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Negotiations may be better than war, but if the talks are just negotiations and do not lead to a safer environment for the United States and its allies, diplomacy is not worth it. 39 to be pursued. President Donald Trump's foreign policy version has weakened his negotiating position with North Korea by the way he treats his allies and rivals in the region. If he wants to achieve what his predecessors have failed to do (ie, check the North's nuclear weapons program), then his tactics must change.
It was nearly a month ago that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Trump signed a vague document that left state secretary Mike Pompeo to clear up the details. Pompeo tried to do exactly that when he went to Pyongyang last week. Unfortunately, his efforts were of little use because North Korea and the United States gave different accounts of the meeting; The northern foreign minister said the talks were "regrettable" and Pompeo said the talks were "productive". The only substance produced by the meeting was the planning of a follow-up meeting around 12 July in Panmunjom. US soldiers from the Korean War and early reports indicate that the North Korean delegation has skipped this meeting.
After Pyongyang, Pompeo goes to Tokyo to inform the South Korean and Japanese authorities. Pompeo told Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono that he had raised the problem of kidnappings at this meeting and all the other meetings he had with the North Koreans. For the moment, this should satisfy Japan, but in the long run, if the issue of abductees is not resolved, then expect Tokyo to be agitated. As Tokyo becomes agitated, Japan could reconsider its development aid for a possible reconstruction of North Korea.
While Pompeo may have satisfied Japan on the issue of kidnapping, Japanese citizens are losing faith in denuclearization. The Yomiuri Simbun and Hankook Ilbo conducted a joint investigation where 83% of Japanese citizens do not think that the complete denuclearization of North Korea will be possible in the near future.
Like Japan, South Korea is now discovering what an "American" foreign policy looks like. In recent weeks, Blue House has seen the cancellation of the largest annual military exercise conducted by South Korea and the United States, Operation Ulchi Freedom Guardian. He saw an American president say, "We have 32,000 soldiers in South Korea. I would like to bring them home. And finally, there was this meeting between the secretary Pompeo and Kim Yong-chol, who produced very little in terms of denuclearization. All of these actions blinded our allies because Trump did not inform South Korea or Japan before this one-sided behavior.
After all this President Moon Jae-in again congratulated Trump for the summit and suspension of military exercises. This is because the current administration of the Blue House understates the army. It may satisfy the short term, but in the long run the Liberal government can not keep power forever. South Korean conservatives have criticized the Singapore Summit as a "disguised peace show". Trump's actions are detrimental to South Korean preparations and also hurt relations with the opposition party in South Korea.
All of this is happening as Trump reprimands the European allies at the NATO summit. At the NATO summit, Trump strongly criticized NATO members for not having paid their fair share and on the first day, the Trump summit declared that Germany was "captive to the Russia. "The NATO summit followed the G-7 summit.
US allies are not the only country to recover from a Trump foreign policy. As Washington tries to keep additional pressure on Pyongyang to reach an agreement, expect that there is little cooperation from Beijing, as China is currently involved in a trade war with the United States. It is unclear whether China is "exerting negative pressure" on North Korea, as President Trump tweeted, but following the Singapore summit, Beijing loosened its sanctions on the North Korean border. . Expect Beijing to interpret the economic sanctions more loosely as Xi seeks to put a thorn in Trump's foot.
President Trump has severely limited his choices in this area: he faces little cooperation from the trade war in China, from a South Korean army repeatedly disappointed and from a Japanese government who has not found a solution to the problem of abductees. As the flicker of the Singapore summit is swept away, Washington's relations with its allies are frayed and the US's main competitor is now isolated.
If the main objective is the denuclearization of the North, then current tactics fail. The United States can not enter the negotiations timidly, it requires full attention and all options must be open.
In order to reopen these options, President Trump must do the following: 1) manage the relationship with China to ensure cooperation, 2) resume small-scale operations with South Korea to ensure availability and maintain maximum pressure, 3) continue to insist on kidnapping issues for Japan, and 4) consult with US allies in the region before making unilateral decisions.
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