Polls in Virginia hint at entrenched electorate

In what has become a critical indicator of the national political environment the year before a midterm election, former Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe (R) and former Carlyle group chief executive Glenn Youngkin (R) are locked in a neck and neck battle to identify every persuasive voter in a Commonwealth that has had an increasingly democratic streak in recent years.

But judging by public polls, the pair are looking for a voter who barely exists: Polls show the race to be Virginia’s next governor is virtually tied and incredibly stable in a turbulent political environment in which issues elude problems. under their control – a raging global epidemic, a chaotic exit from Afghanistan, and even a potentially cataclysmic default – dominate the headlines.

Poll after poll, McAuliffe and Youngkin appear to be virtually at a standstill. A Roanoke College poll in mid-August showed McAuliffe leading by eight points; the same poll released this week showed him leading by seven. Monmouth gave McAuliffe a five-point advantage in late August and a five-point advantage in a poll released this week. Trafalgar, a Republican-leaning company, gave McAuliffe a two-point lead in early July and one point in late August.

A single poll, conducted by the University of Mary Washington two weeks ago, showed Youngkin in the lead. In this poll, the Republican leads by a margin of 48% to 43% among likely voters, although still within the margin of error.

Republicans say their internal data showed the race was coming to an end, particularly in the wake of the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan that sparked a difficult political period for President BidenJoe Biden Arizona Democrats and activists envision Sinema’s main potential challenge over the Biden agenda, the Biden filibuster, and the border patrol: It’s so good to have the “adults” on the side. Orders Dental coverage for Medicare beneficiaries splits the parts PLUS. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections have both shifted race odds to Youngkin in recent weeks, although neither see the race as a leak.

If these internal numbers are correct, the GOP polls see something that the public polls are missing.

“Based on all the polls, it’s a tossup,” said former Gov. Douglas Wilder (D), who now oversees survey research at Virginia Commonwealth University. Wilder’s latest poll showed McAuliffe leading by nine points, but with a whopping 23 percent of voters remaining to decide.

McAuliffe’s slim lead in virtually every poll is a sign to some Republicans that their candidate has a chance of becoming the first GOP candidate in a dozen years to win the governorship. In 2013, the year he was elected, polls showed McAuliffe was around six points ahead of his rival, then Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R). McAuliffe won this race by just two percentage points.

Pollsters say the seemingly immobile electorate is the result of a heated political environment that has only grown more entrenched on their respective sides.

“It seems that partisan tribalism has deepened so much over the past five years that what we generally call the fundamentals of a race are pretty much set in stone from day one,” said Patrick Murray, manager. surveys in Monmouth. He said a similar dynamic was occurring in home state of Monmouth, New Jersey, where Gov. Phil Murphy (D) maintains a steady lead over his Republican challenger.

These results are reminiscent of the recent recall elections in California, in which the government. Gavin NewsomGavin NewsomRunning against Trump is tough, but is Biden “mentally sharp” enough for the job? Harris Poll Numbers Rise As Falling Biden Caitlyn Jenner Says She Will Run Again, Calls On GOP To Be ‘More Inclusive’ MORE (D) survived a significant threat to his political career by making the election a referendum on the National Republicans list and tying his most important rival – radio host Larry Elder (R) – to the former president Donald trumpDonald Trump Biden and the Border Patrol: So good to have the “adults” in charge Lawmakers are asking the Air Force to “pause all action” on the movement of Space Command. job? FOLLOWING.

McAuliffe has attempted to invoke Trump on several occasions as a foil in his own race. In a debate this week, McAuliffe mentioned Trump so often that Youngkin joked that he won a bet for those who took over.

“There’s a number of times you’re going to say Donald Trump tonight, and it was ten, and you just walked through it,” Youngkin told McAuliffe. “Let’s have Terry McAuliffe against Glenn Youngkin, and let the voters of Virginia decide who they want their next governor to be.”

Wilder, who has been skeptical of other Democratic candidates since stepping down a generation ago, said McAuliffe’s strategy is a tough sell in a state where the highly educated electorate is proud of its independence.

“The public knows who is on the ballot. They know it’s not Donald Trump, and the anti-Trumpism that I don’t know is going to play out the way they think it does, ”Wilder told The Hill in an interview. “People are not stupid enough to think that when they go to vote they will vote against Donald Trump. They are not stupid.

“Terry is running a 24/7 laser campaign focused on the issues Virginians care about most – defeating COVID, creating good jobs, making healthcare more affordable and giving every child a classy education global, ”said Renzo Olivari, a McAuliffe campaign. Meanwhile, Glenn Youngkin is running a hyper-partisan campaign based on his four-time backing of Donald Trump, and his own stated priorities: banning abortion, pushing anti-vaccine rhetoric and policies based on electoral conspiracy theories. Virginians should make no mistake: the future of our Commonwealth is on the ballot this fall and Terry will win when Virginians show up to vote in early fall.

Youngkin’s press staff did not respond to requests for comment.

McAuliffe also criticized Youngkin’s opposition to vaccine and mask mandates in schools and workplaces in Virginia, betting hard that the public favors tough action to fight the coronavirus pandemic over a vocal minority who wants the restrictions to end.

Youngkin, meanwhile, made education a selling point, highlighting McAuliffe’s opposition to critical race theory bans in the classroom, a hot topic in some northern Virginia counties where the meetings school boards have become fixtures on cable news channels.

Polls show voters view both the pandemic and education issues as the main drivers of their vote – although jobs and the economy lead the two.

The most recent Monmouth poll showed more voters trusted McAuliffe to handle the pandemic, by a 41% to 28% margin. The two candidates were more closely divided on the question of who would deal best with the economy and education.

Neither Youngkin nor McAuliffe have made significant strides in the other candidate’s base. About nine in ten Democrats support McAuliffe and about nine in ten Republicans support Youngkin. Most polls show a gap in enthusiasm for Youngkin – not unusual in an environment in which the opposition party has just taken over the White House – but the emerging Democratic trend in Virginia mitigates any disaster for McAuliffe.

“The only room for maneuver is with the independents. We see them moving slightly towards Youngkin, but I don’t expect to see a major move. As has been the case in other recent elections, it will likely depend on the turnout, ”said Harry Wilson, returning officer in Roanoke. “We are seeing more enthusiasm among Republicans, which may impact what we see on election day.”