US central bankers are really worried about the trade war

"Most [dos decisores do banco central norte-americano] noted that the uncertainty and risks associated with trade policy have intensified and fear that this uncertainty and these risks could have negative effects [na economia dos EUA em franca retoma]", refer to the report of the June meeting,

Despite this clear warning from the team led by Jerome Powell, published precisely on the eve of the D-Day escalation of the US-China trade war, scholarships New York closed in positive territory, the Dow Jones gaining 0.75%, the S & P 500 gaining 0.86% and the Nasdaq 1.1%.

Investors preferred to record the very positive assessment made by the Fed on the recovery in the United States, which passed on Thursday in the futures market of the highest rates, where it rose at more than 50% the probability of a fourth hike in interest at the Fed meeting. In the previous session, the probability was 45.9%. The market now estimates that the Fed will achieve four driver rate increases this year and that it will end the year between 2.25% and 2.5%.

Fed members' concerns over rising risks President Jerome Powell had already expressed a global trade war at the June 13 press briefing after the publication of the decision to raise interest rates between 1.75% and 2%. Subsequently, it was reaffirmed in a panel of central bankers held in Sintra at the European Central Bank Forum the same month. Powell echoed concerns expressed by the "Fed's contacts" throughout the US economy, revealing fears of protectionism (even though this damn word was not used in minutes) weigh on investment decisions. [19659002] The minutes of the last Fed meeting also reveals that central bankers have questioned the possibility of a new recession from signals such as reducing the gap between the rates short-term and long-term Treasury bonds. "A number of participants think it would be important to continue to monitor the slope of the yield curve," the report says. Interest on US debt between 6 months and 30 years is in the range of 2.1% to 2.95%. Interest at 12 months is at 2.32% and at 10.8% at 2.83%.