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Fig. Stefan Maszewski / REPORTER
To avoid credit shock, credit is worth more than an allowance
People who have been mortgaged these last 6 years have no experience of increasing monthly payments. Speech of more than one million homes. For them, a series of interest rate hikes, which, if any, would be a shock – adheres to Open Finance.
The last rise in interest rates took place in May 2012 – more than 6 years ago. Throughout this period, mortgage holders, as long as they have observed changes in the payment rate, would only be a decrease in its value. As a result, long-term housing extension has become simpler. This state is so troubling that more than a million canceled mortgage loans in 2012-2018 are currently dormant. At least, this results from Open Finance estimates based on KNF and AMRON data – SAFRiN
Payments have dropped
Let's look at a specific example. The family will pay a loan of 300,000 zlotys in early 2012. z I promise to pay it in 30 years. At that time, the average margin was 2%. And that means that the first installment amounts to less than 2 thousand. z She falls very fast. By the end of 2012, the Monetary Policy Council will reduce interest rates. With them, the rate WIBOR, which is the percentage of almost all home loans.
See if the bank can be agreed on the loans in francs:
At the end of 2013, the family described can benefit about 20% of the niches, which means that the bank puts less than 1600. However, it would not be not the end of the good news coming from the headquarters of the National Bank of Poland. The MPC meeting there was to further reduce the cost of money – for the last time he decided to do it in March 2015. The effect would be that a small slice of the credit described falls below 1,400 z, or 200 savings on each payment. Since then, little has changed. The WIBOR 3M rate changes only slightly. Today, a family loaning more than 6 years ago has to spend about 1375 each month – more than 30% less than the first installment.
Public Finance
Payments Can Be Growing
However, you must remember that a good sequence can be made when it jumps. Already, the market is very conservative about forecasting interest rate hikes over the next two years – it results from current prices of interest rate futures. Economists expect two or three increases. On the other hand, the Monetary Policy Council seems to be relieved by the projections, suggesting that it does not exclude even a scenario of falling interest rates – if the economic situation l & # 39;
However, let us think about what would happen if the MPC decided on monetary policy, that is to say that it would grant loans in Polish zlotys, would cease. to be the cheapest in history.
Again, we consider the case of a 300-year loan for 300,000 zlotys. 2 million PLN on margins, which can now be considered attractive offers. The down payment of the loan borrowed from such an amount would rise to 1381 of the month. A single increase of 0.25 percentage points. this would mean an increase in the down payment of around 43 z with increments of only 1 point. percent. Modular model rises to 1556 with, and twice as large increases until 1741 with the monthly. And what would happen if the interest rates returned to the level of 2012, while the basic interest rate was even at the level of 4.75% (today it is not the case). is only 1.5%)? The deposit begins in 1986 with a month. It is almost 44% higher than currently
Open Finance
There is a solution
Anyone who is afraid of such a scenario should take an earlier level of debt credit
. For the sake of curiosity, it is worth noting that if our hypothetical family on the credit surplus savings zotwk through reduced interest rates, it would be unimaginable to raise the level before the last crisis, beginning symbolic of the collapse of Lehman Brothers investment bank. The loan deposit would not rise in this case above its maximum value. It should be remembered that in 2008, the basic interest rate was 5% to 6% (today it is only 1.5%).
Author: Bartosz Turek, Analyst, Open Finance
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