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Michał Żuławiński
None
the interest rate developments by 2020, a good economic situation in Poland and
no worries about the zloty and the prices of real estate – these are the main topics covered in the course
press conference with the participation of NBP President Adam Glapiński
Monetary Policy Council new
decided to leave interest rates at the lowest level ever .
The decision, in line with expectations, has shifted the burden of attention
a press conference during which, in addition to the president of the NBP, two
Members of the MPC: Łukasz Hardt and Jerzy Żyżyński
New Predictions
At the beginning of today's lecture, Adam Glapiński read
the content of the instruction MPC. This is in its entirety available
on the NBP website the most interesting fragments traditionally related to the linden tree forecast
central bank analysts concerning the Polish economy. Annual
-
Price dynamics will be with a probability of 50% in the range of 1.5 to 2.1%
in 2018 (against 1.6-2.5% in the projection of March 2018), 1.9-3.5% in 2019.
(compared to 1.7-3.6%) and 1.7-3.9% in 2020 (compared to 1.9-4.1%) -
the annual growth rate of GDP according to this projection will be 50%
probability of 4.0-5.2% in 2018 (versus 3.5-5.0% in the projection
from March 2018), from 2.8 to 7.7% in 2019 (compared to 2.8 to 4.8%) and from 2.4 to 4.3% in 2020.
(compared to 2.6-4.6%). - In the notice
Advice on current information and projections results indicate favorable outlook
increase in activity in the Polish economy despite the expected decline
GDP growth in the following years.
Glapiński: until 2020
rates may be stable
At the beginning of the series of questions, the NBP governor again expressed his
I believe that there are no factors that could justify an increase in interest rates
over the next 2.5 years
– The projection reinforces my personal belief that it's the end
2020 will not change the level of interest rates – said Glapiński.
– The projection shows a good or even excellent situation
Economic and financial growth of Poland until the end of 2020. Inflation, both CPI and
is close to the target; the economic growth rate is high but it will
Slightly slow, he will always be close to the natural foot; unemployment is
historically low; there is no imbalance in the economy. We still have an excellent
development trail – fast and sustainable growth with fast but not causing
an imbalance in the growth rate. You can not imagine a better situation –
he said. As Glapiński noted, Polish growth must be considered "in the context
situation in other countries of the EU "because it is currently" a good time in history
development of Europe. "
Monetary policy council without dogma, ECB
important
– We will live,
we'll see – that's how the president of NBP answered the question of whether the next decision
The board will raise interest rates or there is a scenario on the table
cuts.
– Today, the members
The Monetary Policy Council deliberately spoke in camera, but it is clean
the speculation. I can say what I always say – we have a diversified RPP that does not
is subject to dogmatic restrictions in its decisions. There are no people who
they are fierce hawks or doves. We will not hesitate to hike
or a reduction if necessary. I do not see any factor in the new projection,
to make decisions – he said
– According to
with the latest data, I see no reason to change the level of interest rates to
end of 2020. But I will not hesitate if I have to decide
in one direction or another. I am not bound by any ideology, no one is on us
exerts pressure – he added
One of the questions concerned the possible response of NBP to activities
The European Central Bank, which has entered the path of policy change
monetary policy
– Si
The ECB will start changing interest rates, this will be a very important signal for us.
Without this signal, there is no reason to think of anything. For now, the limits of the ECB
quantitative easing and it will be completely abandoned in December. Is
tighten the policy? No. This is the limit of the money crisis created by
central bank. That's putting a dam. Please remember that this is a limitation
another shot – that was poured, he stays. The balance is huge, these funds
they are in the system – reminded Glapiński.
The president of NBP also recalled that he was headed by him
the institution can also reach for unconventional ones if necessary
instruments
– We have
Such a mandate and we can enjoy it anytime, that's the whole pallet
actions that have been taken in Europe. We have been doing it for over 2 years
we analyzed everything, we got to know the experience of other banks.
Potentially it is possible, but for the moment there is no need –
he said.
Stable loans at risk for the budget
Chairman of the Monetary Policy Council
he was also questioned about the position regarding fixed mortgages
interest rate that the president of UOKiK issued for banks
– There is no
no obstacles for banks to offer such loans. By definition, however
such a loan is more expensive and may be less advantageous to the lessee, except that
it gives stability and the ability to plan repayments – said Glapiński.
– People
postulate the introduction of a loan with a fixed interest rate is about something
another. It is the public support that supports such a loan, to support
public institutions may have to pay extra for such a loan.
I can not stand this because it could put us on a higher risk path
financial burden on the budget – he added
– Number
the loans contracted increase because income and employment increase. Society forever
zloty loans take more. And that makes us happy. The housing market is
However, a free market characterized by its cycles. This is not
However, it is a question of uncertainty or risk, as for free loans –
he declared
The zloty does not raise concerns
Although
the president of the central bank agreed, Adam Glapiński did not want to concretely
talk about the current zloty exchange rate it's at a higher level of generality
certainly tried to calm the moods around the Polish currency.
– Our Constitution
the commitment to stabilize the zloty does not mean the exchange rate from zloty to others
currency, especially for currencies such as the dollar, which is growing rapidly –
he said
– Drop in the race
the zloty against the dollar had no negative impact on the Polish economy,
as was the appreciation of the zloty last year. Other than that, there was no profit
central bank, because it's a purely billable issue, it's not worrying
we have not noted the aspects – he added
– Our internal
Foundations are very certain, but the zloty and other currencies of developing countries
it's placed in a basket. Some investors are looking at the zloty in
In the context of the forint, to read it, etc. The zloty itself has solid foundations and there is no
doubts. Poland is an oasis for safe investment, we want this one
the state is maintained because we will depend on capital for decades
He noted that the foreign currency, which will invest here,
The next two-day decision meeting of the MPC will take place after the holidays, 4-5.
September. A full report on the macroeconomic forecast of the National Bank of Poland will however be published.
July.
Michał Żuławiński
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