Trump, Iran and the new guns of August

During the hot summer of 1987, I was a young Navy officer sailing in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Ormuz aboard the Valley Forge, a brand new Aegis Cruiser and heavily armed. Our mission, dubbed Ernest Will, was to escort merchant ships in and out of the Gulf, protecting them from the threat of Iranian cruise missiles and air attacks

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the Iran-Iraq war – which lasted eight years and cost more than half a million lives – and our job was to keep the shipping routes open while Iran was looking to control the vital strait through which pass about 35% of

C & # 39; was an exciting and dangerous job. Over the next year, the US Navy will finally attack the Iranian Navy, in retaliation after one of our frigates was almost sunk by an Iranian mine in the Praying Mantis operation. Eventually, Iraq and Iran settled their differences and a precarious peace prevailed between the Arabs and the Persians in the shallow, warm, shallow waters of the Gulf, despite occasional outbreaks, for the next three decades.

Until now. Tension in the Gulf – and especially in the Strait of Ormuz – is rising again, and the echoes of these conflicts, 30 years ago, are getting stronger. The presidents of Iran and the United States exchanged severely worded tweets this week (in 1987, a bird tweeted on a spring morning) and the oil markets are watching developments closely. Israel has released another cache of stolen Iranian documents showing the perfidy and determination of its nuclear program

What would a conflict centered on the Strait of Ormuz look like? How long would it last? And above all, what is the best strategy that the United States could adopt vis-à-vis Iran?

The armed conflict in the region remains the religious and geopolitical tension between Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran, each of which has historical hostility the other. Iran is pushing hard, diplomatically and militarily, in several Sunni nations around the region – Iraq, Syria and Qatar – and others more divided between the two main sects of the world. Islam, Lebanon and Yemen.

Mohamed bin Salman, crown prince, young and capable, is determined to put an end to the advancing Persians in the Arab world. The two nations share long Gulf coasts, where they fought for centuries. And the key to the entire region is the narrow entrance to the sea: the Strait of Ormuz, of a width of 30 miles

We know that Iran has detailed plans to close the strait. It would use a variety of means, including widespread mining; swarms of small, ultra-fast patrol boats; cruise missiles ashore; piloted aircraft; and diesel submarines. Iran would use a "layered attack", stationing diesels in the Arabian Sea on the other side of the strait to harass incoming merchant ships; swarming of the United States and Allied warships within the narrow confines of the Strait itself; Of course, all of this is illegal under international law, but would defy the United States and Gulf Arabs while pushing up oil prices exponentially. (Iran is able to export oil from its south coast, bypassing the strait, so that its economy could suffer less than that of the Arabs.)

When the Supreme Leader l & rsquo; Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani talk about closing the strait means the. They could do it in just 48 to 72 hours, because commercial shipping, for the sake of caution and under pressure from insurers, would choose not to risk crossing the waters.

In terms of response, the United States and allies and coalition partners would certainly react strongly. Our navy would attack Iranian ships attempting to lay mines; hitting land sites with cruise missiles and air within range of the strait; sank Iranian diesel submarines at their jetties; and potentially launch punitive attacks against broader targets inside Iran (although the initial responses would likely target only the weapons and systems used in the closure of the strait to observe the rules of war)

. plans to close the strait, the United States have emergency plans to meet and reopen it. It would be a longer process than many people suspect, especially if Iran had the opportunity to put a significant number of mines in the water. Mine cleaning is a laborious and tedious process that could take weeks or even a month or two.

President Donald Trump, who has a long dislike for Iran and hated the Obama administration's nuclear deal, reacted harshly when Khamenei made a thinly veiled reference to playing the game. map of the Strait of Hormuz if the United States impose additional sanctions. In doing so, Trump takes a page from the North American logbook for North Korea, betting that Khamenei and Tehran's hardliners will back off and choose a diplomatic path instead of war.

Unfortunately, Iranians are much more ideological than Kim Jung Un. Kim is a gangster leader who will respond to financial incentives; the ayatollahs are religious zealots, many of whom are ready to die to challenge the Great Satan.

A better strategy for the United States than angry tweets would be to develop an aggressive but sensible overall strategy towards Iran. Key elements would include increased monitoring and intelligence gathering (especially with Israel); reinforced missile defenses for the main American bases in the region ( Bahrain for the naval forces and Al Udeid in Qatar for the air forces); encourage the Gulf Cooperation Council of the Arab States and Israel to cooperate more intensively in intelligence sharing and missile defense; more offensive cyber use to outpace Iranian options; larger naval forces in the region, particularly in the Arabian Sea; and – especially – put our European allies "in agreement" in the sanctions regime harder.

To contact the author of this story:
James Stavridis at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Tobin Harshaw ] at tharshaw @ bloomberg. net