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"The projection (inflation and GDP of Poland – ed.) Is at a lower level, although it is only a projection, it is a prediction with a probability of 50% .It reinforces my personal belief that by the end of 2020. there will be no change in the level of interest rates "- said Glapiński at a press conference after the meeting of the MPC. But as he added, it's only his personal opinion.
"From here the end of next year, we expect that there will be no reason to increase interest rates, this state of things can be extended.There will be activities in the EU economy – the countries that are the most economically connected with us […] So far, all indications are that there are no factors that would change this current assessment "- he said at the conference MPC member Jerzy ¯yyyński
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Hardt does not believe in the possibility of a world trade war
"I would not be so categorical saying that next year there will be no need for Increase the rate. […] we are talking in the category of probabilities, so of course there is also a scenario described by the president, ie a scenario of no change in the longer term ", said Hardt at the conference
. there were external factors that were disinflationary – the impact of globalization, easier transfer of production where it would be cheaper, inflation overall low. He pointed out that, even though he does not believe in the possibility of a global trade war, it seems that the direction of protectionism may somewhat extinguish these global disinflationary factors.
"On the other hand, in the economy We can face a situation in which internal disinflation factors, such as high corporate margins, from which they descend, do not transfer the increase in compensation costs to the prices of end products so quickly, then we can that they expire "- said Hardt.
Read more: The Poles are losing power. Almost like the Greeks. One of the highest indicators of the Union
Two scenarios of members of the MPC
He adds that we have experienced a revolution in the retail business in recent years – strong price competition in discount stores , department stores disinflationary.
"Perhaps it will be necessary to extinguish these disinflationary factors, which will make that in 2020 inflation will be more likely in this upper range of deviations, closer to the top", pointed out a member of the Council
. "So it seems to me that there are two scenarios on the table : this one sketched by Mr. Glapiński – no need to change, but I would not exclude either the need for it. a monetary policy reaction for example to the horizon next year, or the end of next year "- summed Hardt.
In the release after the MPC meeting ended today, it was written that according to the July projection of the model (prepared at the end of the -up interest rate unchanged NBP annual price growth, with a 50 per cent stake, probability of the order of 1.5 per cent, up to 2.1 per cent in 2018 (compared to 1.6-2.5 per cent). in the March 2018 projection), 1.9-3.5 [percentin2019(comparedto17-36%)and17-39%in2020(comparedto19-41%)
In turn, the annual GDP growth rate according to this projection will be 50%, probability of the order of 4-5.2% in 2018 (compared with 3.5-5% in the projection of March 2018), 2.8-4.7% in 2019 (against 2.8-4, 8%) and 2.4-4.3% in 2020 (as against 2.6-4.6%).
"The exceptional economic situation of Poland from here to the end from 2020 "
The president of NBP pointed out that the projection" still shows a remarkable economic situation in Poland by the end of 2020. "[19659002] "When it comes to what the central bank is particularly interested, namely inflation – the CPI and the core – is close to the goal of inflation set by the Monetary Policy Council, the rate of economic growth is high, but it will slow down slightly. Unemployment is historically low. We still have this great growth that is, rapid and sustainable growth, with a rapid rate of wage growth, but not causing an imbalance, "he said. . Glapiński
The National Bank of Poland will release the July projection on Monday, July 16th.
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