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The ING Financial Barometer survey, in which 1,000 respondents from Poland were surveyed, shows that the majority (2/3) of Poles expect a rise in housing prices in 2019. This will prompt many of us to take purchase decisions faster, which will again contribute to successive rate increases and may lead to the creation of a speculative bubble.
People who are convinced that the prices of apartments in the next will be higher, is more than 8 pp. only in the study of 2017. As indicates Karol Pogorzelski, economist at ING Bank Śląski:
We are at the time of the housing market crisis, an edge of the boom - prices for real estate growth have not been as high, but we are definitely building a record number of apartments. It is maintained at the same level, suggesting that it is the peak of production capacity. Prices are rising, recently this price increase has accelerated - it is already 6 to 7% this year. on an annual basis. The solstice signal is also the fact that the number of apartments sold is down, suggesting that Poles are starting to look closely at the market and feel that this increase is too high for them.
Poles are quite optimistic assess the situation on the housing market in the country. What is more, Poland is the only country participating in the survey, in which the percentage of people sharing the opinion that the housing situation is going in the right direction (39%) was higher than that of the opponents (35%). And yet the optimism of the Poles is down – by 5 pp. compared to 2017. Half of respondents who do not yet have an apartment expect to buy an apartment in the future. 24% he thinks he will not be able to afford it
Is it true that real estate prices never go down?
The survey also surveyed Polish respondents on their opinions on real estate prices. Pdrive from the she agreed with the statement that real estate prices never fall.
– The fact that real estate prices have never fallen is one of the cognitive traps that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, in several countries of the world, including Poland, a period of lower prices for houses and apartments started. This observation is troubling, as the (false) conviction of the steady rise in house and apartment prices can fuel the illusion that real estate investments can not be lost. The spread of the investment bubble on the real estate market is conducive to the popularization of such a vision – says Karol Pogorzelski. However, he adds that for this to happen, however, faster growth in mortgage sales would be necessary.
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