What just happened during the elections in Pakistan? And what happens next?

Pakistan just held a national election on Wednesday, but that ended with a major controversy. A few hours after the start of the counting on the night of the elections, the results stopped circulating in the polling stations. Since then, the main political parties have claimed to systematically manipulate and rig. The results – as far as they are available – suggest a victory of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)

PML-N rejected the results, claiming that election was rigged. Other major political parties in the country allege the same thing. All allege that their polling stations – the party workers required to be present at the counting of the votes – were expelled from the polling stations during the counting of the votes. They also complained of the excessive delay in the publication of the preliminary results by the Electoral Commission of Pakistan – provided for by the Pakistani electoral law for 2 am / night after the elections.

The Electoral Commission insists that the delay was due to a technical problem. He claims that the system of electronic transmission of results has collapsed, preventing the download of the results. But he did not address the question of why polling stations were expelled from polling stations.

There were allegations of military interference even before the opening of polling stations

Election Day was not controversial. Long before the elections, there were widespread allegations that the Pakistani army was trying to organize a victory for the ITP.

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The PML-N was the strongest voice behind these allegations. In early July, PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif was found guilty in a corruption case for raising wealth beyond the means. PML-N alleged that the proceedings and the outcome of the case had been influenced by the Pakistani army.

Sharif claimed that he was targeted by the military for asserting civilian supremacy. In the run-up to the elections, the PML-N also complained of pre-election rigging in favor of the PTI through the outbreak of targeted corruption cases and threats / pressures on PML-N members for that they leave the party.

What happens next?

The situation in Pakistan is fluid. However, it is clear that the events of Wednesday night cast a shadow over the legitimacy of the entire election exercise, heralding a serious crisis. In the future, these scenarios seem possible:

1. The PTI government will take power in the midst of a powerful protest movement

A likely outcome of the crisis is that the PTI, led by politician Imran Khan, become a cricketer, will succeed in forming a government . Under the number of seats available, Khan is well positioned to become Pakistan's next prime minister. But allegations of vote rigging by major parties could merge into a protest movement. In this scenario, the ITP-led government would take office and the opposition parties would simultaneously maintain a powerful protest movement to pressure the new government in the foreseeable future.

Protests Lead to Repeated Election

This is a plausible result but a little less likely. By uniting in a protest movement, political parties led by the PML-N can boycott the newly elected parliament and demand an election by hand. If this happens, it will dramatically worsen the crisis in the country, as there are no clear rules or precedents for leading an appeal for a repeated election.

But such an appeal would require deep coordination among all major political parties other than PTI. As all parties have not suffered to the same extent from the election result – with the PPP in a strong position to easily form a provincial government – there is no obvious reason to believe they will collaborate.

What's happening in Pakistan? will not stay in Pakistan

The imminent political turmoil will raise many questions about the role of the Pakistani army during the elections. Pakistan has a long history of military involvement in politics. But we do not know how the military will react. If the history of Pakistan is something to do, the crisis may lead to more – not less – military interference.

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The military involved in more controversy may undermine Pakistan's internal security, threatened by a number of insurgent protesters, such as the Pakistani Taliban and the Islamic State. For now, the military has carte blanche on homeland security. Key political actors generally do not question military actions, let alone criticize them. It could change.

And Wednesday's elections may alarm the two major international powers most interested in the elections: the United States and China. Trump's administration policy in South Asia depends largely on Pakistani support. The US government has struggled to generate much cooperation – the start of a new domestic political crisis in Pakistan makes this cooperation more unlikely.

The Chinese, on the other hand, will be worried about how Pakistani policy will affect the Belt / Road projects passing through Pakistan. The Chinese wanted a strong government that would focus on completing these projects right away. Thus, the emerging crisis would make China very nervous.

Asfandyar Mir is a PhD candidate in Political Science at the University of Chicago and pre-doctoral fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. .addEventListener ("DOMContentLoaded", function () {});
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