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U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin arrive for a meeting in Helsinki on July 16, 2018. (AFP / Getty Images / Brendan Smialowski)
Brian E. Frydenborg
AMMAN – After the great invasions of "barbarians" from the east who finally tore and destroyed a weakened Western Roman Empire that never became weak enough for This Because of the colossal internal division of mismanagement, it took about 1600 years to a new international system to conquer Europe that would approach the levels of peace and stability of Pax Romana [19659006] . 19659011] This system is the international order after the Second World War led by the United States, the "Long Peace" and the NATO alliance is one of the fundamentals relatively still imperfect) international order, along wi the system of alliances led by the United States in East Asia
I noted in March 2016 , even before I thought that Trump had more than a distant chance of winning the presidency (though I thought he could win the GOP nomination back in the summer of 19659006 of 2015, but more in 2016 I became more and more worried than he could be president), that Western Democracy and the International System were tried more than ever since the Second World War. After Trump's victory in December 2016, I warned that Putin's successful cyber-war campaign in what I called the (first) Russo-American cyber war was a devastating blow to the West and the international system. a wider war against the West and democracy itself, and at the beginning of the Trump presidency in February 2017, I developed Putin's global machinations and the rise world of what I called democratic fascism
If Putin makes his way and if Trump continues to To help and support it, it seems that this level of peace and stability in Europe could be revealed in our lives, and perhaps sooner than we think. That's right: we could witness the outbreak of more than 1600 years of human civilization because of the machinations of a Russian president who wants nothing more than to destroy this system (especially the # 39; NATO) and an American president who appears somewhere from hostility to this system to indifference .
Reducing NATO to Unpaid Bills
This should not be surprising . For all Mystic KBG surrounding Putin, his goals are remarkably banal and predictable, and his more creative methods are more easily understood through this rather precise prism. And Trump, well, his contempt for Europe, NATO, alliances, diplomacy, treaties and the like was well circulated during the 2016 election cycle for all can see it. Along with this, his authoritarian tendencies, his adoration of kings and strongmen and dictators ( hardly Putin ), his contempt of the rule of law his total ignorance of the Constitution and laws in general, and his terrifying imitations from the earliest stages of fascism (minus organized violence until now) were also disseminated so that everyone could see throughout the year 2016.
Trump, Merkel and the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenburg (AFP)
So, without a doubt without precedent, it should not be surprising that Trump, a recent NATO meeting, is literally reducing NATO. to a series of unpaid bills in America and called Germany "captive" to Russia that during the next state visit to the United Kingdom, Trump has tried to destabilize the government of the beleaguered British Prime Minister Theresa May by approving it [19659006] just-resig ned Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson more or less replaces it all this just a few days before the historic – and historically horrific – "summit" of Trump with Putin.
In the end, we are witnessing an era in which betrayal ( in the mind if not in a strict US constitutional sense) was trivialized and the lie was misunderstood. obstruction fail to deliver mass indignation even when obvious, and one of the two main political parties in the United States – existing since the 1850s – n? did not become a little more than a worship devoted to a madman and justifying or excusing . ] its unjustifiable and inexcusable. There is no shame, nothing is sacred, no norms safe from sudden blunders, and there is so much outrage that there is little time to appreciate or consider a serious violation of the protocol when the next violation is imposed on our conscience against our will, our collective perspective that erupts emotionally suffers so much trauma that the only human response is to be numb by all the horror, exactly the reaction that Trump apparatchiks want and plan.
A Great Leap Forward
Some may say, "Oh, nothing that really happened happened. Everything is basically good. "But those who know the story know that history does not move in Great Leaps Forward, and even the Great Leap Forward was really a lot of little jumps added together." And as this is obvious to those with a sense of history, the footsteps of Trump and his underlings, combined with the footsteps of Putin and his agents, put us together miles in a territory recently unexplored; their many small combined actions to provide a near certainty that when, eventually, a serious crisis or crisis erupts, something disastrous will happen, prohibiting any miraculous deception that will deceive us into thinking that things are going well, raising us even higher [19659013] While the unthinkable continues to happen, one of the most important lessons we can learn is to stop taking things for granted: that things will get better, that [19659006] he would not ever be X, that the American people, Republicans, Congress and / or the media will judge him responsible, that the Bernie wing of the Democratic Party learned his lesson and did not will not vote in significant numbers for the third. – Partly in a way that is a net benefit to Trump and the Republicans that anything that comes after American hegemony can not be worse.
In the end, perhaps as much as and perhaps more than anything else, the Trump-Putin summit "In Helsinki was an announcement, l For the whole world, it is that the United States United have no foreign policy and that the US chief executive has no idea and no shame, that all bets are extinguished, only if the imperial court of Trump could be able to to rule in some cases, nothing is guaranteed over time and everything is possible, that the United States is no longer a reliable partner and that its center of gravity revolves around a deranged emperor.
Imperial entanglements
For those here in Jordan and others in the intricate imperial entanglements of America (this is not to use the term "imperial" pejoratively, as any entity in the history of relative power of the United States found itself with similar entanglements ments, it's just to underline it), I say buckle, it's going to be a bumpy ride and I do not really know how to tell you to manage your relationship with the United States. You can handle Trump easily with a measure. Even after winning a victory over Trump, he could even, the next day, slaughter a sacred cow of some importance for you.
Of course, it is possible that Trump will be controlled at mid-session in November. quite in 2020, but it is also possible ( perhaps more likely? ) neither will occur. As the international system headed by the United States is misguided or uninhibited, as American influence wanes or America acts more in the spirit of self-interest naked and crude in the way it is often accused of acting but better describes the actions of powers like Russia and China, as the human rights talks disappear from the US President's agenda, as US expectations and standards begin to run wild. the rules of engagement to limit civilian casualties are considerably relaxed in US military operations around the world we can have a conversation because the measurable damage over time is considered bad for the international system led by the United States since the end of World War II, perhaps fail now, was really. We can measure the increase in power, influence and reach of Russia and China and see if they do more (they are not) or less (much, much less) on human rights and see if they take more or less how they throw their weight around. But from civilian casualties in the Syrian assault supported by Russia in Aleppo ( vs the relative restriction in the US-assisted operation in Iraq in Mosul) 19659006] is distributed in Africa against that of USAID, the answer to these questions is already obvious.
Russian Jets stationed at Hmeimim Air Base in Lattakia, West Syria (AFP)
Ask People
Ask the inhabitants of Estonia, from Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, among others, the difference between their current relationship with America and their domination by the Russians. Ask the people of Hong the difference between Chinese and Western rule. Why the US 's former opponent and l' # 39; Communist State of Vietnam reach out to the United States to help verify the regional influence of China Communist China?
This is not to pretend to perfection in the international system run by the United States, far from it, because there are many problems and mistakes. But just about every major measurable means, this "neoliberal" system was one of the most outstanding for peace (no doubt, the proportion of people and the absolute number of people die from an armed conflict in the world on the decades of American hegemony), stability and raise people from poverty in the history of the world
Vladimir Putin made a wish, while the Soviet Union collapsed, to reverse what he saw happen. He succeeds today, probably beyond what he thought possible, and this recent press conference between him and Donald Trump (whose incriminating links with Russia did more than 19659006] does not provide a better example of Russia's gains on the international stage to the detriment of America, with an American president basically playing the supporting role of a opponent Putin who could hardly contain his excitement.
As I said, buckle Indeed, we do not know how much it will happen, or if it will improve before well other unthinkable events – worse than what has happened so far – and how these two men decide to react – perhaps in tandem – to define a generation or more of global international relations.
Brian E. Frydenborg in an independent writer am American, academic and consultant from the New York region currently based in Amman, Jordan. The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of Al Bawaba News, only those of the author.
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