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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised euro zone growth for the euro area to 2.2% this year, two tenths lower than in April, mainly because of the less favorable outlook for Germany, France and Italy
In a report released Monday, the IMF explains that this downward revision is due to the fact that economic activity in Germany and France "have slowed more than expected in the first quarter "and the political uncertainty in Italy, which led to" more restrictive "financial conditions. The IMF, which expects global economic growth of 3.9% this year and next year, has also reduced one tenth of its growth forecast for the euro area in 2019 to 1.9%. 19659003] The projected growth for Spain, which stands at 2.8% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019, is ahead of growth in the major economies of the euro area, followed by growth in the euro area. Germany, with 2.2% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019.
In analyzing the situation of the euro area at the time of the presentation of the report, the IMF chief economist, Maurice Obstfeld, said that "political uncertainty has increased in Europe" in recent months. Obstfeld felt that the European Union "faces fundamental political challenges" related to migration policy and the institutional architecture of the euro area, among others.
The same IMF chief pointed out that the terms "Brexit", out "
IMF analysts point out that in some countries of the eurozone political shocks at the national level" could worsen the public debt and weaken bank balance sheets ""
Obstfeld found that the current US trade frictions with a number of trading partners, such as the EU, are "the biggest short-term threat to global growth" because "they will have negative effects on trust". assets and investments. "
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