Predictions UFC Fight Island 8



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Wednesday morning MMA, anyone?

The UFC’s return to Fight Island was bound to have a wacky North American broadcast schedule with three events bundled into seven days, but it’s the midweek show with welterweights Michael Chiesa and Neil Magny that will really mess up some people’s internal clocks.

We have a brilliant, early nine o’clock start time on the east coast and for you peaceful people the show begins at the lively six o’clock in the morning. There are 14 fights on the map, so buckle up.

At the top of UFC Fight Island 8 is a veteran clash as Chiesa and Magny enter their fight based on three straight wins against fierce competition. Chiesa beat former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos, former interim UFC welterweight champion Carlos Condit and Diego Sanchez, while Magny smothered newcomers Anthony Rocco Martin and Li Jingliang before dominating former UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler in his last outing.

With a win, a man takes another step towards his own title opportunity.

In another main card action, former Brave CF and UAE Warriors Mounir Lazzez stands out with his successful UFC debut when he faces veteran welterweights Warlley Alves, light heavyweights Ike Villanueva and Vinicius Moreira meet in a fight that probably won’t need judges, Roxanne Modafferi looks to slow the rise in flyweights Viviane Araujo, flyweights Matt Schnell and Tyson Nam finally face off after seeing their fight reorganized twice, and Lerone Murphy goes for an impressive third consecutive UFC performance when he faces Douglas Silva de Andrade.

What: UFC Fight Island 8

Or: Yas Island in Abu Dhabi

When: Wednesday January 20. The entire map will air simultaneously on ESPN and ESPN +. Eight-fight prelims begin at 9 a.m. ET, followed by the main six-fight card at 12 p.m. ET.


Neil Magny vs. Michael Church

We always have the impression that it is two steps forward and one step back for Neil Magny. And those steps never seem to equate to a best of the best shot at 170 pounds. I’m afraid Wednesday will be another stumble as opposed to a showcase for Magny.

His extraordinary reach has always given him an edge on his feet against most welterweights, especially a converted welterweight like Michael Chiesa, but it won’t be enough to stop Chiesa’s aggressive fight. Although Magny has matured and improved over the previous 23 UFC outings, he still hasn’t shown he can handle an elite submission fighter and that’s exactly what Chiesa is.

Having five rounds on the job would normally be a blessing for Magny as he will have plenty of time to get over a slow start and he has shown he gets stronger as the fight progresses. This match length won’t matter much for Chiesa, who is also a cardio machine. If Magny wins a decision, it won’t be because he will outlive Chiesa. He’ll have to land some damaging shots early to deter Chiesa’s advance or he’ll end up on the ground.

If Chiesa gets his hooks Magny is in trouble, and while he’s been working hard on his ground game, it’s not at Chiesa’s level. “Maverick” takes advantage of Magny’s weakness and gets the cock before the fourth round.

To choose: Church

Warlley Alves vs. Mounir Lazzez

Mounir Lazzez is not the opponent you want to face if you’re looking to get your mojo back.

It’s been over 400 days since Warlley Alves’ last fight and he’s saying all the right things to get back to the path that once took him as one of the most promising welterweight prospects to come out of Brazil. But he can’t afford a slow start or an emotional process against Lazzez. The Tunisian fighter is so aggressive and technical that it won’t take long for him to bring Alves down and start lighting him with strikes.

Alves can try to meet strength with strength, which might be his best course of action. He’s not the most diverse striker, but he’s always had the power in his hands. He’ll just be in a rush to beat Lazzez with a punch (or a kick for that matter, given Lazzez’s propensity for leg strikes) the longer the fight goes on.

Then again, Lazzez could end this one quickly if he stays on his feet. Alves has never been a pullout artist and Lezzez should have enough of a struggle to keep this fight where he wants it.

Lazzez by KO in the first round.

To choose: Lazzez

Ike Villanueva v. Vinicius Moreira

Someone from 0 is going to go here. But in the right way!

As far as Ike Villanueva and Vinicius Moreira go, this light heavyweight game is weird to have on the main map. I guess there’s a good chance this one ends in round one, which is never a bad thing for fans, especially considering that anyone who watches this show from start to finish will get witnessed 11 fights to get to this point. A quick finish will be welcome.

But even being in the UFC is still surprising considering they have yet to achieve a victory in the organization. Villanueva has completed both of her UFC appearances, as has Moreira, and Moreira is yet to cross the four-minute mark inside the octagon. Oof.

Based on that, the logical choice here is Villanueva, but you have to take into account that Moreira also faced stronger competition from Paul Craig, Eryk Anders and Alonzo Menifield. There are a lot of light heavyweights who would struggle with this line, although we do criticize Moreira’s performance.

If you are actually planning to bet on this card, that fight is marked “STAY AWAY”. It is simply impossible to know which of these men will actually take over and save their job. I play it safe and say Villanueva, but I don’t feel good.

To choose: Villanueva

Roxanne Modafferi vs. Viviane Araujo

I don’t like this game against Roxanne Modafferi at all.

As an admitted member of the “Happy Warrior” fan club (how can you not be?), It was a joy to see Modafferi experience a rebirth in the final years of his MMA career. She’s not just a trailblazer and a happy veteran to be here, she’s a top 10 flyweight in the UFC who has strived to be a more complete fighter. She won that main card place.

That said, against the equally well-rounded Viviane Araujo, it’s hard to see how she pulls this one out. Araujo’s muay Thai is sharper, she is a better athlete, and I would give her the advantage of jiu-jitsu as well. Although she had a late start in MMA, she made up for a lot of wasted time with her increasingly impressive performances.

Like a lot of Modafferi’s recent fights, I expect this one to be mostly on the feet, although there could be some fun scrambling on the mat. I lean over to Araujo to get the best of the standing rallies and grappling for the majority of the fight en route to winning a comfortable decision.

To choose: Araujo

Matt Schnell vs. Tyson Nam

Matt Schnell is one of the most unpredictable fighters in the flyweight division; on the other side, Tyson Nam has seen it all.

Plan A (and possibly Plan B) for Schnell must be to bring this one to the ground either with timely takedowns or pulling the guard and forcing Nam into his world. He’s a good striker and has certainly shown a willingness to stand up and trade, but when it’s time to win, Schnell will want to put Nam in a position to get choked. The point is, Nam was never submitted. So while he’s certainly vulnerable to being kept on the mat, I don’t see Schnell finding a finish there.

Schnell’s strike defense is questionable as well, so even though he has a good chin, his willingness to shoot to close the distance could spell the end here. There aren’t many flyweights that can withstand Nam’s firepower for long.

This is the third time this fight has been booked and Nam should be grateful as not only will he be a potential show stealer, but I also predict it will be his third straight knockout victory.

To choose: Male

Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Lerone Murphy

One thing we do know about Lerone Murphy is that he is more patient than his 10 professional appearances suggest. His draw against Zubaira Tukhugov was essentially a victory as he was the big underdog in his debut against a top 25 featherweight, then methodically beat Ricardo Ramos before finishing with the floor and the pound in less than a lap. Each time, he brought a tactical approach to the Octagon to complement his obvious talent.

Douglas Silva de Andrade’s strategy is no secret and could play directly into Murphy’s hands. He’s going to take a few licks as he goes, but he’ll close the distance and Murphy will feel the power of the big Brazilian. Murphy has shown he can deal with a devoted wrestler in Tukhugov and a delicate striker in Ramos, so now we have to see how he reacts when a bulldozer is scheduled to knock him down.

It’s one of the closest fights in my eyes, although Murphy comes up with a lot of confidence behind him. Andrade only lost to Petr Yan, Rob Font, and Tukhugov, and while Murphy can certainly prove he’s a contender this year, I’m not sure if I’m quite ready to add him to this list, even given the heat start his career in the UFC.

Let’s go with Andrade back for the upheaval.

To choose: Andrade

Preliminaries

Tom Breese beats. Omari Akhmedov

Ricky Simon beats. Gaetano Pirrello

Su Mudaerji beats. Zarrukh Adashev

Dalcha Lungiambula beats. Markus Perez

Francisco Figueiredo defeats. Jerome Rivera

Mason Jones defeats. Mike Davis

Sergey Morozov beats. Umar Nurmagomedov

Manon Fiorot beats. Victoria Leonardo

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