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President Trump is a man who judges his success stories – both real and embellished. But his trade war turns anecdotes against him, and there are more and more signs of trouble, even though the war officially began on Friday.
A poll conducted by The Washington Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University asked if people thought that Trump's "known taxes" against China were a good thing or a wrong, in the light of reports that China will respond with its own tariffs on US products. In total, 56% of voters thought the situation was bad for US jobs
. However, the most important concern was the cost of the products. About three-quarters of voters – 73% – are worried about the impact of the trade war on them
and this concern was even greater in Battle House districts who will decide on elections. In these districts, 78% said that the trade war with China would be bad for the price of the products. And even a strong majority of Republicans nationwide – 56% – shared this concern
The numbers come about a week after we had the first important news about companies that meet the rates, which also applied in Canada, Mexico and Europe. Union. To this day, a major American nail company, Mid-Continent Nail of Missouri, has laid off 60 employees and is facing its potential demise by the end of summer. Then came the more important case of Harley-Davidson, the motorcycle manufacturer that said it would move more of its production overseas facing EU retaliatory tariffs Now, BMW and General Motors are putting in place Guard against rising auto prices, Volvo could cancel 4000 new jobs expected in South Carolina, and polysilicon manufacturer REC Silicon has announced that it would fire 100 people – citing all tariffs.
Trump's decision to launch trade wars with the EU, China and our North American neighbors will eventually succeed. These judgments are for economists to do months and years on the line. They must also take into account the global economy and the many factors that play it. And a dozen or a dozen companies that manufacture factories, file people or move production, painful for real people in real time, could be the cost of creating jobs in other industries or create a better trade balance.
This message seems to be passing – at least for Trump's base. While the Republicans worry about the cost of products by a margin of 56-37, they think that the trade war with China will actually be good for US jobs with a margin of 64 -29.
Pain is also the political point. We have a president who, from his early days as president-elect, praised the companies that brought home jobs as a sign of his prowess and shone when companies announced bonuses to employees in light of the reductions in sales. Government taxes. Despite all the credit that Trump deserved for these events or the difference between the $ 1,000 bonus, Trump saw an opportunity to demonstrate real tangible progress for real people.
He now knows the other side of this anecdotal piece. And now that the real and tangible does not seem so good, it is unleashed. Trump fought back at Harley Davidson for his announcement and even threatened to impose it. The message to other companies seems to be clear: Do not tell people that my rates are to blame for your bad economic news . I will punish you .
In addition to all this, Trump applies its tariffs not to a struggling economy, but to an economy that has been on a solid track for years. the unemployment rate is less than 4%. Given that we are close to what is traditionally considered full employment, and that the stock market has shown in recent months that corrections may be in reserve, moments like now are not ideal for politically boating. speaking. Changing things right now has a lot more risk of reversing current progress than the potential credit to sustain that progress.
And this and other polls, at the very least, suggest that there is skepticism as to Trump's approach. That does not mean that it will be an electoral failure in November; it simply means that it is probably an unnecessary risk – and a risk for a president who judges himself so often by anecdote.
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