Rates could result in the closure of 12,000 stores

The trade war with China could lead to a rise in prices for everything from toys to clothing, but also "widespread store closures," according to a UBS report.

According to the analysis of the investment bank, tariffs on Chinese imports could put at risk $ 40 billion in sales and 12,000 stores.

"The market is not realizing the extent to which brick and mortar retailing is facing additional difficulties and that the new 25% tariffs could lead to widespread store closures," said UBS analyst Jay Sole. . "We believe that 25% tariffs on imports from China could accelerate the pressure on the profit margins of these companies, to the point of making possible the closure of department stores."

Earlier this month, the Trump administration increased the US $ 200 billion tariff on Chinese imports from 10% to 25%. The president also threatened to add a 25% tariff on almost all of the remaining $ 325 billion worth of goods shipped from China.

UBS was already planning new closures and has calculated that 20,710 clothing stores are expected to close by 2026, according to a report released in April.

"Fees could cause more than half of this change in one year, instead of four," said Sole, adding that it was only listed companies and did not imply the impact on companies private.

Fred's store closures: The retailer announces the closure of 104 additional stores in summer, see the list

Closures 2019: CVS, Payless and Victoria's Secret are some of the brands that have closed nearly 6,500 stores

Even before the risk of tariffs, retailers were having trouble this year and have announced more closures in the first 20 weeks of 2019 than all of last year, according to Coresight Research.

The global market research firm followed the 5,864 closures in 2018, which involved all Toys R Us stores and hundreds of Kmart and Sears facilities. The record year for closures was 2017 with 8,139 closed stores.

Coresight has seen close to 6,400 foreclosures this year, but in a new report released on Friday, it is estimated that 12,000 stores could be closed by the end of the year.

Impact of the tariff increase

Retailers claim to closely monitor the changing business situation and the potential impact of a fourth wave of tariffs on prices.

"We will continue to do everything in our power to keep prices down," said Brett Biggs, chief financial officer and chief financial officer of Walmart, during a phone interview with reporters. "However, the increase in rates will result in an increase in prices that we believe for our customers."

Children's Place Reports "Minimal Margin Impact" on May 10 Rates, Mike Scarpa, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer of the Company, said in a telephone conversation with analysts .

But, added Scarpa, "additional tariffs on the latest products imported from China would have a negative impact on our profitability."

Macy's chief executive officer, Jeff Gennette, said during a phone conversation with analysts on May 14 that the price hike had already had an impact on the company's furnishing business.

However, if all imports from China increased further, it would "have an impact on our private brands and domestic brands," he said.

"We would collaborate with our manufacturing and brand partners to size and minimize the impact on our customers," said Gennette. "We hope that trade negotiations between the United States and China will continue productively and that commercial actions between the two countries will dissipate."

Opening and closing of the Children's Place: The retailer plans to close up to 45 stores and revive the Gymboree brand

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Follow Kelly Tyko, USA TODAY reporter, on Twitter: @KellyTyko

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