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But while several polls place Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the result, according to his rivals, of a hidden backing of the country's powerful military organization, other investigations suggest the result is too close to call.
Analysts are also divided on whether a victory for Khan would actually be different from a return to power for his main rival, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the party's Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Many experts claim that it will be the status quo, regardless of the winner of the elections, with the military – who has ruled the country directly or indirectly for much of its 71-year history – remaining the de facto leader of Pakistan.
Close race
Michael Kugelman, South Asian specialist at the US-based Wilson Center, said the army remained "very attached" to the senior ranks of the United States. power in Pakistan.
"He remains powerful and popular even amid allegations of electoral interference, and the most likely outcome of the elections – a weak coalition government – is the best scenario of the army," he said. he said.
Tensions increased earlier this month when Sharif was jailed for 10 years for corruption charges that led him to resign last year.
He claimed that the army is assisting a "witch hunt" to prevent the ruling PML-N – now led by his brother and Shahbaz Sharif election candidate – from winning a second term in power.
In a deliberate contrast with Sharif family scandal, Khan campaigned for a "new Pakistan" on a reformist and anti-corruption list, arguing that the country is demanding a clean nationalist government and a clean break from the past. .
The 65-year-old has ousted allegations of clandestine support from the army, although his references to cricket to "neutral referees" and to an "even playing field" have become less numerous. the electoral trail
. talk to an audience that understands issues like corruption and how that affects their lives, "he said earlier this month. "They now understand (the) correlation between corruption (and) poverty, unemployment (and) inflation."
Potential for Change
Khan is committed to breaking the "status quo" of the two decades-old parties of the PML-N and its historical rival , the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), which should finish in third place.
His campaign drew the imagination of young and middle-class Pakistanis. In 2013, PTI became the third largest party in the country, taking control of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province.
Celebrating his celebrity as the man who brought back the cricket world cup in 1992, and his philanthropic record of hospital buildings that provide cancer treatment for the poor, the heartthob educated by Oxford is now climbing high.
Khan has "many faces, as a sportsman and hero, that's one of the reasons for his popularity – his charisma," said journalist and author Zahid Hussain.
Some see Khan's victory in 2018 as a potential turning point for Pakistan.
"Since this would be the first time that the PML-N / PPP's grip is broken, this would by definition represent a change" Madiha Afzal, a member of the Brookings Institute
"Khan's policy is very different from both parties, his victory could therefore mark a political change as usual. "
Afzal added Khan's emphasis on fighting corruption. health services differ from the policies of the two main parties, as does its conservatism.
"It is much further to the right than both, even the PML-N which was traditionally known as center-right," she said
. convicted under Pakistan's controversial blasphemy law and his support for legislation persecuting the country's Ahmadiyya – a minority Muslim movement – as heretics. "Khan's political positions – of his deep opposition to the PML-N and his refusal to criticize the military for his strong support for solving the Kashmir crisis – align strongly with those of the army," said Kugelman, the Wilson Center. analyst, referring to the longstanding dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.
Politics as usual?
While Khan may differ from his rivals on paper, some analysts have said that he may be embarrassed in any attempt to deliver on his agenda because of the host of politicians weathervane with dubious loyalty that he recruited.
"He will be surrounded by defectors, how can he control these people, without loyalty or ideological commitment," said Rahimullah Yusufzai, a seasoned political observer.
His recruitment of "elected officials" was part of his attempt to penetrate the PML-N's grip on his political stronghold, Punjab, the richest and most populous province in the country.
Analysts are uncertain whether the gambit has paid off as the PML-N, boosted by Sharif's imprisonment, has attracted large crowds of supporters to gatherings in the province, while those of Khan have been relatively discreet. imprisonment may still lead voters angry at Pakistan's rampant corruption to support PTI.
The imprisonment of Sharif could benefit his party, however, with some analysts saying that he could make PML-N more palatable to the military now that he is controlled by his brother.
"Shahbaz said that he would work with the military establishment, so that he will not get his hands on foreign policy or on non-state militant groups," Afzal said. from Brookings.
As Chief Minister of Punjab Province, Shahbaz Sharif won applause as a director, especially for infrastructure development. "He could be a very successful prime minister," added Afzal
An Uncertain Future
Nearly all analysts agreed that an outright victory for one or the other party was unlikely, meaning that Pakistan would end up with a coalition government, probably the PPP – led by the political scientist Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, 29 years old. one of the other parties.
"It has been quite a while that Pakistan's political environment is so tense and polarized, so I imagine that any coalition will be fractious and divided," Kugelman said.
"Given the pressing political challenges Pakistan now faces, a weak coalition would be bad news and very dangerous as well. Pakistan is facing a growing economic crisis caused by declining reserves and balance-of-payments problems. payments. "
No elected Prime Minister has ever held office for five years, even though they appeared to have the full support of the military establishment.
"When one of these puppets eventually sought to cut her strings after she came to power, she was overthrown by another, invariably in partnership with the army and justice," said Tom Hussain, journalist and political commentator. Sharif has experienced it, and analysts have predicted that the same fate could wait for Khan if he managed to become the leader of Pakistan.
"Some of his traits – his lack of desire to conduct politics as usual, his stubbornness – will mean that, if his relationship with the military gets colder, he could lose faster than politicians in the past, and worse, "said Afzal. "But once in power, he could also adapt."
CNN's Euan McKirdy contributed to the report.
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