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The test of Indian anti-satellite weapons took place on March 23rd. We wrote about it more widely. A rocket fired from Earth flew into space and struck a passing satellite, destroying it with the same energy of a collision. The Indian government has ensured that nothing would be a threat, as the interception has taken place in a low orbit. They were supposed to enter the atmosphere and burn in a few weeks.
NASA has another rating
Theoretically, it is so that they declare India. Most wires will really burn in a few weeks. The problem is that the piece will first become a threat to the International Space Station (ISS). This was revealed Tuesday by NASA's chief Jim Bridenstine. – It's a terrible thing, really terrible, to cause an event that puts the question into orbit even higher than the ISS. Such activity is not consistent with the vision of humanity in the space we want to pursue – he said without hiding his irritation.
The American calculated that the Indian test had resulted in the creation of 400 fragments, including 60 large (10 centimeters and more), in order to track them with the help of radars from the Earth. All have been cataloged and added to the database jointly managed by NASA and the US Army. Twenty-four of them have a circle around the Earth after orbits presenting a risk of collision with the ISS. After a few weeks, they will be released as a result of friction in the upper atmosphere and burn. Until then, they will be a threat.
Bridenstine did not specify the exact risk of a collision, but only indicated that it had been increased by 44% by India for 10 days. However, the risk must remain very low, as no change in the SSI has been implemented, which is usually done when there is more than a negligible chance of colliding with a object (more than 1,000 to 10,000). The ground control is supposed to follow the fragments of the Indian test and react if necessary.
2008 NASA graphics showing the world's largest "cosmic garbage". Today, there are many more Fig. NASA
An orbital disaster is possible
The risk of collision with various wastes in orbit, even if it is small, is treated with extreme gravity. The game between high speeds and therefore energy. Even miniature fragments that can not be located from Earth can cause serious damage after touching the ISS. The station is partially shielded for such an event, but it remains sensitive.
Humanity is usually faced with a serious problem of disaffection of space in the immediate vicinity of the Earth. There are still rockets, old satellites and various other waste since the middle of the last century. The US Army currently tracks about 18,000 of the largest objects whose dimensions are greater than 10 cm in diameter. At that, there are more or less the same big ones that are not followed and more than a hundred million smaller ones.
Already in 1978, NASA scientist Donald Kessler had formulated the theory that at one point litter in orbit would reach critical mass and that the chain reaction would begin. A small fracture due to a test like this will collide with another larger object, releasing more fragments. These will collide with others and so on. Theoretically, this can lead to total cataclysm and the destruction of all satellites and other objects sent by humans into their Earth orbit. An additional effect will be to make spaceflight impossible for a long time, as each vehicle leaving the atmosphere would quickly find itself under the "pale" fragments.
For fear that such a scenario will be realized, all the events considerably increasing the number of "cosmic waste" are treated in a very negative way. Anti-satellite weapon tests are one of the worst in this category. There are various works on orbital equipment methods, but they are still far from being put into practice.
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