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9:55 am: Anderson will be guaranteed $ 4 million, tweets Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
9:40 am: It’s a one-year Major League contract for Anderson, MLBTR has learned.
9:10 am: The Phillies agree to a contract with the right free agent Chase Anderson, reports Robert Murray of Fansided (via Twitter). The Hub Sports Management client will join a growing stock of experienced guns vying for innings at the back of the Philadelphia rotation. His approval is pending the completion of a physical examination.
Anderson, 33, spent the 2020 season with the Blue Jays but missed the start of the season shortened by an oblique strain. He came back and pitched well in August before battling through a tough month in September. Overall, he has only totaled 33 2/3 innings with an ERA of 7.22.
Despite this unsightly mark, there is plenty of reason to believe that the Anderson pickup could be a worthwhile, low-cost investment. From 2014-19, Anderson was a sustainable source of average or better innings, with a 3.94 ERA and 4.43 SIERA over the lifetime of 857 frames between the D-backs and the Brewers. Anderson’s only IL relays at this time were a minimum stay for triceps tightness in 2015, followed by brief absences due to oblique strain and finger laceration. His arm held up well in the rotation in both Arizona and Milwaukee, and even last year’s absence had nothing to do with his elbow or shoulder.
Looking further into his 2020 work, there is also cause for optimism. Anderson has decreased the use of his four knives in favor of more knives and shifts, and the results have been encouraging in some ways. He posted a career-high 24.7% take-out rate, above the league average, and his 6.5% walk rate was an improvement over his Brewers days, sitting well in the south of the league average. Anderson was plagued with a .362 average on in-play balls and a home-run rate so high that a positive regression is almost inevitable (2.94 HR / 9).
Anderson has been somewhat prone to circuits throughout his career, but there is no reason to expect such pronounced struggles to continue. Field-independent metrics that normalize home-run rate, such as xFIP (4.09) and SIERA (4.01), were a bit more bullish on him than his base ERA.
Anderson will join Lefty Matt moore on the big league roster as a profitable option at the back of the rotation behind the top starters Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Zach Eflin. His addition could allow the Phillies to give the best prospects Spencer howard more time in Triple-A and to move Vince Velasquez in the box, but it’s likely that Moore, Anderson, Howard and Velasquez will each start games for the Phils in 2021. Teams will be more careful than ever with the workload after the shortened game list of the year last, so having multiple starting options becomes increasingly important. The Phils also added Ivan Nova and Bryan mitchell on minor league pacts.
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