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President Trump will finally have his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a face-to-face that the president claims since his campaign, but which, in the opinion of many analysts, could lead to US trade with a bad actor.
The White House says the two leaders will discuss important issues in relations between the United States and Russia, and Trump will try to improve the relationship that is currently at its lowest level since the Cold War.
Indictment against Russian agents for alleged piracy and electoral interference. Punishments. Diplomatic evictions. The last years, dating back to the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, caused strong tensions between the United States and Russia.
Leah Millis / Reuters also address the global problems that pitted the two countries, including Ukraine, Syria , arms control and North Korea.
"I will not come in with great expectations, but we could come out with surprising things," Trump told a press conference Friday with British Prime Minister Theresa May in England .
Here is an overview of the main problems.
Bilateral Relations
"I hope we will have very good relations with Russia," Trump said at Friday's press conference following May, whose country is still under pressure. a second possible this month.
This is a common chorus of Trump, who has called for better relations with Russia since he was a candidate. "We are competitors, not a question of friend or foe, it is not my enemy and one day maybe he will be a friend," he said. he said about Putin at NATO headquarters a week ago.
Despite his attempts to forge this friendship, relations between the United States and Russia are acrimonious. Russia has forced the United States to reduce its diplomatic presence in the country last summer – a late response to President Obama's expulsion of Russian diplomats in retaliation for Moscow's interference in the United States. The US reacted by closing the Russian consulate in San Francisco and expelling more Russians.
Congress also passed new sanctions against Russia last summer that Trump signed reluctantly because Republicans and Democrats say that the administration has not done enough to punish Russia for its election interferences and dissuade them from acting again in 2018.
Trump said that he would raise the issue of electoral interference: "I will absolutely mention" interference ", he said Friday. But in the past, he doubted that Russia, in fact, had mixed elections in the United States, seeming to accredit Putin's denials. Trump told reporters last November that he believed Putin only for the White House to repeat this statement afterwards.
As Dan Coats, Trump's national intelligence director at Congress in February, said, Russia was not discouraged: "There is no doubt that Russia views its past efforts as successful and considers 2018 mid-term elections as a potential target for Russian influence operations. "
After the chemical attack in the United Kingdom, the United States expelled more Russian diplomats and closed the Seattle consulate, the Russians reacting in kind.
While there was a working group between Under-Secretary of State Tom Shannon and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, to address these issues, he did not not met for months; Shannon has since left the state department without any plan for anyone else to assume that role.
At the very least, Trump could break out of this summit by waving a flag of truce, trying to stop the downward spiral of relationships and perhaps improve them. But the actions of the United States were the result of specific violations of international standards, including US elections, so any easing of sanctions or re-establishment of diplomatic relations would be considered a concession to Russia and a tacit green light for their aggression.
Ukraine
Sergei Grits / AP
Nowhere is Russia's aggression more apparent than in Ukraine. The Trump State Department spent months attacking Russia for supporting, arming and leading separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian administration says that she will never recognize the illegal annexation of Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula invaded by Russia in 2014. the sanctions. Fighting in eastern Ukraine continues after more than four years, with more than 10,000 dead.
While the Trump administration has been tough with Russia on Ukraine – sending lethal weapons to the Ukrainian government, increasing the sanctions against the Russians for their participation, and supporting the Organization for Security and Safety. cooperation in Europe, which monitors the war – Trump expressed doubts.
He told European leaders that Crimea should be Russia because many of its inhabitants speak Russian, and when asked if he would recognize the annexation of Russia last Thursday, he pointed out the opening by Russia of a bridge to Crimea, a submarine port. has added billions of dollars … What will happen to the Crimea from then on, that I can not tell you?
Even leaving the door open to land grabbing by Russia has troubled the allies in Europe, especially Eastern Europeans who could face the same threat from Russia as she has also invaded Georgia and Moldova.
Syria
The possible recognition of Trump from Crimea could be part of a larger agreement that is related to Syria. After more than seven years of a terrifying civil war, large parts of Syria are beginning to appear more firmly under the command of President Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russian air power and Iranian and Iranian militias, although US-backed groups, including the Kurds, maintain control in some parts of the country.
Mohamad Abazeed / AFP / Getty Images [19659006] Smoke rises from buildings following a ground-to-ground missile strike at an area held by rebels in the southern Syrian town of Daraa. March 23, 2018.
Despite the brutal tactics of Assad, including the use of chemical weapons The Trump government, influenced by allies like Israel and the Arab States, now sees the Iran as the biggest threat in Syria. Seeking to put an end to the Iranian military presence in this country, which threatens these allies and regional stability, the United States could conclude an agreement with Russia, analysts say. In exchange for Russia's exit of Iran out of Syria, Trump could recognize the annexation of Crimea by Russia or reduce US sanctions.
But it is not clear that Russia has the ability or the interest to bring out Iran, and because of the sanctions imposed by Congress, Trump can no longer unilaterally terminate sanctions against Russia either.
In one way or another, the two leaders are also likely to discuss the ceasefire zone that both parties agreed in southwestern Syria. 39, last year. Negotiated with Jordan, it was announced by the United States as a way forward to suppress violence in Syria and move towards peace. But in recent weeks, the Assad regime, backed by Russian air power, has pushed into this area in open violation of the deal. While the Trump administration shared its concerns, it did nothing to stop the breakthrough, breaking the deal that she considered a success.
Arms Control
Arms control is perhaps the lowest fruit on which the two leaders can be heard. But even that will not be easy. Trump told reporters Thursday in Brussels that he would report on Russia's violation of the Mid-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and said he hoped to extend New START, an agreement that limits the number deployed nuclear weapons and creates new inspections. diet but expires in 2021.
Extract from the Kremlin / EPA / REX / Shutterstock Trump has already castigated this agreement as a bad bargain negotiated by his predecessor. We do not know what has changed, he now wants to extend it.
The best that we can hope for here is that at their summit, Putin and Trump announce new talks to negotiate a follow-up agreement. The two parties met for the last time in September, but a second meeting in March was canceled.
Still, the idea of nuclear talks seems of interest to both Trump, who is looking for a victory from the top, and Putin, who wants Russia to appear as an equal in the United States and a nuclear superpower on the scene World.
However, there is no shortage of irony in concluding an arms control agreement with Russia after deploying chemical weapons in the United Kingdom and blessing their use in Syria.
North Korea
While China is North Korea's largest trading partner, Russia also has strong historical and economic ties with Pyongyang – what the United States has called in recent years . North Korea and demand to dismantle its nuclear weapons program.
Saul Loeb / AFP / Getty Images But with the Trump administration that is now asking for a solution Diplomatic to North Korea's nuclear program, Russia lies on the outside and wants nothing more than to be on the game and considered an important player. This is the reason why Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Kim Jong Un a few days before his Trump summit in Singapore.
Putin can offer to help the United States negotiate with North Korea, as Russia did during the six-party talks under George W. Bush's administration. It is unclear what influence Russia has on Kim, but the support of another regional power could help North Korea move towards denuclearization.
However, what the US really needs to be vigilant is a push by Russia to loosen sanctions against North Korea so that it can revive economic activity . Last week, the main North Korean diplomat from Primorsky, Russia, met with the governor of the region and pleaded for the construction of a cross-border bridge, expanding trade and increasing number of North Korean guest workers in Russia. violate the sanctions of the United Nations Security Council.
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