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MEDELLÍN, Colombia – According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the forecast has been impressive even for the collapse of the Venezuelan economy: one million percent of inflation by the end of the year
rates around Latin America, a rally that included neighbors such as Chile (where inflation should be directed at 3 percent) and Peru (where growth should reach 3.7 percent).
But it is Venezuela that continues neighbors-with economic disintegration increasingly rampant.
The real gross domestic product, the value of goods and services produced in the economy and adjusted for inflation, is expected to fall by 18 percent in 2018, the third consecutive year in double digits
And then there is inflation of a million dollars.
"We expect inflation to rise to 1,000,000 percent by the end of 2018 to signal the situation in Venezuela is similar to that of Germany in 1923 or from Zimbabwe to the end of the 2000s, "said the fund in its report
the Venezuelan government does not publish official figures. In the streets of Caracas, the capital, prices have risen to such high levels that many sellers are now refusing to take Bolivian banknotes, the national currency, because their value is eroding so quickly. Some Venezuelan rich have turned to alternatives like Bitcoin. Shop owners guess the prices they should charge for the goods; restaurant menus change weekly; and the price of the dollar, sold on the black market, reached 3.5 million bolivars.
The crisis of inflation comes to add to the deep political repression led by President Nicolás Maduro, who was declared the winner this year extend his term until 2025. Lack of food and basic drugs forced hundreds of thousands of people to flee the country. Authorities in neighboring Colombia said last week that 870,000 Venezuelans were in the country.
In its report, the monetary fund blamed the fall in oil production and the "significant macroeconomic imbalances" to the country's financial problems. He drew a grim picture for the coming months, predicting that government officials would have budget deficits paid by printing more money, "which will continue to fuel an acceleration in inflation.
For the Venezuelan government the result of an "economic war" led by the United States and wealthy businessmen accumulating reserves and raising prices.
Although the figure of one million is symbolic, the fund's prediction that the country would reflect "At this point, the Titanic is at an angle of 270 degrees compared to what it should be said Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, an economist at Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. 19659002] The period after the First World War ruined the economy of the German Weimar Republic. Before the war, the dollar was worth 4,2 marks; In 1923, a dollar cost 4.2 trillion marks. Germany eventually replaced its currency and stabilized it, but millions were financially ruined.
Zimbabwe suffered the same fate under Robert Mugabe after land confiscations and a strong human rule precipitated a financial collapse. At one point, the country printed a note worth 100 billion Zimbabwean dollars. The country has finally scrapped its currency.
But Mr. Lansberg-Rodriguez said that Venezuela could have less success in fixing its money problems because of a history of botched attempts to replace the bolívar. He added that Zimbabwe was in a better position to recover because it had a more diversified economy than Venezuela. "The level of chaos in Venezuela makes it much more difficult to restore confidence and exit this cycle," he said.
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