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Huawei is expected to launch its Mate 30 smartphones, successors to the Mate 20 and Mate 20 Pro, on Sept. 18 in Munich, Germany. The unveiling will not be just another smartphone event. This launch will directly test the unintended consequences of the US government's ban on Huawei products.
There are three possibilities here. Huawei could launch the Mate 30 with Android and Google apps, with Android but not Google or Android. The first option is unlikely without any intervention – the US government announced a temporary stay last week, but apparently does not apply to new products, according to Reuters.
The second option would be interesting for the small number of users who want Android, but do not like Google apps and all related tracking tools. Huawei could include the open source version of Android, but it is not clear that many users would buy a phone that requires hula hoops to install apps from Google Play.
The third option would be a disaster for Huawei and Google. Do not forget: Google does not earn money directly from Android, but generates money with the Android ecosystem. Ditch Android would probably condemn this set of devices. More importantly, it would permanently remove Huawei from Google.
Google is the biggest loser
"Huawei will continue to use the OS and the Android ecosystem if the US government allows us," Huawei spokesman told Reuters. "Otherwise, we will continue to develop our own operating system and our own ecosystem."
In other words, Huawei said, "If we can not use Android, that's fine. You are forcing our hand, but we have Hongmeng. "
Huawei's operating system, called HarmonyOS in English, is an emergency plan. It's not ready yet. The company's proposed alternative is expected to be commercialized in China this year and around the world in 2020. But even if all goes well, HarmonyOS will be a new operating system devoid of ecosystem. Huawei would obviously prefer Android on its flagship devices, especially those unveiled in just three weeks.
The decision is even more crucial for Google. Huawei will continue to sell smartphones no matter what will happen with the Mate 30. Google may lose the world's largest smartphone maker – Huawei has sold 15% of smartphones in the second quarter of 2019.
It is unclear exactly what Google can do to save Huawei's Mate 30. But you can bet that the American company pulls on all the strings it can find to help its Chinese partner. The Mate 30 and Mate 30 Pro will be either another set of Android smartphones, or the first of many Huawei phones that have harmed the activities of Google.
ProBeat is a column in which Emil talks about everything that goes through this week.
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