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Industry 4.0, circular economy, sustainable finance and investment with a view to having an impact on the environment, the talent market and the growing importance of silver production. There are trends that appear and disappear. There are also megatrends, trends that the global economy simply can not escape. These are, according to Deloitte's experts, those mentioned above.
What exactly are megatrends? These are global forces that have an overwhelming influence on both global economies and society. Their impact is important from the point of view of production, consumption, investment or social interaction. Financial managers surveyed by Deloitte are convinced that the changes that are taking place today are above all an enormous amount of data and advanced analysis (61%), digitization (52%), geopolitical, robotization and automation changes (44%). are responsible today for the increase in productivity.
– These factors will have the greatest impact on the appearance of the company over the next few years. Based on them, we have selected a few megatrends that have a chance to gain the most importance on a global scale. Economies that will reap the benefits and eliminate existing threats will prove to be the most competitive – says Julia Patorska, Deloitte's leader in economic analysis.
Megatendance: Industry 4.0
Industry 4.0 is a trend to which we certainly can not be indifferent. It is the last industrial revolution, which differs from the previous ones, that the use of the latest technologies is capable of blurring the physical, digital and biological boundaries
– The most important solutions for the development of the Industry 4.0 include the Internet of Things, machine learning, link http://www.egospodarka.pl/143800,Ztutuna-inteligencja-zarobi-dla-firm-przeszlo-1-bln-USD , 1,39,1.html artificial intelligence> and extended and virtual reality (AR and VR). According to forecasts by Deloitte, already this year, more than a billion smartphone users will create at least one augmented reality content – explains Wojciech Górniak, head of the digital transformation team.
According to him, the development of Industry 4.0 is supported not only by technological progress, but also by the needs of consumers, supply constraints, especially in the sector of non-renewable resources and the labor-& # 39; work.
Fig. According to Deloitte experts, the opportunity to popularize the model of the circular economy is the development of new industries and new markets, especially in the service sector, lower operating costs and the increase in competitiveness and business innovation.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution will increase productivity and incomes, and reduce the risk for many business processes. However, there are challenges that will result in increased risks to privacy and economic business, which will offset some of the positive effects of technological changes. Industry 4.0 undoubtedly increases the possibility of cyber-attacks and data theft. It is also necessary to take into account the potentially adverse social reaction linked, for example, to the impact of automation on the labor market. Regulations are also needed to ensure citizens' level of safety and give way to profitable commercial innovations. Lack of public education and insufficient support from citizens to adapt to ongoing changes can contribute to the growth of populist movements around the world.
The gap between the possibilities related to the changes and the reality is confirmed by the study. you are ready? Deloitte has led the management team of companies and government agencies in 19 major economies around the world.
– Respondents understand the changes that occur in their environment, but they are not necessarily able to use them. According to 87 percent. Respondents from Industry 4.0 can reduce social and economic differences. At the same time, concerns arise as to whether the staff is properly prepared and whether the company has the expected skills. Only a quarter of respondents believe they have sufficient personal resources to meet the challenges of the future – explains Julia Patorska.
Megatrends: circular economy
What will affect the implementation of this idea by companies, it is above all the regulation. In recent months, the European Commission has published a number of documents related to the promotion of a circular economy, obliging the Member States to make gradual changes in this area. Regulatory work began with packaging and plastics. According to the assumptions, in 2030 up to 70 percent. by weight of all packaging waste must be recycled. In Poland, it is currently 57.5%. Increasing consumer awareness is also very important to popularize the idea of a circular economy.
A circular economy is not a new market or economic model, but it allows a better allocation of resources. Because the economy is a science on how to effectively use limited resources, the circular economy has all the attributes to become a widely accepted approach. The linear model until then used for the use of the "production-consumption-ejection" resources is replaced by the "closed loop" model, in which the waste, when it presents itself, becomes a material first.
According to Deloitte experts, the opportunity to popularize the model of the circular economy is the development of new industries and new markets, especially in the service sector, lowering costs of money. exploiting and increasing the competitiveness of companies. In turn, the high implementation costs of the closed model can be hindered. Compliance with REP requirements, ie extended producer responsibility (product liability is extended at all stages of its life), can be in the range of 15 billion dollars. 39 euros in Europe.
– The limited availability and quality of data on raw material and waste flows and regulatory barriers remain a problem – explains Julia Patorska.
Megatrends: Sustainable Finance and Investment for Environmental Impacts
Individual investors and businesses are increasingly measuring their impact and their return on investment. taking into account not only financial but also social and environmental costs and benefits.
– This approach does not mean a revolution and a total departure from the profit test. It supposes an evolutionary consideration of additional criteria, relating for example to the natural environment. The goal is to ensure that the natural market incentives – and thus the profit motive – are used to simultaneously achieve other important goals. In addition, this aims to encourage the internalisation of negative external costs. For example, large financial institutions are increasingly paying attention to capital investment, that the issuer is acting responsibly, as this reduces the risk of investment – explains Julia Patorska .
It is estimated that the value of socially responsible investment in Europe in 2015 was already close to 150 billion euros.
It should also be added that investing with an impact on the environment creates an opportunity for greater transparency of the financial market and accountability in the context of the impact generated . On the other hand, the challenges include reconciling – sometimes conflicting – interests between what the company pays for financially and what it should do given the impact on the environment .
– When making decisions, non-financial factors may of course be less important than expected profits. It must be assumed, however, that over time, when methodological imperfections in the communication of social and environmental indicators are limited, non-financial criteria will become more important, "explains Julia Patorska.
Megatrends on the job market
Among other megatrends, Deloitte's experts singled out the growing importance of the talent market and the so-called money economy. They have a lot in common. The structure of the labor market changes diametrically. More and more people are improving their skills throughout their lives, working on their own or on the basis of flexible forms of employment. The number of employees who work remotely or as independent contractors is also increasing. At present, only 30.6 million of these people can be in the European Union. At the same time, employers need to reconcile the interests of many different generations in the labor market and gradually fill the gap created after the post-retirement generations.
– This could be a major blow to economic growth, which is why many governments have raised the legal retirement age in recent years. Changes in pension systems mean that more and more people are seeking information on current regulations and calculating the profitability of staying in the labor market. The need for a longer professional activity, combined with the low pensions expected from the public system, can also significantly affect the propensity to save and to seek assets that will constitute a safe investment for capital and a kind of "old age policy". Adds Julia Patorska.
Megatrend: Electromobility
The activity of the largest auto companies and government support systems for electromobility translate into the growing interest of consumers. The motivation to buy electric vehicles is the growing awareness of the environment and the increased profitability of this type of vehicle, compared to conventional vehicles.
– Electromobility concerns not only cars, but also electric and hydrogen buses. The development of zero emission bus fleets is crucial in building "sustainable cities" that reduce air and noise pollution. Another aspect of the use of electromobility is the synergy with renewable energy, which leads to a low-emission economy and energy independence – says Karol Wierzbicki, expert in the team of the E & E # 39; electromobility.
According to Deloitte's estimates, at the beginning of the next decade, the price of the battery is expected to fall to around 130 kW / h, making the electric drive more attractive to the market.
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