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The belief that he could best price against President Trump is currently propelling Joe Biden into the race for the Democratic nomination by two measures: the voting preference and the delegates who would accompany him. But others, including Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, are part of the group, at least with regard to the candidates that voters are considering.
This study examined the Democratic struggle across the places where it will matter first: all 18 states that will shape the initial battle from 2020 until Super Tuesday, including Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. And CBS News has converted the voting choices of the Democrats of all these states into delegates, because that is the number that will ultimately count – that is, the nomination contest selects the delegates to vote. democratic convention next year.
CBS News first asked which candidates were the voters consider supporting – and told them that they could choose as many or as few as they wished. (Like many decisions that people make, very early in the process, they will reduce their options before deciding.)
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Biden gets the most attention, from a majority of 55% of Democrats. Warren (49%), Harris (45%) and Bernie Sanders (43%) are closely monitoring this.
Pete Buttigieg is studying by just under a third (32%) of the first states. And, in line with their view that the field is too broad, the number of candidates considered by voters is on average relatively low – just under four.
Biden is the most effective way to translate a consideration into a first choice vote. With 31% of the Democratic primary voters, he dominates among the first states in terms of voting, against 17% for Warren, 16% for Sanders and 10% for Harris. Biden converts most of those who consider it by choosing it as their first choice when they are in a hurry, but fewer than those considering Warren or Sanders – about a third – choose these candidates as their first choice.
Biden also leads in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, in particular.
Iowa
New Hampshire
Caroline from the south
The CBS News model translates the voting preferences in states and districts into delegates, because that is the number that will ultimately count – by incorporating party rules throughout the process. If these voting preferences were today those that had emerged in all of these states, Biden would be well ahead of the delegates ranking in Super Tuesday, with Warren and Sanders behind him.
The Biden preference numbers in the first states would result in a delegation of delegates estimated at 731 delegates, compared to 355 Warren and 317 Sanders. These candidates, in turn, have a distinct advantage to consider in the rest of the group.
The model is not a prediction: it is proposed to show how the support of the candidates translates into delegate attributions based on the rules of the state and the party because the race to the Investiture is ultimately a contest for convention delegates. Delegates are assigned at the state level ("in general") and also by district, which the model takes into account.
Voter preferences and the political landscape can and must generally change over time, and the model does not attempt to incorporate the effects of such changes or uncertainties in the future. CBS News and YouGov plan to conduct further interviews and regularly revise the current estimates based on the updated data.
When CBS News asked people to select all the candidates they envisioned, as well as their first choice, we could see who was more directly competing with who in the minds of voters.
Sanders first choice voters are the most concentrated in the field, the least likely to consider another person. Those who choose Warren as the first choice also consider Harris and, to a lesser extent, Buttigieg and Sanders. Among the Democrats who prefer the candidate to be a woman, a majority considers Harris and a majority also contemplates Warren.
In the early electoral states, Biden dominated the field with men and women, and his lead among black Democratic primary voters was greater than among whites. Biden has more support among older primary voters than younger voters.
Sanders is doing well with voters under 30. Most of the primary democratic voters in these early states see themselves as liberal – divided between those who are very liberal and a little liberal. Biden drags Warren and Sanders among the party's "very liberal" but ahead of the "somewhat" liberal. Biden occupies an even bigger place among a quarter of the Democratic primary voters who identify as moderate.
The Track Tracker Tracker from CBS News will closely follow the fight as we move forward. The 2020 primaries are much larger than those in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Many large states have accumulated at the start of the 2020 calendar.
This could produce a clear favorite in the spring, but on the other hand, the rules could fracture delegates' attributions. Democrats distribute delegates to the congress proportionally to the best candidates in the states – not just the winners, but sometimes the second and third places – and the regions in the districts. This could therefore allow a large field to run until next spring. In addition, the lack of so-called super-delegates this year – party leaders who can not now vote on the first conventional ballot as they did in the past – could also leave the race more open.
This CBS News survey is conducted by YouGov between May 31 and June 12, 2019. A representative sample of 16,624 registered voters in 18 states is expected to hold primaries and early caucuses (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Massachusetts, Minnesota). , Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia) was selected. This sample includes 7,885 self-identified and independent democrats with democratic tendencies. This sample was weighted by sex, age, race, and education based on the US Community Survey, conducted by the US Bureau of the Census, as well as 2016 presidential vote. The margin of error is about 1.5%.
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