Polls show California recall is gaining ground

The share of California voters who say they will vote to recall the government. Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom San Francisco bars demand vaccine proof, negative COVID-19 tests for indoor drinking Gavin Newsom blames ‘right-wing’ misinformation for delta variant deaths California demands state employees and health workers are vaccinated PLUS (D) of the office quietly grows up about 10 weeks before heading to the polls, a disturbing sign for an incumbent who is facing crises that are quietly mounting in his state.

A poll released Tuesday by the Institute for Government Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, found that 47% of likely voters said they would support the recall effort and 50% said they would support the recall effort. declared opposed.

Of all registered voters, only 36% removed Newsom from office. But the growing enthusiasm of supporters of the recall, and especially Republican voters who are a deep minority in liberal California, is becoming an existential threat to Newsom’s political career.

Republicans “are confident they can nominate the governor,” returning officer Mark DiCamillo told The Times. “I think Newsom’s campaign really needs to ignite a fire among Democrats and say, ‘Look, the outcome is in danger unless you vote. “

Republicans make up only a quarter of registered voters in California, but they represent a third of the likely voters who managed to answer the poll’s selection questions, a sign of unprecedented enthusiasm. Democratic voters make up 46% of all registered voters in California, but only 42% of voters who say they are likely to vote when recalled.

The Berkeley poll is the second released last week to show that supporters of the recall are gaining ground. An Emerson College poll last week showed 43% of voters supported the recall, while 48% opposed; a March survey conducted by the same pollsters showed only 38% supported the recall.

Newsom supporters have sought to portray the recall as a Republican effort to seize power through illegitimate means. In a statement, a Newsom spokesperson stressed the urgency of returning voters to the polls.

“This poll should be a wake-up call to Democratic voters and anyone who doesn’t want a Republican Trump to become governor of California,” spokesman Nathan Click said in an email. “In a normal election, this Republican recall would have no chance of snowballing in Death Valley. Californians don’t want a Republican takeover of our state, but if Democrats don’t vote, it could.

California voters are deeply divided over who they would want to replace Newsom with if the vote were to take place today. The race lacks both a well-known celebrity, like Arnold Schwarzenegger when he ran in the 2003 recall, or any prominent Democrat, after senior party officials all accepted the on-demand contest. from Newsom.

The Berkeley poll showed conservative talk radio host Larry Elder (R), who joined the pitch at the last minute, leading the way with 18% of the vote. Businessman John Cox (right), who lost to Newsom in 2018, and former San Diego mayor Kevin faulconerKevin Faulconer Michigan GOP Executive Director Resigns Under Pressure From Trump Allies Six Things To Watch As California Heads To Recall Election California Secretary Of State Confirms Newsom MORE Recall Elections (R) are tied at 10 percent. Assembly member Kevin Kiley (R) takes 5 percent, and YouTube star Kevin Paffrath (D) and reality TV personality Caitlyn Jenner (R) each make up 3 percent.

Newsom has yet to begin mounting the kind of serious paid media campaign that is likely to define the final weeks of the race. His campaign raised $ 9.3 million, according to campaign funding reports, while anti-recall committees raised $ 23 million that could be used for media blitz and engagement efforts. .

Cox raised $ 7.7 million, most of it from his own checkbook, as the highest-funded Republican candidate. Faulconer raised $ 2.8 million, and committees that support Newsom’s recall but no specific replacements have pulled out an additional $ 5.1 million.

Much of the money on Newsom’s side will be spent encouraging voters to go to the polls – or, most importantly, return the ballots already on their kitchen table. Newsom signed a law earlier this year that would require California election administrators to send postal ballots to every voter for every election held in 2021, a holdover from the coronavirus pandemic that could help its voter turnout efforts.

But the pandemic itself is one of a series of disasters that are testing Newsom in recent weeks before voters speak out. The spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus has forced some counties in California to re-impose mask warrants in indoor spaces, for both vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Wildfires are spreading across northern California, signaling another year of deadly conflagrations that will begin in earnest in the fall. And a drought that has lasted for decades is both contributing to the dangers of the fire season and impacting farmers in the parched central valley.

Newsom’s approval rating has declined throughout the pandemic after voters gave it high marks in the first months of closures and restrictions. The Berkeley poll shows its approval rating at 50 percent, up from 64 percent who approved last September.