be tense two-way trade talks with the United States early next year, Mr. Abe is keen to emphasize an open trading relationship with China. As Japan worries about the prospect of American tariffs on its auto exports, it is looking to further develop car sales in China. According to Japanese media, Toyota plans to increase its production in China and expand plants in two major Chinese cities.
Why is Mr. Abe reaching out to Mr. Xi now?
In a word: Trump.
The American president is rattling leaders around the world, but Asia is particularly unsettled by concerns that Mr. Trump is abandoning American leadership in the region. Until recently, Mr. Xi has behaved as if China could keep Japan at an arm’s length. Now he is more receptive to the outreach from Japan because China is coming under increasing pressure from the United States. Mr. Xi realizes that China cannot afford to have a fractious relationship with Asia’s other big power at the same time.
For Japan, the fear is that China would rush to fill any void left by a reduced American presence in Asia, imposing its authoritarian rule and potentially anti-competitive trade practices across Southeast Asia.
Just how close might Japan get to China?
Not that close.
While Japan certainly wants to reset relations with China on a friendlier footing, it does not want to give away too much. So while it is looking to establish some joint projects with China — such as developing renewable energy in Thailand — it has continued to signal its strong posture on security in the region. Last month, for example, a Japanese submarine participated in war games in the South China Sea and made a port call in Vietnam, a clear pushback against China’s widening territorial claims in the region.
What does this mean for Asia’s future?
Calming tensions or the risk of military confrontation between two rivals at a time of global instability would reassure the rest of Asia. The symbolism of Japan’s flag flying in Tiananmen Square next to the flag of China certainly sends a message of peace.
As Japan and China embark on joint infrastructure projects in Southeast Asia, those countries stand to gain if the projects adhere to Japanese environmental and labor standards or reduce the chance that the recipient countries will get stuck in a quagmire of Chinese debt or end up handing over strategic assets like ports, as happened to Sri Lanka.
How will we know if things really went well?
By the size of the smiles. When Mr. Xi met Mr. Abe for the first time in 2014, Mr. Xi famously did not smile. At a meeting late last year, Mr. Xi flashed a grin and the Japanese media pounced on it as a sign of thawing relations.
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