BIEC report. An acceleration of the economy is unlikely

The indicator of advanced economic indicators (WWK), which indicates the future trends of the Polish economy, increased by 1,5 point compared to the previous month – according to the latest study of the Office of Investment and Economic Cycles ( BIEC).

Despite this increase, WWK is 4.5 points below the peak of the beginning of the year and its recent improvement has not offset the losses of the last three months.

"The reversal of the downturn in the economy in the coming months is therefore unlikely, especially in the face of the obvious signs of a slowing economic climate throughout Europe." Another internal factor limiting the activity of entrepreneurs is the rising cost of economic activity, which reduces the competitiveness of our offer in foreign markets, "he added.

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The experts add that the decline in orders in the automotive industry is a characteristic manifestation of the slowdown of our main foreign trading partners, which has repercussions on the situation of Polish companies. Orders in this sector have been declining for more than a year and, in November, the rate of entry for the first time since the fall of 2014 has taken a negative value.

"The coming months are likely to be equally unfavorable for businesses: rising energy prices, raising the minimum wage, increasing social security contributions and putting pressure on increases due to the labor shortage. are the fundamental factors that drive up the costs of entrepreneurs.Already, nearly 60% of employers consider the costs economic activity is an important factor limiting their development, more companies than in the past are threatened with bankruptcy and among contractors, the phenomenon of payment dead ends is intensifying, "calculates the BIEC.

Labor productivity in processing firms has further declined, which is particularly responsible for low levels of private sector investment in modern technologies.