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The euro zone is one of the main victims of the downward revision of the new forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 2018 and 2019, published this Monday in Washington. The other major economies that are planning reductions in the last two years are Brazil, India, Mexico, Japan, and the United Kingdom, as well as France, Italy, and Germany [19659002]. than expected in the April analysis when the IMF released the World Economic Outlook (WEO) with its spring projections. What is the bad news for Portugal that has six euro economies among the top ten destinations for the export of goods.
The Fund 's technicians are now reporting growth in the euro area of 2.2% this year, minus two tenths and 1.9% next year, minus one tenth less than forecasts for the euro area. April. Compared to 2018, it is a more optimistic forecast than the European Commission, which last week reduced its growth by two tenths this year, from 2.3% to 2.1% , while keeping the forecasts for 2019 in 2
Taking into account the main Portuguese export destinations, the new IMF forecasts "punish" France, the second client of goods and the first in the services of Portugal, with a six tenths reduction in two years, the highest in this update. Among the Portuguese export destinations, the main customer of goods and the third in services, which is expected to grow 2.8% this year and 2.2% the following year, the United States, fifth Portuguese customer, projections of 2.9% and 2.7% for both years, and China, which will continue to grow above 6%.
The eurozone suffers from a confluence of risks, rising political uncertainty in some eurozone countries, the challenges to which the European Union and the architecture of The euro is facing the final terms of Brexit, said Maurice Obtsfeld, chief economist of the IMF at the presentation on Monday of the WEO update.
Despite lower forecasts for eight major economies, the IMF has maintained the growth rate at 3.9% by 2018 and 2019. The problem could come later with the negative impact of protectionism. it is materializing worldwide. investor confidence resent. The IMF model indicates a potential reduction in annual growth of 3.8% to 3.3% in 2020, a reduction of half a point in the dynamics of global expansion.
However, the forecast for trade growth has felt this WEO update. The volume growth forecast was reduced by three-tenths for 2018 and by two-tenths for the following year, with a particular focus on trade between developed economies. The annual growth in international trade will therefore increase from 5.1% in 2017 to 4.8% in 2018 and 4.5% in 2019.
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