Production of uranium metal described as “ provocative ”

Iran’s latest move in violation of the 2015 nuclear deal has caught the attention of international powers, raising the stakes of a return to the multi-country deal as it demands the lifting of US sanctions.

The UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), last week confirmed a report that Iran has started producing uranium metal, a measure that violates parameters of the 2015 agreement – also known as the JCPOA – which lifted sanctions against Iran in exchange for restrictions. to its nuclear program.

Unenriched uranium metal has little civilian use and is different from enriched uranium, which can be used for nuclear power.

Iran says its activity is aimed at producing fuel for a research reactor. IAEA inspectors have confirmed a minimal volume of 3.6 grams (0.1 ounces) of the substance at one facility in Isfahan – less than the size of a thimble.

But it has sounded alarm bells for some in the international community, as more metal – around half a kilogram, experts say – can be used to build the core of a nuclear bomb.

“This is one of the most serious nuclear measures they have taken,” a former Obama administration official involved in the initial JCPOA negotiations told CNBC, referring to Iran. “It’s quite provocative.” The former official spoke on condition of anonymity due to professional constraints in speaking to the press.

The UK, France and Germany, all supporters of the JCPOA, said in January that Iran had “no credible civilian use of uranium metal.” They described the news as “deeply concerning”.

“The production of uranium metal has potentially serious military implications,” they warned.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior researcher at the Washington-based Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said the Europeans’ statement was significant.

“You know you are in trouble when Europeans do not accept Tehran’s ‘civilian use’ argument. That is what should sound the alarm,” he said.

Iran has gradually rolled back its compliance with the JCPOA since May 2019, a year after the Trump administration withdrew from the deal and began imposing heavy “maximum pressure” sanctions on the country for it. described as its destabilizing regional activities.

Tehran’s most recent measures included increasing its enrichment and uranium stocks beyond the limits set in the deal, in a bid to pressure Washington to lift sanctions – which have crippled the Iranian economy – and come back to the deal, which the Biden administration has done. expressed his desire to do.

Importantly, Iranian officials stress that the measures are reversible and have given hope for a return to the deal under Biden. But the White House says Iran must first return to full compliance with the deal, while Iran says U.S. sanctions must be lifted first, creating a potential deadlock.

Yet regional experts believe the nuclear deal remains salvageable.

Iran “tries to stress how important it is for them to bring the United States back into the JCPOA,” the former Obama official said. “I don’t think that at all compromises the possibility of returning to the JCPOA, but it is troubling.”

Aniseh Tabrizi, senior researcher and Iran expert at the Royal United Services Institute, agreed.

“It’s reversible, especially if it’s done in the short term,” she said of Iran’s production of uranium metal. “There has been condemnation, but no sign that this will be the end of any attempt to restart negotiations on the JCPOA.”

In the meantime, however, “Iran has the capacity to exert significant short-term pressure” on the other signatories to the agreement, said Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Middle East North Africa program in Chatham. House, a British think tank.

“But in the long run, “she said,” it is the United States that must be involved in the discussions of the joint committee, “because the United States is at the heart of the agreement and of the sanctions relief for Iran.

A key date to watch is February 21 – at this point, sweeping new laws passed by Iran’s parliament come into force, including a decision that prevents further IAEA inspections. But it is crucial, said Vakil, that the crisis be contained before the June elections in Iran.

“If the international community is serious about containing this crisis with Iran, it is essential to deploy the JCPOA compliance strategy and to put in place a plan to speak with Iran and the joint commission,” he said. she declared. “The sooner they can deploy this, the better they can sort of mitigate Iran’s additional efforts to raise the ante.”

For Ben Taleblu of the FDD, Iran’s tactics so far have been both dangerous and futile. “Tehran’s continued nuclear escalation means that its new violations are necessarily more dangerous,” he said. “Despite Iran’s escalation strategy, neither Trump’s nor Biden’s team have yet turned the tide of major economic sanctions.”