Trump's ironic Iran tweet a distraction of questions about Russia

WASHINGTON-U.S. The insulting tweet of President Donald Trump against Iran on Sunday night showed his determination to use the same approach that he adopted to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough with North Korea. But Trump's key advisers are much more united in their hostility to engaging with Iran, and Iran is much less likely to bow to such pressure.

Trump's threat that Iran "suffers consequences of which few have suffered before," Delivered before midnight in all caps, managed to change the subject after a week of bad news about her encounter with Russian President Vladimir Putin

but he only questioned the long-term direction of Trump's Iranian policy. While the White House has not ruled out Monday direct talks between the president and Iranian leaders over its nuclear program, Trump's national security team has focused on overthrowing the government Iranian rather than on the conclusion of a new contract. A few hours before Trump's tweet, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo promised in a speech that the United States would work with the Iranian people to undermine their clerical leaders, whom he described as "holy hypocrites." ", guilty of plundering their country to enrich and fund Islamic terrorism around the world.

The White House scrambled to give a coordinating varnish to Trump's blast. Officials said that this occurred after consultations with National Security Adviser John R. Bolton and in response to statements by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. A senior administration official said it augured a "more aggressive and comprehensive approach" towards Iran.

Nothing in Trump's tweet suggests that he's looking to talk anytime soon. But his words echoed his threat last summer to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who he said was facing "fire, fury, and power, what this world does." Never seen before ".

Later, Trump accepted Kim's invitation to meet, and after spending a few hours with him in Singapore, Trump said he and Kim had ended the nuclear crisis with North Korea . He is committed to this assessment despite the fact that North Korea is committed to doing nothing beyond what it has promised for a long time and that the subsequent negotiations have become bogged down in

he told foreign aides and leaders that his policy of maximum pressure had forced Kim to the negotiating table, and that a similar policy of overwhelming pressure would allow the United States to maintain its position. extract a better deal from Iran.

He even took the credit for what he said are changes in Iran's behavior in the region since it's been withdrawn from the case – an assertion that defies the Iranian experts, who say that there is no evidence of changes in the way Iranian operates

Experts and former officials who negotiated with Iran listed at least Three reasons Trump would struggle to replicate his North Korea breakthrough with Iran.

First, Iran's leadership is more complex and multi-faceted Unlike the unipersonal state of North Korea, it is harder for Tehran to reverse the trend like Kim did, and reach Trump.

Second, there are powerful and well-funded ridings in Canada and abroad. The Israeli government and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a lobby group based in Washington, will mobilize against any further diplomatic opening to Iran.

Third, Trump's unilateral decision to abandon the 2015 nuclear deal has little incentive for Iranians to negotiate with the United States, especially since the other five signatories – Great Britain and the United States Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China – still adhere to it.

"The bet they make is that all these countries are going to bump and that Iran will come crawling to the table," said Jake Sullivan, who took part in secret negotiations with the company. Iran in 2012 as assistant to the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who led to the agreement of US President Barack Obama

.He said that the administration Trump had set an impossible standard for any successor agreement: to settle all other Iranian problems in the Middle East, from Syria to Yemen.

"All their strategy is the pressure itself, with the hope that For more than a decade, Bolton advocated "the overthrow of the mullahs' regime in Tehran". But he recently told Voice of America that the change of direction was "not the goal of the administration". Pompeo also did not mention diplomacy in his Sunday address at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., In 19659014. On the other hand, Pompeo is heavily invested in diplomacy with North Korea, where, as director of the CIA, he helped lay the groundwork for the Singapore summit and, as secretary of state, led the negotiations with Kim's subordinates. </ p> <p> Bolton took a low profile on North Korea, in part because it almost sabotaged the meeting by stating that the United States should use Libya as a model to rid North Korea of ​​its nuclear arsenal

On Monday morning, he issued a statement as bellicose as Trump's, except for the tiny letters.

"I've been talking to the President in recent days," he said, "and President Trump m & # 39, said that If Iran does anything to the negative, they will pay a price as few countries have ever paid before. "

Vali R. Nasr, Dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said:" The end of Trump is different from what it is for hawks like Bolton and Pompeo. Trump is much more interested in what results for him personally, in terms of the Nobel Peace Prize. "

Even though Trump overcame the objections of his staff to pursue a diplomatic overture, the experts said that it was unlikely that Iran would be receptive – its decision to withdraw from the US. The nuclear agreement has reinforced the hand of hard-liners there, and leaders like Rouhani, who was once considered a moderate, have become more bellicose.

"Iranians have a more complex political environment than North Korea" said Suzanne Maloney, Iranian expert and Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution: "It is relatively easy for Kim Jong Un to turn a dime and take advantage of an opportunity;

Iran, notes Maloney, reacts relatively calmly to Trump's tweet. The country's leaders, she said, believe the president is trying to lure them to violate the nuclear deal, which they do not want to do. But his threats shake the Iranians, who fear that Trump's aides will push him to a confrontation. "It's going fast," she said, "and the president has a facility around him that seems to want dust with Iran."