Midway through, the Democrats have a historic opportunity. Do they have the votes?

The elections of November 6 concern above all Donald Trump. The president is a dangerous authoritarian whose political party not only refuses to retain him, but seems to take pleasure in imitating his most nihilistic impulses. The significance of mid-term decisions depends on the ability of the Democratic Party to gain control of at least one House of Congress, allowing it to conduct formal investigations and to carry out meaningful control.

But mid-term reviews are also a critical test for the health of American democracy. And even if we do not know the whole story before Wednesday morning, there are some reasons to be optimistic. Fear is perhaps the most explosive force in our politics, but apathy is the most corrosive. Until now, Americans seem to react to the Trump era with renewed political vigor.

In states that allow early vote, more than 30 million ballot papers have already been launched, far exceeding 20.5 million casting in 2014, with a few days left. The new voter registration is shatter records in swing states, including Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, all of which feature major congressional races. surveys of interest and enthusiasm in the election of 2018 indicate a much larger electorate under pressure than four years ago. Fundraising from small donors is off the charts.

This is the kind of activity you hope to see if you care about the state of the most powerful democracy in the world. This is also the kind of activity you would like to see if you are emotionally attached to the besieged Democratic Party.

At the national level, 31 states and the District of Columbia register voters by party. Among them, Democrats enjoy an advantage of nearly 12 million, according to the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Democrats outnumber Republicans in 19 states, including West Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Louisiana and Florida. The figure of 12 million certainly underestimates the extent of the democratic advantage, because of the 19 states that do not register per party, many are solidly democratic – Hawaii, Washington, Minnesota and Illinois – and others – New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Montana and, yes, Alabama – are currently represented by at least one elected Democratic official across the country. Of the 19 states that do not monitor party registration, only five – Mississippi, Texas, Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee – currently have no senators or Democratic governors.

And even. Twenty-six states have a unified republican regime, six others have a republican governor and six others have a republican-controlled legislature. The Senate is divided between 51 votes to 49 and the Republicans hold 47 more seats in the House. On election day, Democrats often have voters, but not votes.

Professional Democrats generally explain the gap between their registration advantage and polling day results by focusing on gerrymandering and suppression of voters. It's a comforting tale: Republicans win, but only because they cheat. And there is no doubt that gerrymandering and repression of voters are both Very real, very destructive and very racist. Nationally, Democratic candidates garnered 1,592,083 votes more than their Republican counterparts in 2012However, Republicans got 234 seats out of 201 for Democrats. The tactics deployed by the Republicans to suppress the black vote seems endless.

Republicans use voter repression and gerrymandering because it works. But Democrats have always had the ability to get rid of everyone by generating more enthusiasm and greater participation. And they rarely deliver the goods. In 2014, only 36.7% of eligible voters took the trouble to run, according to the American election project at the University of Florida. In 2010, a year of wave for Republicans, this figure was only 41%. Voter turnout has not eclipsed 50% mid-way since 1914, but it took a dip of 8.2 percentage points in 1974 – almost a fifth – and never really recovered. Reducing the participation of a few percentage points in previous elections could have been the difference between a Republican triumph and a Democratic wave, dirty stuff notwithstanding.

Part of the problem is that the Democrats do not show up. You can not win seats for which you do not compete. In 2018, with the party in its weakest electoral position since the American Civil War, many candidates decided to roll the dice on what appeared to be long-term deals in the dark red territory. In California's super-rich (median income: $ 93,995) 45th District, Katie Porter, an acolyte of Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) East run neck and neck with cut-my-Republican property taxes Mimi Walters. In the 5th district of Virginia, territory essentially crushed by campaigns to neutralize the Liberal votes in Charlottesville, southpaw Leslie Cockburn is in a dead heat with her Bigfoot Friendly the opponent Denver Riggleman.

Porter and Cockburn are not alone. A record number of women run for office in 2018 – good news for the representational part of representative democracy. There are 256 women on the ballot in the House and Senate this year, including 197 Democrats. The 183 women Democrats who run in the Chamber of Deputies are more than 50% higher than the previous party record of 120.

We do not know if Rep. Beto O'Rourke will beat Senator Ted Cruz in Texas or Stacey Abrams defeat Brian Kemp in Georgia. We do not know if Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten can dethrone nationalist republican white Steve King in rural areas of Iowa. But all of these races are solidly competitive as the last straight line approaches and the Democratic Party leaders who mocked at the thought of spending time and money in a deep red territory now seemed stupid . Democrats work well in Kansasand even the Oklahoma Governor's Race is not a lock for Republicans.

It is not only the liberal candidates who are suddenly competitive in the red states, so are liberal ideas. In Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and Utah, activists have gathered enough signatures for Medicaid extension on the ballot. Together, these initiatives could increase access to health insurance for 400,000 people. In Florida, voters have the opportunity to restore voting rights to 1.4 million citizens who have a crime record. In Colorado, voters could increase taxes of wealthy $ 1.6 billion to fund public education. In Missouri – where citizens abolished the anti-union law on the "right to work" of the state with a 2-to-1 margin in August – voters have the opportunity to raise the minimum wageand to repress the revolving door between the state legislature and the lobbying companies. An increase in the minimum wage is also on the ballot in Arkansas.

Much of this new competitiveness has been made possible by a new fundraising model. After years of imitating Republican campaign finance strategies – targeting big donors and serving their interests – Democrats finally seem to have found ways to raise money from people who are neither millionaires nor billionaires. This cycle they are Republicans more than 3 to 1 for donations of $ 200 or less. O'Rourke alone raised $ 31 million from small donors, an incredible sum for a race in the Senate. This is the money needed to get the message across.

So what message will work? The intermediate parties are about to test different strategies. In the Senate, Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) And Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) Do their best to survive in the red states in Trump – extolling their support for its banking program and its anti-immigrant message. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) And Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) pursue the opposite approach, posing as shameless populist progressives in Trump's territory. In Arizona, the representative Kyrsten Sinema – one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress – basically works like Mitt Romney, while O'Rourke presents himself as a progressive – part of his electoral record on the contrary.

Will all this be enough to give Democrats a majority in Congress? Most polls suggest that a takeover by the House is likely and that the reversal of the Senate is a long shot. But it all depends on who shows up to vote on Tuesday. Polls have slightly skewed up turnout demographics in the Upper Midwest in 2016, making what seemed like a sure thing for Hillary Clinton a surprise for Trump.

The Republican Party is Donald Trump's party, Roy Moore, Steve King and Gavin McInnes. It's a terrible brand with which most Americans do not want to be associated. But Democrats must prove it at the polls.