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President Trump and British Prime Minister Theresa May hold hands at the end of their joint press conference in Buckinghamshire, England, on July 13. (Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP)
On his first visit to England, Donald Trump quite the splash. In an interview with the British newspaper The Sun, Trump criticized British Prime Minister Theresa May, suggesting that his approach to Brexit "would likely kill" any trade agreement between Britain and the United States. "I told Theresa May how to do it, but she did not listen to me," he said. The next day, he backtracked, insisting that the relationship between the two countries remained "the highest level of special."
Trump's visit came after a chaotic week in British politics. A few days earlier, two prominent ministers resigned from the government's approach to Brexit: Foreign Minister Boris Johnson, one of Brexit's most influential attorneys, and Brexit Secretary David Davis. Four junior government members resign, as well as two vice presidents of the Conservative Party
What is happening in British politics – and what does all this mean for negotiations on Brexit?
19659007] The resignations came after May announced a new Brexit strategy called "Sweet Brexit", which would keep Britain closely aligned with the rules established by the European Union . According to the government's plan, Britain would remain in the single market for EU goods, allowing British manufacturing and agricultural companies to continue trading freely with Europe. Moreover, this approach would help the British government avoid reimposing border controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland – helping to preserve the peace treaty that officially ended to the conflict in 1998. Britain should also accept the future EU regulations. Services, for their part, such as finance and law, which account for about 80% of the UK economy, would receive less access to the US market. The European Court of Justice would probably play a role in the settlement of disputes.
[The Irish border crashed Brexit negotiations. Here’s what you need to know.]
Johnson and other "hard Brexiters" want a sharper break with the EU They view May's approach as an unacceptable betrayal of British sovereignty – because after Brexit, Britain would remain subject to EU Johnson
In his letter of resignation Johnson writes that Brexit "is dying, suffocated by a useless self-doubt" and that the Great Britain Britain "really headed for status" Jacob Rees-Mogg, one of the leading pro-Brexit conservatives, describes May's plan as the "greatest vassalage since King John paid tribute to Philip II to the Gully in 1200 ". Obeying the EU The laws, they stressed – just as Trump did – will also make it more difficult for Britain to enter into external trade agreements. If Britain is to respect EU rules on agricultural products, for example, it will have a hard time reaching a comprehensive agreement with the US – the United States will probably want Britain to accept some US products, such as certain genetically modified crops. Violating the EU
These objections may be moot, as it is unlikely that European leaders will accept May's proposal. She wants to access the single market property while insisting that unrestricted immigration must stop. But the EU considers the "four freedoms" of the single market – the free movement of goods, services, capital and, above all, people – as "indivisible", which means that Britain can not choose one without accept the rest. [19659011] After a senior citizen of the EU official "it is not a matter of saying no to these proposals, but when and how we do it." [19659011] What happens next?
Trump's visit exacerbated tensions within the Conservative Party. In a record recently disclosed Johnson imagined Trump negotiating Brexit. "He would go into bloody hard," said Johnson. "There would be all kinds of chaos … In fact, you could get somewhere." In his interview with the Sun, Trump, in turn, said that Johnson would "make a great prime minister." Johnson: In a recent poll 77 percent of Britons said that they had an unfavorable opinion of Trump, and there were big demonstrations throughout his visit.
For now, tough conservatives will struggle to overthrow May. The triggering of a leadership election in the Conservative Party requires 48 deputies – 15 percent of party representatives – to call for a vote of no confidence. This may be feasible: The European Research Group, a pro-Brexit group of Conservative MPs, has about about 70 members . But to win the vote, they need a majority of the party, at least 159 deputies, which would be a heavy burden. No leader is waiting behind the scenes who could unify the party. Eurosceptic rebels are divided among several suitors. Most conservatives are reluctant to cause unrest that could upset the party's deal with the Democratic Unionist Party, a small far-right party in Northern Ireland whose conservatives depend to get their support. This could trigger new elections, which they might well lose.
[The real reason the U.K. voted for Brexit? Jobs lost to Chinese competition.]
While the month of May seems to survive this crisis, it may be that the next is not long. The US holds its next summit in October. May hopes to use it to sign a final agreement on Brexit, which will then require Parliament's approval. Because the month of May has only a slight majority, some conservative rebels can block any market that they do not like.
Moreover, Labor MPs will probably not support a Conservative plan if they see an opportunity to overthrow the government. (Labor's own policy on Brexit remains unclear.) If May loses the vote on any matter she eventually reaches, and the EU refuses to restart negotiations, the result could be new elections, the Brexit without a negotiated settlement or even a second referendum. With or without agreement, Britain must leave the US at 11 pm on March 29, 2019; If there is no agreement, it would become just another foreign nation working with the EU on terms that would be little different from those that apply. , say, in the United States or China.
For all the fireworks, Trump's visit does not change the dynamics that make Brexit so difficult. May must reach an agreement that honors a referendum result against which she has campaigned; which unites a long-broken Conservative Party on Britain's relationship with Europe; this minimizes the economic damage of Brexit; and this is acceptable for a qualified majority of the 27 other EU countries. And she has to do all this with a tiny parliamentary majority – and she has only eight months left.
Sam Winter-Levy is a PhD student in politics at Princeton University.
Alasdair Phillips-Robins is Editor-in-Chief at Foreign Affairs
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