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The Syrian army, backed by Russian air power and a militia backed by Iran, is currently pounding Syrian territory south-west of Daraa. This must be a particularly rewarding moment for Syrian President Bashar Assad. In March 2011, the Daraa region was among the first places to rise up against the Assad regime, gaining the sobriquet, "Cradle of the Revolution."
Now seven years and countless atrocities later, Daraa seems to be going from cradle to grave. The people there are in desperate need of shelter. Once, refugees from Daraa found security just across the southern border in Jordan. But the gates of Jordan have been closed since 2016. The United Nations says there are 650,000 Syrian refugees in the Hashemite Kingdom. Jordan places his unofficial total at over one million. He does not plan to take any more.
As a result, the people of Daraa now look west to the Israeli heights of the Golan Heights for refuge. Thousands have already arrived, setting up tent camps near the buffer zone that separates the Israeli and Syrian armies. According to estimates, the number of potential refugees would be 100,000 or more.
Quicktake Syria Civil War
On Sunday at the weekly cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed this possibility. It was simple and direct. "We will continue to defend our borders," he said. Its meaning was clear. In no case will Israel allow refugees to flock.
While speaking, the Israel Defense Forces were already providing reinforcements to the Golan Heights. The deployment was televised, a warning to Assad not to push refugees from the Daraa countryside towards Israel. The buildup of the army included not only tanks but artillery – a warning in a warning.
In the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Israel struck downtown Damascus with artillery fire. The pieces that Assad saw on television reminded Assad that his palace is not out of reach (not to mention the fact that artillery shells are cheaper and easier than airborne missile attacks. )
Netanyahu's defensive stance is not politically controversial in Israel. The vast majority of Israelis oppose hosting refugees, especially Syrians hated from Israel. And the civil war, with its changing allegiances, has aggravated the problem of filtering. An unknown but significant number of terrorists and al-Qaeda sympathizers are mixed with the general population of Daraa.
But that does not mean that Israel will ignore refugees outside its doors. "We will expand humanitarian support to the best of our ability," Netanyahu said at the cabinet meeting. Over the past six years, the IDF has provided Syrian (relatively) friendly neighbors with substantial medical assistance and other arrangements.
There were also reports that he was providing them with light weapons and ammunition, although the Israeli army does not comment on this. But this week, the IDF has very publicly started storing tents, food, clothing and baby items for the expected refugees. This is also a message – play according to our rules if you want our help.
But it is at the Trump-Putin summit in Helsinki on July 16 that major decisions on Syria will be discussed, and Netanyahu will be watching it closely. For Bibi, the main problem in the Syrian conflict is Iran, the sworn enemy of Israel, who supported Assad and whose military presence in Syria is considered a threat in Israel. In contrast, Bashar Assad is small potatoes. Israel has lived for decades with the Assad family next door; he knows how to cope.
The Russian presence in Syria is a plus for Netanyahu. For years he has cultivated good relations with Putin, letting him know that he respects the interests of Russia and hopes for reciprocity. It means keeping the Iranian-led forces as far away as possible from Israel and allowing the IDF to thwart Iran's efforts to import advanced weapons
This What Vladimir Putin wants is to help President Trump. The form this aid takes will depend on what Putin can not get from the US president at the top; no one can put pressure on Trump as Bibi, as the new Jerusalem embassy shows.
Trump does not need lobbying on the subject of Iran. The president is fully aware that Tehran is a dangerous enemy. And, unlike Netanyahu, he has a very powerful weapon at his disposal. The threat of US sanctions is already shaking Tehran's leadership.
It is probably too difficult to hope that the only economic pressure will bring down such a repressive regime in the short term. It is reasonable, however, to think that harsh sanctions in the United States (in the face of European opposition) may force the Iranian leadership to drastically reduce the budget for regional military adventures. An Iranian withdrawal to the Gulf, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza would be a foreign coup for any American president. For his support, Trump would need to offer something to Putin in return. Maybe the attention of the World Cup and the success of the Russian teams will put Putin in good shape.
In a perfect world, the summit would work toward a vision for a new Syria with a decent government. In this one, the best hope is to deprive Assad of his Iranian muscle and convince Russia to stop allowing the fabrication of Iranian misdeeds there. The current tragedy in Daraa will not be halted by all that will happen at the summit, nor will it be mitigated by Israeli humanitarian aid. This chance has passed. Now is the time to think about preventing the next Daraa.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Therese Raphael at [email protected]
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