Poll: majority still opposes Trump's emergency declaration

On the eve of Congressional President Donald Trump's unprecedented reprimand, a majority of voters continue to oppose his national declaration of emergency on the southern border, according to a POLITICO / Morning Consult survey.

The poll shows that Trump failed to gain support for his statement in the face of congressional opposition. the results are essentially unchanged since he signed an order to reallocate military funds to building a wall along the US-Mexico border. According to the survey, only 38% of voters support the statement, down 1 point from three weeks ago.

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In the new poll, 52% of voters oppose the declaration, up 1 percentage point last month.

The House has already voted in favor of the revocation of Trump's emergency declaration, and the Senate should do the same on Thursday, with a handful of Republicans wishing to join the opposition Democrats. But both chambers do not have the vote to cancel what would probably be the first veto of the Trump presidency, which the White House announced, which Trump will do if the measure frees the Senate.

Opinions on the emergency declaration are generally in line with the parties: only 10% of Democratic voters support it, while 83% oppose it. The numbers are reversed for Republicans: 80% of them support the statement and only 13% oppose it. The independents are against reporting by a ratio of close to 2: 1: however, 30% support it and 57% oppose it.

Overall, 33% of voters said they would be more likely to vote for their senators or representatives if they supported Trump's emergency declaration. But more than 45% said they would be less inclined to support lawmakers who supported the statement. Only 11% said it would make no difference.

Party divisions are similar: 74% of Democratic voters would be less likely to vote for a legislator who supported the declaration of urgency, while 70% of Republicans would be more likely to support that person. A plurality of independents, 46%, would be less likely to vote for a congressman who supported the statement, while 23% would be more likely to vote for that person.

Proponents of the division suggest that the Senate vote this week could put a damper on Republicans in place in the battlefield states – Sens. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina are expected to join the Democrats in disapproving of Trump's statement. Similarly, Senator Doug Jones of Alabama, the most vulnerable Democrat who is running for another term next year, may be at odds with Republican voters in his state.

"Supporting Trump's national emergency declaration could be politically toxic for senators who are running for re-election in 2020," said Tyler Sinclair, vice president of Morning Consult.

Trump's approval ratings in the poll are unchanged from last week: 41% of voters approve of the work they do, while 54% disapprove. Only 36% of respondents would vote to re-elect Trump if the 2020 elections were held today, while 55% would vote for someone else.

The poll POLITICO / Morning Consult took place from March 8 to 10, with 1,994 voters. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.

Morning Consult is a non-partisan media and technology company that provides research and insights based on data on trade policy, policy and strategy.

More details about the survey and its methodology are available in these two documents – Toplines: https://politi.co/2F5MIxC | Crossed tables: https://politi.co/2F7ywEn