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Here are some simple tips: Do not hire players in which you do not buy.
Simple philosophy, no? Fantasy Football is about training and maintaining a team with players you believe in. Why leave it with players you do not think are great?
Every year, I publish a list of players that I avoid at their current average draft position. Last year was almost perfect – The call I made on JuJu Smith-Schuster and that I wrote certainly "I want to be wrong on this one" was rather ugly. But other than that, I avoided headaches and antipersonnel mines.
This year we are aiming for the perfect group of players I do not want to recruit – and we are fighting for closure. Two ex-five halves, two elite elite quarterbacks and a bunch of tight ends are on the list of players to avoid.
Losing Antonio Brown will sting Big Ben. Over the past six seasons, approximately 35% of Roethlisberger's yards and nearly 40% of his touchdowns have been earned by Brown. He finished in the top 10 in four of those seasons and could have had more if it were not for injuries. Before Brown burst in 2013, Roethlisberger had two seasons with more than 4,000 yards and one with more than 26 touchdowns. He finished as top quarter three times in nine years. And it was not as if he had any problems with the receiver – he had pitched to Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Emmanuel Sanders and many others. So unless JuJu Smith-Schuster, Donte Moncrief and James Washington take over, expect Roethlisberger to be disappointed. Do not push him back in the expectation of another season of 5,000 yards … or even 4,500 yards.
Mid-August ADP: Round 7
I would take it: Round 12-plus
You already know the case: Gurley has an arthritic component in his knee this requires daily processing and management. Although this does not mean that it will definitely be slower, it also means that it is highly likely to waste time due to its lack of pain tolerance and serious injury. We also know that the Rams brought back Reserve Reservist Malcolm Brown and traded against Darrell Henderson in the repechage, two clear signs that they intend to keep Gurley's slaps and touch-ups. This means that it is unlikely that he will reach an average of 22.5 hits per game, which was his average of 2018.
Gurley has 28 career games with 19 or fewer hits, scoring more than 10 non-PPR points 13 times (46% pass rate) and more than 15 PPR points over 12 (43% pass rate). Predictably, the numbers are worse if we lower the bar to 17 keys or less. So, if he does not work a lot, the story says he will most often be ineffective. The offensive line with two new starters on the inside and a 37-year-old left-winger who was planning to retire is also detrimental to his cause. In his favor is a projected defense schedule among the top 10but it will not matter if his line O regresses – or if he is injured. Gurley is worth taking, but not like his ADP.
Mid-August ADP: 15 first choices
I would take it: First round 3
Obvious, right? If he's good and does not play football, he'll earn you zero fantasy point. If his career lasts in the season, he may not enter the shippers' facilities before the 10th week, if at all. These opportunities create a tremendous risk for Gordon.
But let's paint a more rosy picture. Let's say Gordon and the Chargers fix the obstacles and that he comes back a week before their first week's match against the Colts. Will coaches immediately give him his usual set of touches (18.8 per game last year)? In what kind of form will it be? His coach says he's ready, but how do we know if a halfback who has missed a handful of matches in three out of four seasons will be ready to face the starter representatives without the risk of further injury? Few of the training camp faithful do not suffer from some sort of problem when they return.
In this example, Gordon would be a top-15 choice, as his risk would be downplayed by the potential reward of one of the top five season types. That's better than what his slippery ADP suggests. But this scenario will only happen if the Chargers change their contract offer (unlikely) or if Gordon does not want to miss any game checks (a possibility). Then again Gordon sympathized with LeVeon Bell's heist last year and even reacted to a tweet from Bell regarding another possible, Ezekiel Elliott.
There are draft strategies for taking Gordon at the end of the third cycle and Austin Ekeler at the beginning of the sixth round. There are preliminary strategies for taking Gordon at any point of the project and finding Justin Jackson in Cycle 10 and up. And then there is the strategy where you do not expose yourself to any risk by preparing a thwarted hold-up with a choice among the top 40. Until Gordon's situation is clearer, I let others take it.
Mid-August ADP: Tour 3
I would take it: First round 5
I guess this one is close because I would write Jones down when he slipped into drafts. But I do not take it to his ADP, I would not want to reach it. He is a good downhill runner with just enough physique to go with underappreciated receiving skills. But the Packers are not really a fertile breeding ground for Fantasy halves as long as Aaron Rodgers is under center. In Rodgers' 11 years as a Packer starter, only four halfbacks had more than 200 holdbacks, only five had accumulated more than 1,000 yards and only four had scored seven goals or more. Jones managed to score nine times last season, but only twice in short-distance situations.
The other blow to Jones is his injury history. He had already missed this summer with hamstring pain, but before that, he was dismissed from pros and college by hamstring and knee problems (2018 and 2017), ligaments torn to the ankle ( 2015) and shoulder and rib problems (2013). This is a warrior who continues to play well despite the injuries, but Green Bay's new coaching staff will not fail to support him by using Jamaal Williams for the attack. And when things go wrong, the Packers will rely on Rodgers, not Jones, to get things done.
Finally, the Packers have the worst schedule projected in terms of racing defenses they will playand it starts immediately with the matches in Chicago, Minnesota vs. Denver, Philadelphia, Dallas and even Detroit (the Lions have a big D line and will come out a week ago). If you think it's bad, wait until you see who they play in weeks 15 and 16.
All Jones has to do to get great value is to stay healthy and get a ton of retouch against a murderer's line of defense. Forgive me for not being optimistic.
Mid-August ADP: Tour 3
I would take it: Border 4 / Tower 5
According to reports and videos on social networks, Guice has done some exercises to practice and looks good, but the Redskins are very careful with him. This will continue in the regular season as long as Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson will be on the staff. Thompson has a lock on the role of transmissions and Peterson is able to handle the work at the earliest alongside Guice. The O-line of the Redskins looks like one of the worst in the league, their pass game is also irrelevant and they have the second worst projected schedule of race defense. There is just not much to be excited about this season.
Mid-August ADP: Round 8
I would take it: end of turn 10
How could anyone seriously consider Freeman after watching his two pre-season games? Not only was he as sharp as a rock, he was part of a three-headed spin that did not give anyone the opportunity to develop his pace during a match. And if this rotation changes, do you really think it will be Freeman, powerful but slow, who will work against Phillip Lindsay? The defense program for the mid-term race in Denver do not help the cause. It does not bother me to settle for Lindsay on draft day in the sixth round, but I have finished looking for all that remains on the rise at Freeman.
Mid-August ADP: Tour 10
I would take it: Round 14
Hunt warrants to your Fantasy team nine weeks of zero Fantasy points (eight more games the tribute of Week 7 of the Browns) and nothing else. Is it a child's game when it is reinstated? Probably. Will he suddenly downplay Nick Chubb and become a Fantasy workaholic as he was in Kansas City? The only way to do that is that Chubb misses his playing time or is terribly inefficient. Maybe he sees more hits in the kicks, but otherwise the Browns owe him nothing and can only use it 10 times per game. It is not worth it to wait two and a half months. Anyone who writes Hunt in his current ADP chooses him based on the past, not the present. It's a bad way to play Fantasy Football.
Mid-August ADP: Round 11
I would take it: Tower 13
You already know that Landry's first year in Cleveland has been disappointing and the addition of Odell Beckham means fewer targets are heading towards him. But what you may not know, is that he had a 60% catch rate with five declines on his slot machine targets in 2018, by Pro Football Focus. This is not a character for Landry (his slot machine acceptance rate in 2017 was 78%). Maybe it bounces, maybe not, but after averaging 6.9 goals per game under Freddie Kitchens' criticism last year, it's hard to be excited about all potential. He has had five catches or fewer in six of his last seven games and has failed to score 10 PPR points on four of them.
Mid-August ADP: Round 6
I would take it: end of series 7 in PPR, series 8 in non-PPR
It's hard to blame Ebron for his best career season. But it is easy to see that the Colts wanted more options in their passing game based on the additions of Devin Funchess (very asymmetric receiver type) and Parris Campbell (small speedster). Indy will also get Jack Doyle, and when he played last year, Ebron shots shriveled.
These changes will certainly prevent Ebron from continuing its torrid production in the red zone. Of his 14 touchdowns (including the playoffs), 11 came 20 yards or more. The Colts no longer rely on Ebron to handle as many scoring opportunities. And without touchdown, Ebron is in trouble – he has played only three games with more than 70 yards. And, yeah, his shift situation is confusing for who knows how long.
Mid-August ADP: Round 6
I would take it: Tour 10
Njoku could be the most overrated end of Fantasy Football. In two seasons (32 games), he has totaled more than 70 yards twice, scored six Fantasy points or less in 18 games (that's in PPR, it's even worse in non-PPR) , scored eight touchdowns and 13 falls. This summer, his head coach has already publicly criticized him for not being consistent enough. Njoku has the raw talent of being amazing, but something keeps him from realizing his potential. Adding Odell Beckham to the passing game at Cleveland will not help him for more targets (he has an average of 4.6 per game).
Mid-August ADP: beginning of round 9
I would take it: Tower 13
Have not you heard? The departure of Antonio Brown leaves 168 targets to take in Pittsburgh. Where will they go? Do not bet that McDonald's farm will benefit. The Steelers have always used a tight end in their attack, but it has rarely been good enough to qualify as a reliable Fantasy starter. McDonald enters its seventh season. He played 73 games. He totaled 70 yards or more four times. He has collected more than five passes four times. He scored 12 times. He missed 23 games. I know it was last year in the tight Fantasy rankings, ranked 12th, but he averaged 4.9 non-PPR points and 8.3 PPR points per game. Aim higher.
Mid-August ADP: Tower 9
I would take it: Round 12
So, which fantasy football sleeps should you take in your project? And what RB2 can you wait until late? Head over to SportsLine right now to get the Fantasy Football 2019 cheat sheets from the model that has called Andrew Luck's huge season and discover it.
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