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A wet and powerful storm system called the Atmospheric River is set to permeate the greater San Francisco Bay Area from Tuesday night through Thursday, and Santa Cruz County officials are closely monitoring the forecast to determine if it Some mountain dwellers need to be evacuated due to the risk of mudslides and debris.
“Our main goal is to get people out of the area so that we don’t have to rescue them because there is no way to stop the flow of debris,” Armstrong said. “We’ve been working on the first posts for weeks and months and making sure people know they are in areas that are likely to cause debris flows. We told them to have an evacuation plan, to prepare your luggage.
The storm is expected to be the wettest and strongest of the rainy season so far, with the heaviest rainfall from Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Atmospheric rivers pull long plumes of water vapor through the atmosphere – 250 to 375 miles wide on average – and are often referred to as a river in the sky. On the West Coast, they most often originate from the South Pacific, and as they travel from the tropics across the ocean, they collect incredible amounts of moisture.
With the storm coming, the National Weather Service estimates the Santa Cruz Mountains could receive up to 10 inches of rain, which could create a mess of the 86,000 acres burned by the CZU Lightning complex in August.
The weather service calculated precipitation rate thresholds for the Santa Cruz Mountain area and determined that landslides and debris flows could occur if the rates hit 0.3 inches in 15 minutes, 0.5 inches in 30 minutes or 0.7 inch in 60 minutes.
“The areas of greatest concern in Santa Cruz are the two areas that have the greatest severity of burns from the steep drainage sources that the houses lie below,” Armstrong said. “This is Swanton Road on the north coast of Santa Cruz County and the community of Boulder Creek, especially as you walk up the corridor from Route 236.”
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