Post-ABC survey reveals populist economic frustration threatens Trump's biggest reelection problem



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The strongest case for President Trump's re-election remains the country's good economy, but the strength of this issue for him is compounded by the widespread belief that the economy is benefiting primarily those already in power, a Washington poll finds Post-ABC News.

The result heralds a new wave of populism that could reshape a new presidential campaign in about 18 months before voters decide to send Trump back to the White House.

This sentiment is the deepest among registered Democratic and independent voters, but also exists among a large proportion of Republicans. About 8 out of 10 Democrats and more than 6 in 10 self-employed say that the country's economic system gives an advantage to those already in power, while nearly a third of Republicans share this view.

The survey reveals widespread dissatisfaction with the country's economic and political systems. In total, 60% of voters say that the country's economic system mainly benefits those in power, while 72% say the same thing for the country's political structures.

The survey results echo in many ways the populist fervor that led Trump to an unlikely win over more than a dozen Republican contenders during the 2016 presidential campaign and an unlikely victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton in November.

But the results show that by 2020, sentiment is also driving Democrats.

Senator Bernie Sanders (Vt.), Who since the unsuccessful campaign of 2016 pushed the party to the left on many issues, and Senator Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) Brought the message of economic populism into the Democratic presidential field. , who came up with ideas such as a massive student loan remission program and free classes at public colleges paid by taxing the rich.

Trump's own party, on the other hand, seems largely satisfied with the existing economic system. In the post-ABC poll, nearly two-thirds of Republican voters say the economic system benefits primarily all Americans, as opposed to those in power.

Of the four issues that were at the heart of Trump's first presidential campaign – the economy, illegal immigration, health care and trade – only the economy seems to be an obvious asset to the president.

According to the survey, 42% of registered voters say that managing Trump's economy makes them more likely to vote for him in 2020, while 32% say it makes them less likely to support him. Similarly, the independents give Trump a positive rating on its management of the economy by a margin of 10 points.

Among Republicans, the economy is the clearest positive motivator for reelecting Trump, with 78 percent of GOP voters saying it makes them more likely to support it.

Under the Trump presidency, the US economy has faced a series of positive news, including a declining unemployment rate since taking office in January 2017. That rate was 4.8%, but that figure is now at 3.8%.

Congressional Republicans credited the 2017 tax law and the Trump government's dismantling of government regulations on economic growth – achievements that GOP lawmakers are promoting while minimizing the president's personal behavior and controversial remarks.

"The employment rate for Wisconsin workers has reached an all-time high – it has never been as low before, never, never, think about it," Trump said Saturday, at a news conference. gathering for the campaign in Green Bay, Wisconsin. economy all over the world, and it's not even close. "

Trump is not doing as well in his treatment of immigration and health care, two polarizing issues that have earned him notable defeats.

In terms of illegal immigration, 42% of voters said that Trump's treatment of the issue makes them less likely to re-elect him, while 34% say it makes them more likely. Twenty-two percent say the question does not count in their decision.

Trump climbed to the top of the 2016 Republican presidential group with a radical immigration stance – with a border wall as the central element of his message – and pleaded for an aggressive crackdown on illegal migration and higher standards. strict for asylum seekers arriving in the United States-Mexico. border.

But Congress has repeatedly rejected Trump's request for a border wall, urging him to issue a declaration of urgency to access federal money. The matter is now before the courts.

Trump also considered important measures to reduce the number of apprehended migrants at the border – a figure that exceeded 103,000 in March and was the highest total in a month for more than 10 years.

He promised to close the entire border until the threat disappeared a few days later. Trump said he planned to send undocumented immigrants to various shrine towns across the country – a decision that, according to his administration, is expensive and legally dubious.

"I'm proud to tell you that this was really my unhealthy idea," Trump told Green Bay. Law enforcement officials in sanctuary cities refuse to cooperate with federal immigration authorities for reasons of public safety.

Trump's treatment of health care appears to be a greater responsibility in his bid for re-election, with 38% of voters saying it's a mark against him, versus 25% saying it's a reason to vote for him.

Republicans are relatively less enthusiastic about Trump's health care management than other issues, with less than half – or 46 percent – of GOP voters saying its handling of the issue makes them more likely to vote for him.

After an unsuccessful attempt to repeal the tainted Affordable Care Act in the first year of his presidency, Trump announced sharply last month that he wished to revive this effort, much to the chagrin of many congressional Republicans . He abandoned this effort almost as quickly as he had announced, saying that he would prefer to hold a vote after the November 2020 elections.

Among the self-employed, Trump's treatment of health care is a negative attribute with a margin of 11 points (36% to 25%).

Immigration and health care are also the main motivators of Democrats. Nearly three quarters of Democratic voters said Trump's illegal immigration management makes them less likely to support him for a second term, while 69% of them say the same for his health care management .

Voters are about equally divided on the president's treatment of another priority – international trade – 34 percent saying its management of the issue makes them more likely to support it in 2020 and 36 percent saying it makes them more apt to oppose him.

Overall, Trump faces a higher barrier to re-election than its predecessors: 54% of voters disapprove of its results and 52% say that they will certainly not support it.

Although this level of opposition is four points lower than it was in January, when the country was mired in a partial government shutdown largely attributable to Trump, it still remains a bit higher than the level. of opposition met by President Barack Obama in recent years. his first term, which exceeded 47% of voters.

The survey reveals that 30% of registered voters say they will certainly support Trump's bid for re-election, while 14% say they will consider supporting him.

Despite Trump's negative margin on this issue, voters have not yet sold his support to his possible Democratic opponent.

About one-third of voters who say they do not vote for Trump say they will definitely support the Democratic candidate, while nearly two-thirds of this group say they "wait to see" that Democrats choose to run for the party.

A common feature of Democrats and Republicans in the post-CBA poll is the great interest of participating in the 2020 elections, even at 18 months.

85% of registered voters say they will vote. This level of interest almost reached the peak reached a few weeks before the 2016 presidential election. It follows the mid-term election of last fall, which had the highest turnout in an election. not presidential in more than a century, fueled by increased participation of all demographic groups.

Inter-party enthusiasm is about equal, with 89% of Republican-registered voters expressing confidence in voting, compared to 86% of voters with a democratic tendency.

The post-ABC survey was conducted by telephone from April 22nd to 25th in a random national sample of 1,001 adults, 65% of which were on mobile phones and 35% on landlines. The margin of sampling error among 865 registered voters is plus or minus four percentage points.

Emily Guskin contributed to this report

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