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Michel Martin, of NPR, talks with Allan Lichtman, professor at the American university, about the prediction he made two years ago of an impeachment of President Trump .
MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
We will begin the program today with the growing debate over the opportunity to remove President Trump. The Democrats who control the House now find themselves in a dead end with the executive power on a number of points – the unpublished comprehensive report of Special Advocate Robert Mueller, documents from the former House Attorney White Don McGahn, President Trump's tax returns and other financial documents. Congress wishes to obtain this information and the White House has not yet yielded. This is what Adam Schiff, who heads the House of Commons Intelligence Committee, said today in ABC, "This Week".
(SOUNDBITE OF TV SHOW, "THIS WEEK")
ADAM SCHIFF: These additional acts of obstruction – a president having obstructed the investigation of the Department of Justice, which obstructs Congress – add to the burden of dismissal. But, you know, our reluctance is partly due to the fact that we are already a deeply divided country. A destitution process will divide us further.
MARTIN: At present, Democrats are opposed to further impeachment – and this includes Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi – stating that they preferred to fight until the end of the election. next year, and fear that dismissal will depress them. So we thought it would be a good time to come back with Allan Lichtman. Allan Lichtman is a professor of political science at the American University. In collaboration with a colleague, he has developed a forecasting model that predicts all presidential elections since 1984, including that of Donald Trump in 2016. But Professor Lichtman also predicted that President Trump would be dismissed.
Professor Lichtman, welcome to the program. Thank you for joining us.
ALLAN LICHTMAN: My pleasure.
MARTIN: So, let's go back to 2016, when you started predicting that Donald Trump would be deposed. And it's not based on your own political preferences. Let me be clear about this. Can you describe why you said that …
LICHTMAN: Yes.
MARTIN: … two years ago?
LICHTMAN: My prediction of dismissal was based on a thorough study of Donald Trump's character and his career over forty years or so. What I understood was that he was a president who cared only about his prestige and his power, and not about the public good, that he had a story of lies, that he acted of an individual who had absolutely no respect for the people. the law and would trample the law if he felt it served his personal political advantage. So that was the basis of my prediction of dismissal – Donald Trump's study before his run for president.
MARTIN: You wrote a book in 2017 entitled "The Case For Impeachment". And in your book, you said, neither Republicans nor Democrats will tolerate a compromised or treacherous president and that an impeachment lawsuit would be swift. Does the reaction of Republican leaders who stand so firmly behind President Trump change your calculation?
LICHTMAN: He does not really have it. At the moment, it is up to the Democrats. It's their historic moment. As Shakespeare has said, the tide is flooding. They will either grab the tide during the flood, or they will be swept away by history and will be considered as the worst facilitators of Donald Trump than even the Republicans.
This is not the time to be shy on the part of Democrats. It is the moment of daring. There are now 45% of Americans calling for impeachment. This is before the House votes articles. This is before the trial. That's more than the percentage that wanted to see Richard Nixon be dismissed when they started the impeachment process against him.
So for the moment, I am very disappointed with the Democrats. They make the same mistake that Democrats always make: being too shy, playing not to lose. And it's a sure cure for losing and a sure recipe for not fulfilling its constitutional duty. The only way to hold this president accountable with great difficulty is through dismissal, which strikes his power and his brand.
MARTIN: For those who say they are still skeptical, they say two things. They spoke of the impeachment procedure against Clinton, then said that the Democrats had paid the price for it afterwards at the polls. And second, there is such a division that it is necessary to put up some kind of convincing evidence to convince the Republicans before thinking that it would be prudent to act. What do you say to that?
LICHTMAN: First, the Democrats misinterpreted Bill Clinton's removal. Of course, the Republicans lost a few seats in the House in 1998. But they kept the House and Bill Clinton's dismissal gave them a much bigger price: the US presidency. In post-election polls, a quarter of voters said the scandal was very important for their vote. Second, yes, things are divided. But that does not mean that you are turning away from your duty. If, as he claims, the president has done nothing wrong, he should welcome the holding of a trial. This is the only solution.
And with regard to the 2020 elections, the Democrats again misinterpreted politics. According to my "Keys To The White House", which have been right since 1984, Trump is favored to win the election and you will have to turn the key of the scandal to reduce his chances for 2020.
And the last point is, yes, the Republicans are united against him. But who knows what could happen after a trial if overwhelming evidence is presented against the president? You know, the Democrats have principles, but they have to redouble their courage, otherwise they will fall into the trash of history.
MARTIN: It was Professor Allan Lichtman of the American University. He is a political historian and author of "The Case For Impeachment", published in 2017.
Mr. Lichtman, thank you very much for having spoken to us.
LICHTMAN: Thank you.
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