Polish GDP is slowing down. But not as much as stated by Czerwińska

GUS data on economic growth proved better than Finance Minister Teresa Czerwińska, said on Tuesday. Not 4.5 percent as she claimed, but the GDP was higher by 4.6%. year by year – GUS reported what is called a speedy respect. The whole economy generated a total value of PLN 2 115.7 billion.

This is the lowest growth rate since the second quarter of 2017. Since then, we have had a five per cent pace over five quarters. And yet, the budget needs money for "Kaczyński's Five". Everything now depends on GDP growth, because the VAT gap is already effectively exhausted.

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Compared to the previous quarter, according to seasonally adjusted data, GDP increased by 1.4%. And it's a very good information. This is one of the biggest increases in history. There were only six quarters in history with a better increase calculated quarterly.

When comparing non-seasonally adjusted data, where the GUS examines the difference in the number of working days, it can be said that the slowdown was influenced by the late date of the Easter holidays this year. We simply moved stores from March to April. In this way, the positive effect of consumption on the GDP indicator will probably appear in the second quarter.

For his part, Minister Czerwińska said Tuesday: – I would expect a lower dynamic in the coming quarters, but this slowdown will be moderate.

More data on GDP, that is, what has slowed down: whether it is a reduction in consumption, investment, or perhaps foreign trade, will only be known on 31 May, when the CSO will provide already extensive information.

What we already know, it is an increase of 7.6% of the first quarter of exports. and 5.4% imports, an improvement in the trade balance and an increase in retail sales of 5%. – much slower than a year ago (+ 8.4%). The production of the industry increased by 6.1%. against 5.6% a year ago. All indications are that consumption is the cause of the decline in the dynamics of the economy.