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The overall picks so far against spread and straight up have been downright poor, which is frustrating.
I went 7-8-1 ATS last week to put my season tally at 15-15-2 and went straight to 10-6 to tie the game at 16-16. It’s not very exciting.
What’s exciting is my 5-2 Best Bets record last week on the Pick Six podcast, which brings my rating for the season to 8-5 ATS. That I love.
This week there are some really interesting games out there, but some are expected to feature save quarterbacks, making it difficult to select. The lines usually reflect the save, but there’s no way to really know how it’s going to play until the game starts.
So be careful this week. I am.
Latest odds:
Houston Texans +8
It will be rookie Davis Mills as the Texans quarterback. He did some good things as a substitute last week, but this Carolina defense is playing so well it’s going to be a real challenge. Sam Darnold is off to a good start for the Panthers, but it will be his first game on the road. That’s why I think the Texans will keep this closeness.
To take: Panthers 21, Texans 19
Washington Football Team (+8.5) at Buffalo Bills
Latest odds:
Washington Football Team +8.5
Washington is supposed to have a dominant defense, but it hasn’t yet been. The front must be better. Buffalo rebounded against the Dolphins to tie the record. Josh Allen looked a lot better. But it will be a tough game against the Washington front. I think the Bills are winning a close game.
To take: Bills 24, Washington 20
Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns (-7)
Latest odds:
Cleveland Browns -7
Whether it’s Andy Dalton or Justin Fields leaving for the Bears, it doesn’t really matter. The Browns haven’t played until the preseason hype yet, but I think that will change in this one. Even with some stoned players on offense, the running game will dictate the tempo and the Bears won’t be able to keep up. The browns take it.
To take: Browns 27, Bear 14
Latest odds:
Baltimore Ravens -8
The Lions showed on Monday they have major defensive problems. The Ravens have come to life attacking the Chiefs in a big way. It’ll show up here, and the Lions won’t be able to keep up. The Ravens take him in an eruption.
To take: Ravens 33, Lions 16
Latest odds:
Tennessee Titans -5
Carson Wentz is hit, which means it will likely be Jacob Eason who makes his first NFL start. The Titans struggle with defense, but any first start can be overwhelming for a young quarterback. The Tennessee offensive appeared to make its way against the Seahawks, starting Derrick Henry. I think it continues here. The Titans seize it.
To take: Titans 27, Colts 14
Latest odds:
Los Angeles Chargers +6.5
The Chargers and Chiefs both lost tough games last week, so they’re tied in the division behind Denver and Las Vegas. This makes it a start to a big game. The Chiefs’ defense looked bad against the Ravens. The Chargers have played well against Patrick Mahomes the last few years and I think it plays out in this one. The Chargers will stay the course, but Kansas City wins late.
To take: Chefs 30, Chargers 27
Latest odds:
New England Patriots -3
The Saints looked bad losing to Carolina and are technically playing a third straight road game since playing their first home game in Jacksonville. They looked flat on losing to the Panthers last week, and now face a tough challenge on the road against the Patriots. The New England defense is playing well and will be here again against Jameis Winston for the victory.
To take: Pats 23, Saints 16
Latest odds:
New York Giants -3
The Falcons play back-to-back road games, which is always difficult to do. They had protection issues, which will appear again for Matt Ryan. The Giants lost a tough game last week, but Daniel Jones played well. This time, Jones and the Giants will find a way out.
To take: Giants 24, Falcons 17
Latest odds:
Pittsburgh Steelers -3
The Bengals are on the road for a second straight week after losing to Chicago. They have a Steelers team that looked bad losing to the Raiders, but the Bengals have struggled against the Steelers in recent years. It will continue here as the Steelers rebound with a good defensive performance.
To take: Steelers 27, Bengals 13
Latest odds:
Arizona Cardinals -7.5
The Cardinals fly high on offense and now move to face a struggling Jacksonville defense. Look for Kyler Murray to have his way into this one. Arizona’s defense was not good against Minnesota. In fact, it was terrible. But the Jacksonville offense is not good. Grand Cardinals.
To take: Cardinals 31, Jaguars 20
Latest odds:
Denver Broncos -10.5
The Broncos are 2-0 behind their defense and solid play from Teddy Bridgewater. The Jets have had some offensive issues, which is never a good thing in Denver against that defense. Look for Zach Wilson to wrestle again. Denver great.
To take: Broncos 28, Jets 14
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5)
Latest odds:
Las Vegas Raiders -3.5
The Raiders play well on both sides of the ball, but especially in attack. Derek Carr turned it on in two games. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have done little in attack and will likely be without Tua Tagovailoa, who injured his ribs. That means it should be Jacoby Brissett. He will face a fierce pass rush with a struggling offensive line. The Raiders are taking this one big.
To take: Raiders 28, Dolphins 10
Latest odds:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1
It’s Game of the Week featuring two 2-0 teams who have legitimate Super Bowl expectations. The Bucs offense has been explosive so far as Tom Brady is off to a good start. The Tampa Bay defense has issues, which Matthew Stafford can exploit. It will be an offensive treat, Brady making the most of it.
To take: Bucs 33, Rams 30
Latest odds:
Minnesota Vikings +1.5
The Seahawks just suffered a tough loss to Tennessee at home, while the Vikings lost a tough loss in Arizona. Both teams have defensive issues. This will lead to a shootout. It could be fun. A first to 35 wins. I’ll go with the Vikings.
To take: Vikings 37, Seahawks 30
Latest odds:
Green Bay Packers +3.5
The Packers play for a short week and now face the 49ers on the road for their home opener. It’s a challenge. But I think Aaron Rodgers and the offense have found something against Detroit that will continue here. The 49ers will win the game with their offense underway – no matter who wears it – but Rodgers will call. It’s close, but the 49ers are taking it.
To take: 49ers 27, Packers 26
Latest odds:
Dallas Cowboys -4
The Cowboys will play their home opener in this one after winning last week against the Chargers. The Cowboys played well on defense in this game, despite the absence of some key defensive players. Jalen Hurts will present a different challenge with his ability to get out and run, but I think they’ll be up to it. Dak Prescott will lead the Cowboys to their second straight victory.
To take: Cowboys 25, Eagles 17
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