The reduction of VAT is not inevitable. Economists on Ministry of Finance projects

"Public debt relative to GDP will gradually decline, and in 2022 it will reach 40.6 percent," the Ministry of Finance said in the Convergence Plan Update. Then, the VAT rates are automatically reduced from 23 to 22%. and 8 to 7 percent.

– It's a political decision. It is true that the reduction would result from the machine, but it is a mechanism that can be modified by law. I would not be so attached to it – said Jarosław Janecki, chief economist at the Polish news agency Société Générale.

And he added: "We see that this year VAT revenues are not growing, they should increase after the first quarter.

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According to Marta Petka-Zagajewska of PKO BP, it is not certain that the reduction of VAT will become a fact, because many things can happen along the way.

– This is a scenario that does not involve very negative events on the world economic scene or the national economy – said the economist.

As she pointed out: – To reach the path set by the Ministry of Finance, many conditions must be met, including the maintenance of relatively strong economic growth.

The economist of Santander bank Grzegorz Ogonek believes that it is very likely that the scenario of the ministry is materializing.

– However, we assume a slightly different deficit path, and therefore slower than expected in the plan, the rate of public debt relative to GDP – explained the expert.

The Ministry of Finance estimates that the change in the amount of VAT will cost the budget of 2022 about 9,300 million zlotys.