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British Prime Minister Theresa May appears on the BBC's Andrew Marr show in London on July 15, 2018. (Jeff Overs / BBC via Reuters)
On Friday, July 20, the British Prime Minister Theresa May pronounces a speech at The Waterfront Hall in Belfast. The content of the discourse has already been widely . May is ready to denounce the "backstop" negotiated by his government with the European Union as part of the Brexit agreement. She will say that the proposal would violate the Belfast agreement that guaranteed peace in Northern Ireland and leave the citizens of Northern Ireland without any representation in trade negotiations. She will say, "The economic and constitutional dislocation of an official customs border of" third country "in our own country is something that I will never accept and I believe that no British prime minister could never accept. And as they said this week, it is not something that the House of Commons will accept either.
This speech is very important. The support arrangement is a crucial part of the Brexit negotiations. This can also have major consequences for peace in Northern Ireland. May's hostility to the safety net probably does not have much to do with the constitutional principle. He is more likely to be motivated by politics within his own political party and by the demands of the Democratic Unionist Party, which supports May's minority government.
Peace and borders are closely linked in Northern Ireland
To understand what is happening on, it is first necessary to understand the role that the EU played in the peace process Irish. The shared US "Customs Union" and "Single Market" avoided the need for border controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This has not only allowed the two economies to become highly integrated. It has also had a symbolic importance, allowing people and goods to move between the two jurisdictions, without any necessary implication that Northern Ireland would become politically united with the Republic.
Britain's decision to leave the EU has politicized border controls, raising the question of how to reconcile the fact that the Republic of Ireland is still in the EU, and operates under EU customs and market rules, and Northern Ireland will not do it soon. The Unionists – who want to be part of Britain – do not want an arrangement in which Northern Ireland would have separate rules from Britain. They fear that this will lead Northern Ireland to get closer politically to the Republic. Republicans and nationalists – and the government of the Republic of Ireland – do not want an arrangement in which Northern Ireland would have a "hard border" with the Republic. The problem is that it is difficult to avoid a hard border without special rules and statutes for Northern Ireland.
That is why the question of the Northern Irish border had to be settled before the start of negotiations on Brexit. It has proved impossible to reach agreement on what to do with the status of Northern Ireland, but EU negotiators and the Republic of Ireland have agreed to a compromise under which Britain agreed on a backstop arrangement. The EU and Ireland interpreted this agreement as saying that if no mutually acceptable arrangement could be found, Northern Ireland would remain in the single market and the EU Customs Union. , allowing real negotiations to begin
19659009] Britain has always wanted to interpret the support commitment in a more flexible way than the EU It has tried to persuade the EU to accept a agreement under which Britain would remain within EU customs and market agreements for a certain period, while it has settled its own long-term status, but would not be bound by broader EU accession commitments. The US clarified that this proposal was unacceptable, as it would give Great Britain a plausible degree of freedom both when she decided to leave and how she interpreted her obligations to Europe.
In addition, pro-Brexit members The Conservative Party, which had once pledged that Britain would continue to be part of the Customs Union, now wants a much more "hard" Brexit than "… they did not say it once. Theresa May, fearing that the pro-Brexiters would split her party and possibly force her resignation as a leader, last week accepted the conditions imposed by the pro-Brexit faction. One of his concessions was a change to the British customs bill which stated that it would be illegal for Northern Ireland to be part of a separate customs territory in Britain. " That meant that Britain was pre-legally committed to the safety net that the EU
The politics of the rear guard is not motivated by any worries constitutional, but by the inability of Britain to get the EU to accept an unfortunate deal on the members of the Customs and Single Market, the intransigence of May's party members and the weakness of the leadership of May. It is also likely that the Democratic Unionist Party, which supports the May government, has also demanded that no arrangement distinguish Northern Ireland from the rest of Britain
This could destabilize the negotiations on Brexit – and Northern Ireland [19659013] May's speech will have far-reaching consequences for Britain's Brexit negotiations. She presents the US with a fait accompli, forcing her government to a negotiating stance that the US has already made known that it will not accept. It is theoretically possible that it works to his advantage. Sometimes, as argued political scientists like Robert Putnam, weakness in the country can turn into a force abroad. If you are too weak, you will not be able to implement the concessions that other governments would like you to make. However, the danger of weakness is that you can be caught in a position that is simply unacceptable to negotiators from other countries, so that no agreement is possible. That's the big risk that May takes. If his new demands are unacceptable to the US, Britain will end up in a Brexit "no deal". which could have very damaging consequences for the British economy.
Moreover, the intransigence of the speech will probably have consequences in Northern Ireland. The peace agreement in Northern Ireland was already in grave danger, thanks to mistrust between the major parties. May's speech is likely to be interpreted by the nationalists as a strong signal that she is in the pocket of the Democratic Unionist Party. Already, the nationalists have difficulty in preventing the radicals from returning to "the armed struggle". May's speech will probably add a lot to their difficulties
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