US to post high GDP growth in the second quarter?

OVERVIEW OF EVENTS

· Today, the main focus will be on reading US GDP for the second quarter

This will be a preliminary reading and it will probably show a very good result from the US economy in the period from early April to the end of June. We expect US GDP growth in the second quarter to be 4.5% in annualized kDK vs. 2.0% in the first quarter. The acceleration of consumption compared to the first quarter is probably responsible for the good performance of the US economy in the second quarter. In addition, the improvement was probably recorded in the net exports category, which contributed positively to economic growth in the second quarter.
· The ECB meeting yesterday brought very little new information. The European Central Bank has confirmed that it expected to despair from October, reducing the value of the asset purchase program to end it by the end of the year. 39; year. The ECB has not changed the wording of the statement concerning expectations regarding the future of interest rates in the euro area. Here it has been confirmed that they should remain unchanged at least until next summer. On the other hand, the tone of Mr Draghi's opinion on the outlook for the European economy was relatively optimistic. He said economic growth in the eurozone should continue at a relatively rapid pace, despite the heightened uncertainty associated with trade talks initiated by Trump. Draghi spoke with relative optimism about the inflation outlook and assessed that progress had been made on the way towards the ECB's inflation target.

COMMENTARY ON THE MARKET

· The good moods in the risky asset markets were maintained yesterday. The impetus for growth, particularly in the European stock markets, has been provided by the outcome of Wednesday's meeting of President D. Trump with the head of the European Commission. J.C. Juncker, who brought conciliatory signals and stopped the risk of further escalation of the trade dispute on the US-EU line. In addition, the ECB's yesterday meeting supported listing on European markets, confirming plans to keep interest rates in the euro area unchanged over the coming quarters.
· The Warsaw Stock Exchange has behaved very well in recent days, especially the largest listed companies. Yesterday, the WIG 20 ended with a 5 th consecutive session in a row approaching the level of 2,300 points. The listing on the WSE, in addition to improving the listing on the European stock markets, also helps to enhance the sentiment towards emerging markets, which is supported, inter alia, by the decision to invest. increase the economic stimulus of the Chinese government. Given the strength of the recent WSE hikes, we should expect a recovery in the near future. If the last strength of our market will last depends on the interest of foreign investors. The relatively low turnover in the domestic market can have a significant impact on prices. The fact that foreign investors will be important testifies to the fact that mWIG40 and sWIG80 have made much less progress in recent days
· In the currency market, comments after yesterday's meeting of the ECB have brought the rate of the EURUSD below the level of 1.17. Today, reading the main currency pair can be determined by reading US GDP, which is scheduled for the afternoon. The good data we expect from the United States could fuel further declines in the EURUSD. However, the bearish potential should be limited by the level of 1.155. After an unsuccessful attempt to break the exchange rate of the current consolidation yesterday, the following days may still be marked by the current lateral trend, which will effectively limit the area around 1.17 over
· Relatively low volatility has persisted in recent days in the case of the EURPLN rate. The possible strengthening of the dollar in response to GDP data could, for the moment, curb the appreciation of the zloty, but any attempt to correct the rebound of EURPLN should slow down around 4.31. In the coming days, the overall sentiment will probably decide the direction of the EURPLN, if the current good morale on world markets is maintained, it should be possible to go down to 4.26.