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On Monday, the Trump administration will reimpose sanctions on the Iranian regime 's energy, transport and finance sectors, targeting more than 700 entities. Many of these companies were initially affected by the Obama era sanctions that were lifted when the United States signed the Iran nuclear deal in 2015. Three hundred of these entities are new targets.
Monday's action will be the most important move resulting from President Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal. The United States was not able to force Iran's oil exports to zero, which was their stated goal. Speaking to reporters Friday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo acknowledged, however, that intense pressure from the administration had sharply reduced these exports. So far, the decrease includes a significant reduction in China's imports of 200,000 barrels a day, according to a GAO report on sanctions imposed by Iran.
"From today, Iran will have no oil revenue to spend on these things," said Pompeo, referring to Iran's support for terrorism, the military engagement in Syria, the development of ballistic missiles and cyber-piracy activities. "Zero."
Officials said Iran was already feeling the effects of higher sanctions. Iranian oil imports have fallen in recent months as many companies and countries have anticipated the return of these sanctions.
"We hope to have reduced Iran's crude oil exports by more than a million barrels even before the entry into force of these sanctions," said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, which is to halve the number of their current exports.
Eight countries will get a penalty waiver, but the United States will not reveal the list of countries until Monday. Afghanistan, Iraq and South Korea are three countries on the list of recipients of exemptions, according to diplomatic sources, confirmed CBS News. Other officials said the list would include US allies such as Turkey, Italy, India, Japan and South Korea, had tried to eliminate their imports but had not could not complete his task on Monday.
The Iranian regime will still be able to import humanitarian goods and other goods and services from countries that continue to import their oil and have been exempted from the United States. Countries will proactively cut their imports and they will not pay for what they get in cash, thus preventing the flow of funds to Iranian agents in the Middle East, including Hezbollah.
"Some of them will take a few months to get to zero," said Pompeo. "We'll give them a little more time to calm down, weeks."
SWIFT, a financial messaging service at the heart of the will of Iranian companies, will be subject to US sanctions as it continues to facilitate Iranian oil exports, but it is not part of the 700 targets of the withdrawal of sanctions on Monday .
"We told SWIFT that the Treasury would aggressively use its authorities to maintain intense economic pressure on the Iranian regime, and that SWIFT would be subject to US sanctions if it provided financial messaging services to certain designated Iranian financial institutions." said the Treasury Secretary. Steve Mnuchin.
Critics said the Trump administration was now using the same strategy as the Obama administration: harsh sanctions to force Iran to negotiate an agreement. But, ironically, Mr. Trump has abandoned the current agreement. Administration officials said Trump was pushing hard on sanctions and would get a better deal at the end, not focusing solely on the Iranian nuclear program. They also say their approach is much tougher, citing as an example the eight "temporary" waivers, comparing the 20 waivers of the Obama administration, according to Brian Hook, US special representative for Iran.
These sanctions have yet to have any significant tangible impact on the destabilizing "death and destruction" of the Iranian regime's proxies. The administration expects to see an impact in the long run, without however setting a deadline.
"We do not anticipate that these effects will come into effect until later.Our sanctions will only come into effect on Monday," said CBS News Hook, the US Special Representative for Iran. "We expect more progress as our sanctions begin to be felt."
According to Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, who is in regular contact with the Trump administration, the Trump administration's approach should unfold in three phases.
The first phase was to ask Iranian oil exports to be as close to zero as possible before November 5, without raising oil prices. Phase 2 will deny oil revenues to Iran by blocking them in restricted accounts. Phase 3 would be later, in 2019, when the administration believes that oil markets will be smoother and global demand is expected to decline, which could allow the United States to further reduce Iran's oil exports.
"They do not want all Iranian oil to be taken off the market on November 5, as that would drive up the price and generate additional revenue for Iran," Dubowitz said. Hook said that the United States had planned carefully to avoid causing such a peak.
There are other complicating factors in reducing Iran's oil imports from some countries. A diplomat from one country said his systems were designed for Iranian crude and importing oil from other countries would be a problem as it would involve costly restructuring of the entire oil processing system.
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