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Local elections will be held this fall. (Their exact date must be announced in mid-August). The election campaign of candidates for new presidents of the largest Polish cities is gaining momentum. The closest, the hottest.
The greatest battle is for the presidency of the President of Warsaw. Here, the Civic Platform invariably ruled for 12 years, and she put Rafał Trzaskowski into the fight. For Law and Justice winning elections in the capital would be the biggest triumph since 2015. Patryk Jaki is helping this group. Investigations by various research institutes show that Rafał Trzaskowski wins the fight so far. According to the study conducted in late June this year by CBM Indicator, commissioned by Patryk Jakiego's team, that Trzaskowski has 34.5%. support, and Jaki – 28.4%
Around the same time (June 27th), Wyborcza.pl published the results of a poll conducted by Kantar Public. They indicated a considerable advantage of Rafał Trzaskowski over Patryk Jakim – the former was 43 percent. voter support, and the other 21 percent. The two other candidates who recently joined the presidential struggles in Warsaw were far behind: 8% of them voted for Jan Śpiewak. among those surveyed, and after Andrzej Celiński – 6 percent
one of the last polls – from 4 to 5 July this year. – Directed by Pollster for "Wiadomości" TVP1 in turn indicates 32 percent. support for the PO candidate and 25 percent for the candidate PiS
Direct encounters with voters against the media activity
Krzysztof Tomczyński, account manager at Alert Media Communication, early start of the election campaigns of both candidates for good traffic from the point of view of communication. According to him, it is a good idea that Rafał Trzaskowski puts a lot of pressure on direct meetings and discussions with voters
– This is good especially for local elections where it is important to know the local needs. At the same time, it is a high-risk activity for the candidate, especially nowadays, where everyone through the cell can play the role of a reporter reporting the event to a wider audience. It's easy here for the provocations or pitfalls that Trzaskowski has already had, although they are not significant at the moment. The biggest burden of this candidate may be his image – an elite man, and Trzaskowski's statements only reinforce that image, which can have a significant impact on the outcome of the campaign –
Patryk Jakiego's analysis for the presence of the media, he is the subject of briefings for the media and various "events", which he organizes very often. – At the same time, the candidate's staff has a lot of mishaps – like putting a picture of Czech Praga in one place. However, both these errors and the question of the contradiction between what Patryk Jaki communicates as a candidate for the presidency and what he said earlier, for example in matters of worldview or sympathy for football, do not hurt his image. It seems that they are widely commented mainly in the group of voters who would not vote and for which they do not result in general citations – Krzysztof Tomczyński analysis.
After analyzing the current actions of both candidates, he can not designate the winner at the moment. He says that this issue is always open and that several factors will influence it. – Some of them are not entirely dependent on Patryk Jaki and Rafał Trzaskowski – for example, how many electors will be taken by the remaining candidates. On the other hand, the key influence on the outcome of the campaign will obviously be themselves. In this respect, the most important factor will be the mobilization of those who vote outside their electorate difficult. Until now, the main problem of reunification of voters is the national division in "anti-pis" against "anti-arrangement". A great advantage – I think the importance of the electoral victory – will be who will be able to go beyond this scheme, to show the inhabitants of Warsaw the concrete vision of the development and the conviction of the city –
Trzaskowski, What comes with the initiatives
Zbigniew Lazar, owner and president of the Modern Corp agency is significantly more critical in evaluating the election campaign in Warsaw, especially Rafał Trzaskowski. 1- The current course of the "pre-campaign" gives the impression that Rafał Trzaskowski has bad advisers or good advisers, but that he does not listen to them. Perhaps the feeling of supremacy that he had over Patryk Jakim at the start of this pre-campaign has he slept for his vigilance. Rafał Trzaskowski seems to run his actions casually, as he owed it to himself, so he does not have to try to prepare himself. Patryk Jaki shows that he wants it every day – Zbigniew Lazar analysis
He points out that in every election campaign, at every stage of the campaign, pro-activity counts. – For now, it's Patryk Jaki who proposes initiatives that he tries to describe and justify. Rafał Trzaskowski after a few hours tries to react to these initiatives and quickly convenes conferences. Because his actions are reactive and ad hoc, insufficiently prepared, he usually makes gaffes, which the media attract with pleasure. The campaign must show that "I have the following ideas for my city" – what does Patryk Jaki do, not "I wonder what city my city I do not need" – that Rafał Trzaskowski applies – comments our interlocutor. 19659002]
According to him, Trzaskowski also forgets that local elections do not matter the big political and global issues, but the specific daily issues related to the life of a given local community. This community and its needs should be well known
– Figuratively: "Equality, freedom, fraternity" are clichés for people who want "safe streets, friendly offices, efficient transportation, etc." When Patryk Jaki announced his intention to help drivers make the streets of Warsaw more passable, Rafał Trzaskowski responded by planning to build tens of kilometers of green roads to connect all neighborhoods so that Warsaw can walk from 39, one side of the capital to the other. Of course, the greatest dream of the Varsovians is to be able to walk without any problem, for example from Powsin to Białołęka, especially in November – note Zbigniew Lazar
Director of ModernCorp. He advises that the two candidates for the Warsaw president pay more attention to detail and do not act recklessly – as they both have learned convincingly – to unnecessarily not hand over ammunition at the opponent. Trzaskowski arrived by taxi in public transport, in interviews he talked about the freezing of funds by the EU until PO came back to power and Jaki missed a spot with a photo of the money. a bridge in Prague, instead of Warsaw. after the match Germany-Mexico. They should also take care of the selection of gadgets: a cap that should be more "facial" during grilling with Warsaw residents, and Trzaskowski's bench immediately replaced by something that is associated with energy and energy. active action –
And he warns: – The election campaigns are special beauty contests; we choose those we love and in whose company we feel good.
Trzaskowski's Favorite, With Less Potential
Marek Gieorgicy, Managing Partner of Clear Communication Group, Rafał Trzaskowski's campaign is somewhat similar to the Bronisław Komorowskieg's presidential campaign o – each subsequent activity of the campaign candidate is losing support. Our interlocutor claims that if he continues to do so, the result could be similar – delaying support and defeat in the end.
– From the beginning, the campaign does not follow Trzaskowski's thought. An attempt to position itself as a dynamic, modern candidate, full of energy and ideas has been unsuccessful. In part, this is due to embarrassing statements like that on the fact that we do not need CPK, because the Berlin airport is being built. The unfortunate comments show that the candidate is not ready to run the city. In addition, Trzaskowski's clumsiness in conducting a campaign in the network is a surprise. Until now, he was known for his creative and effective ideas of communicating with voters on the Internet. In the meantime, now this campaign on the network is losing. The followers of what are much more mobilized, Trzaskowski himself made mistakes – for example, by changing the biographical note on the site, to hide Krakow and put the emphasis on Warsaw – Marek Gieorgica analysis.
The Clear Communication Group expert appreciates the activity of Patryk Jakiego, who in his opinion is completely different from the actions of his opponent. – An unrecognized politician, who was previously unrelated to Warsaw, has become the face of a fight against the reprivatisation scandal, which is putting a lot of pressure on voters in the Civic Platform. In addition, Jaki strives to obtain the support of the center's voters, which is why some gestures towards them are already in the Visible campaign – consent for in vitro co-financing, consent to the parade of the center. ;equality. The problem that the candidate and his team have to face is the credibility of these actions – here Patryk Jaki will have to show himself with a little cunning. If he can convince the Varsovians that, despite his conservative views as president of the city, he is not blocking liberal initiatives and ideas for the development of the city, he is likely to seriously threaten Trzaskowski in the race to the Presidency – comments Marek Gieorgica. Rafał Trzaskowski is – despite misadventures and inconsiderate movements – the favorite of the Warsaw elections. He believes that Trzaskowski's problem may be that his support among various groups of voters is rather superficial, and therefore that they can easily be lost by demobilizing their constituents. – It's different in the case of Patryk Jakiego, who is very determined and diligent in this campaign, but there is no such potential to convince voters outside the hard electorate of the United Right. It should not be forgotten that the following candidates will join the campaign and strengthen their position above all on criticism of the current regime of the President and the party's candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski. This will certainly weaken it, and at the same time give Jakiego additional points, which will be a bit out of this discussion – points out our interlocutor
– advises that by evaluating both campaigns, refer to the opinions and comments of both candidates before announcing them to participate in the presidential race. In the general opinion, Trzaskowski was tried as a substantive and effective politician, hope of the liberal camp. In turn, What was the image of a rowdy and uncompromising politician who mobilizes the electorate very well difficult, but can not pursue a policy of conciliation. – The campaign shows that the previous hypotheses did not work. Trzaskowski is below expectation, while Jaki is doing surprisingly well – commented Marek Gieorgica.
He suggests that both candidates – having a little more time for the election – should correct their mistakes and defeat the mistakes of the opponent. In his opinion, Trzaskowski should try to avoid unfortunate statements and, if possible, ignore Jaki so as not to get involved in the direct discussion. Patryk Jaki, in turn, must show that he can wear the title of president before the last name – means to prove that he is not only able to do PR tricks, how to make a barbecue for them Varsovians (specially selected for this occasion), but also to professionally manage a large city. because this connotation is definitely missing.
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