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Belarussian military jets fly during the Zapad 2017 war games near the village of Volka, Belarus, on September 19, 2017. REUTERS / Sergei Grits / Pool
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = " Peter Zwack "data-reactid =" 24 "> Peter Zwack
<p class =" web-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mo (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm "type =" text "content =" Security, Europe "data-reactid =" 25 "> Security, Europe
The Allies of Trump and I & # 3 America must remain firm without getting drowsy in the war. [19659008] Such are the stakes of the NATO and Trump-Putin summits
<p class = s-canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em ) – sm "type =" text "content =" The summit between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin scheduled for July 16 in Helsinki is now a certainty.While all these meetings between the United States and Russia have a strategic weight, which is crucial.The Russian meeting is preceded by Trump's frequent participation at the summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on 11 and 12 July and a visit to a worried United Kingdom someday.This means that the summit in Helsinki will culminate what could turn out to be the most important six-day period of this century. summit between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled for July 16 in Helsinki, is now a certainty. Although all these meetings between the United States and Russia have a strategic weight, this one is crucial: the Russian meeting is preceded by Trump's assiduous participation at the summit of the Treaty Organization of the United States. North Atlantic (NATO) on 11 and 12 July. This means that the summit of Helsinki will culminate what could turn out to be the most important six-day period of this century: every foreign power – especially China – will watch closely.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = " President Vladimir Putin's obvious goal is cementing and expanding its remarkable strategic achievements of recent years.American objectives are unclear. "data-reactid =" 29 "> The obvious goal of President Vladimir Putin is consolidating and extending his remarkable strategic achievements of recent years. ] <p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = " This is a crisis, and it is time for both sides of the US national political scene to show their unity.The US has its existential security priorities.Washington needs a bipartisan approach to pursue real progress in relations with Russia but also to minimize the prospect of irreparable harm inflicted by reprehensible behavior.With an informed, experienced and ruthless interlocutor like Putin, the US president and the government as a whole must be on their guard. Mutual interest could reassure Americans and their nervous allies, but Washington dares not sweep or downplay fundamental concerns about the long-term security of America or that of its allies truly essential in the long run. "data-reactid =" 30 "> It's a crisis, and it's time for both sides of the US national political scene to show their unity.The United States has their existential security priorities at stake. Washington needs a bipartisan An approach to pursue real progress in relations with Russia, but also to minimize the prospect of irreparable damage inflicted by rogue behavior Faced with a wise interlocutor Experienced and ruthless as Putin, the US President and the entire government must be on their guard, spheres of mutual interest could be reassuring to us and to the nervous allies of America, but Washington does not want to be safe. dare not sweep or downplay the fundamental concerns of the United States in the long-term .. rm security – or that of its truly essential long-term allies
<p class = "t oile-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – -sm "type =" text "content =" What happens – or does not happen – initially to NATO will be closely monitored and analyzed on the eve of the United States-Russia summit. This includes in particular the atmosphere, the mood and the ability of America and its allies to continue and collectively plan long-term crises. The results of this assessment will inform Putin's position and negotiating position. In addition, this may go beyond what Washington already anticipates. This will certainly play a role in the psychology of the meeting, the strategy and tactics of discussion, negotiation and diplomacy that go beyond this one-to-one meeting. In fact, the Trump-Putin summit will inform US foreign and domestic policy in the foreseeable future. "Data-reactid =" 31 "> What happens – or does not happen – initially to NATO will be closely monitored and analyzed On the eve of the summit between the United States and Russia, the The atmosphere, the mood and the ability of America and its allies to collectively pursue and plan long-term crises are particularly important.In addition, this may go beyond the outline that Washington anticipates already, and this will certainly play in the psychology of the meeting, the strategy and tactics of discussion, negotiation and diplomacy that go further than this individual meeting.In fact, the Trump-Putin summit will inform the foreign and domestic policy of the United States in the foreseeable future
<p class = "canvas-atom web-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8 em) – sm" type = "text" content = " As such, the meaning The three encounters Trump to Fri ir, especially NATO and Helsinki, now make them inextricably linked. If the president and his twenty-eight NATO counterparts could pass through a frankly lively, frank but somewhat collegiate session, it would level the playing field with Russia. This would be particularly true if the NATO summit resulted in a message of unity and resolution, which sends a powerful message to the Russians. "data-reactid =" 32 "> As such, the significance of the next three Trump meetings, especially NATO and Helsinki, now makes them inextricably linked.If the President and his twenty Eight NATO counterparts can get through a sincere, frank but somehow collegial session, he would level the playing field with Russia, especially if the NATO summit results in a message of Unity and resolution, which sends a powerful message to the Russians.
If Russia sees or sees worse the rancor and division of NATO allies, the Trump-Putin summit will become immeasurably perilous for the future. NATO, the existence of sixty-nine years, would be in danger.
This is a potential moment, a strategic moment when many things can go wrong, but it is also essential to focus President Trump, will he remain disciplined and on the message, and if he improvises, any aspect of such could be really positive?
<p class = "web-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mo (0 ) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm "type =" text "content =" This is essential Here we review the fundamentals of why it is so important that these two men, world leaders and deadly nuclear nations, develop a relationship, as unpleasant as it may seem to some. "data-reactid =" 39 "> It is essential that we review the fundamental principles for which it is so important that these two men, the leaders of the most deadly and most nuclear nations of the world, develop a relationship as unpleasant as it may seem to some
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) –sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = " text "content =" The first and most formidable and powerful US and Russian military platforms continue to fly, navigate and face each other around the world. This proximity, particularly during periods of tension, coupled with a shortage of military-military contacts to mitigate the dangers of an accident or a rapid cyber incident risking a regional or global disaster "data -reactid = "40"> and the most frightening and powerful US and Russian military platforms continue to fly, navigate and face each other around the world, especially in times of tension and contact military to military to mitigate the dangers of a cyber accident an incident at risk of a regional or global disaster
<p class = "canvas-atom web-text Mb (1.0em) Mo (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm "type =" text "content =" Therefore, a hierarchy of pragmatic contacts from strategic down to operational and even tactical must be re-established worldwide between America and the Russi e. Goodness will not flow from the bottom up, but rather starts with the presidents. Nothing of a stabilizing consequence will happen without a certain relationship between the two. From there, the high-level military contacts between Washington DC, Brussels and Moscow could be expanded and strengthened. These conduits should be constructed to include US and Russian military commanders and staffs worldwide, representing the corresponding forces in the Indo-Pacific, European, Middle East and Arctic nuclear forces. and strategic. "data-reactid =" 41 "> Therefore, a hierarchy of pragmatic contacts from strategic down to operational and even tactical tops must be re-established worldwide between America and Russia. Nothing stabilizing will occur without a relationship between the two, which would expand and strengthen the existing high-level military contacts between Washington DC, Brussels and Moscow, and the Russian commanders and military headquarters in Russia. the whole world, representing the corresponding forces in the Indo-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, the Arctic and strategic nuclear forces
<p class = "canvas-atom web -text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm "type =" text "content =" The familiarity and the "demonization" that would result from a frank and regular dialogue between these key interlocutors in the world are particularly important in a l & # 39; 39, when the operational leaders of the United States, NATO, and Russia rarely meet. Major changes in the relationship, attitude or posture do not happen by magic. This requires planned meetings between authorized interlocutors, face-to-face meetings bringing a semblance of relationship even if they are stressed and suspicious. It is from this meeting that an understanding on key issues, if not an agreement, can emerge with some personal familiarity that helps break down this quasi-organic mistrust. We do not want commanders who have never met to try to solve a quick crisis in remote areas of Washington DC or Moscow. "data-reactid =" 42 "> The familiarity and" demonization "that would result from a frank and regular dialogue between these key interlocutors in the world are particularly important at a time when operational leaders American, American and Russian Major changes in the relationship, attitude or posture do not happen as if by magic, which requires planned meetings between authorized interlocutors, face-to-face meetings providing a semblance of even if stressed and suspicious, understanding on key issues, if not an agreement, can emerge with personal familiarity that helps break down this quasi-organic mistrust.We do not want commanders who have never met try to deconflict a rapid crisis in remote areas of Washington DC or Moscow
Paradoxically, these links were more robust during the The depths of the Cold War, but fortunately, the current deconfliction mechanism between R Ususse and US forces in Syria and the surrounding area offer a possible base from which to build. In retrospect, as difficult as it may seem, we saw another example of this in mid-1990s Bosnia where US, NATO, and Russian forces were working to contain the violence that had engulfed the United States. former Yugoslavia after its dissolution. "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = " Providing context for this discussion, I just spent two weeks In Russia, I visited Moscow and two provincial towns in the hinterland, and I met many Russian veterans, thinkers and academics, citizens and expatriates, and the prospect of being in a hinterland. a Trump-Putin summit was in the air but not confirmed.Russia, almost defiant, strongly supports, despite the occasional outbreaks and conflagrations, a re-elected Putin who appears firmly and confidently in the saddle of Russia after eighteen years of power – its eleven-mile Kerch Strait connector bridge The mainland of eastern Crimea is annexed to Crimea and the state media pays particular attention to the G7's discord recently announced US tariffs, the level of distrust of the entire United States and the West was even higher compared to my stay in Moscow in 2014 and apparently more petty. This level of mistrust and wickedness is also reflected in US views towards Russia. Particularly unsettling was a discussion about the possibility of a war – amplified by late-night public television – with the United States and the West that permeated not only the political and political entities, but also the society Russian. The Russians do not want war, but are preparing militarily and socially for it, in a way that is difficult for our own distracted public to understand. "data-reactid =" 44 "> Context of this discussion I have just spent two weeks in Russia visiting Moscow and two provincial towns in the hinterland, I spoke to many Russian veterans, thinkers and academics, citizens and expats … The prospect of a Trump – Putin summit was in the air but not confirmed. is a proud, almost defying Russia, who firmly supports, despite occasional outbreaks and conflagrations, a re-elected Putin who appears firmly and confidently in the Russian saddle after eighteen years of power., rejoicing in the completion of its eleven-mile Kerch Strait connector bridge from mainland Russia to annexed Crimea, and the state media have been very attentive to the G7 discord and recently announced US tariffs. vis-à-vis the United States and the West was enc highest since my stay in Moscow in 2014 and apparently more petty. This level of mistrust and wickedness is also reflected in US views towards Russia. Particularly unsettling was a discussion about the possibility of a war – amplified by late-night public television – with the United States and the West that permeated not only the political and political entities, but also the society Russian. The Russians do not want war, but they are preparing for it militarily and socially in such a way that it is difficult for our own distracted public to probe.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = " Putin's Russia seems to be to fend off and play its economic and geostrategic weak hand exceptionally well and flexibly during these complex times.It seems that this appropriately diverts the internal reactions of the state-controlled media and the constant denial of bad news and news. flagrant acts.The sanctions regime was imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and its subsequent transgressions.Elites and slow down the military modernization, they also seem to be no longer as coercive as what appeared between 2014 and 2016. Contagion solutions proliferate whether it is through food grown locally in all-season greenhouses and Russia.A Asia, the Caucasus and even some of Europe.Russia carries on own terminated and, until a point hard to define, the Russian population, including most of its youth, is on board and proud of its hardness proclaimed. "data-reactid =" 45 "> Putin's Russia seems to be getting by and playing its weak economic and geostrategic hand exceptionally well and flexibly during these complex times.The sanctions regime has been placed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and subsequent transgressions.While these embargoes remain very irritating to the Russian elites and slow down the military modernization, they also do not seem The alternatives are proliferating as well through cultivated food products locally in all-season greenhouses as Russia has increased its imports from China, Central Asia, the Caucasus and even Europe., to a point difficult to define, the Russian population – including most of her youth – is aboard and proud tenacity roclaimed.
<p class = "web-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mo (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm "type =" tex te "content =" This is the environment in Russia and the source of the renewed strength and confidence of Vladimir Putin that serves as a backdrop to his meeting with President Trump.In addition, Trump despite his own confidence represents a politically divided America, which is the key member of an increasingly uncertain Alliance. After winning the presidential election, the Russians were disappointed when relations further deteriorated, and I found that the Russian population, although distrustful, wants better relations with the government. America and hope that Trump and Putin In particular, the Russian mainstream, perhaps as a manifestation of its totally different societies, does not fully understand the depths of American anger with its current regime, especially on the intrusions of the Russia in cyberspace. to the cherished body politic of America during the presidential campaign of 2016. "data-reactid =" 46 "> It is the environment in Russia and the source of the force and the renewed confidence of Vladimir Putin that serves as a backdrop to his meeting with President Trump.In addition, Trump, despite his own confidence, represents a politically divided America, which is the key member of an Alliance of Russians were positive, in some cases exalted, when he won the presidential election, but then disappointed when relations continued to worsen.My canvas discerned that the Russian population, while wary , wants better relations with America and hopes that Trump and Putin can establish a favorable relationship and reduce tensions.In particular, the Russian mainstream, perhaps as a manifestation of its totally different societies, does not does not fully comprehend the depths of American anger with his current regime, especially on Russia's intrusions into the beloved political body of the United States during the 2016 presidential campaign.
<p class = "canvas-atom web -text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm "type =" text "content =" In conclusion to borrow the famous line of Churchill, a large part of the relationship of the America with Russia remains "an enigma shrouded in a mystery inside an enigma." The United States must come out of this summit with at least a small fraction of the tension points described here. -above. Otherwise, if the summit fails, America and Russia are doomed to continue living in an increasingly dangerous world, where the over-reaction is based on the wrong calculation of the threat. and in conclusion, to borrow Churchill's famous phrase, much of America's relationship with Russia remains "an enigma shrouded in a mystery inside Russia." "data-reactid =" 47 "> an enigma." The United States must come out of this summit with at least a small fraction of the voltage reduction points described above. the barriers of perception and would help to demystify each other.If otherwise, if the summit fails, America and Russia are doomed to continue living in an increasingly dangerous world, where overreaction based on the error of the threat and the intention could ruin all that is dear to us.] <p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8 em) – sm "type =" text "content =" Brig. Gen. (retired Peter B. Zwack writes as a senior researcher from Russia-Eurasia at the National Strategic Studies Institute of the University of National Defense, it is his own views and perspectives, and he publishes a personal memoir of his experiences in Russia the Volga – later this year "data-reactid =" 48 "> Brig. Gen. (retired) Peter B. Zwack writes as the Russia-Eurasia Fellow of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the University of National Defense.It is his own views and perspectives.He publishes a dissertation staff of his experiments in Russia – Swimming of the Volga – later this year
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm "type =" text "content =" Image: Belarussian military jets fly during Zap war games ad 2017 near the village of Volka, Belarus, 19 September 2017. REUTERS / Sergey Grits / Pool "data-reactid =" 49 "> Image: Belarusian military jets fly during Zapad war games 2017 near the village of Volka, Belarus, September 19, 2017. REUTERS / Sergei Grits / Pool
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