Redistribution: States are drawing new electoral maps. Here is what you need to know

by



[ad_1]

It is a leveling factor in the partisanship of the country. It doesn’t matter that there are more Democrats than Republicans in this country, because Republicans control more state legislatures and, therefore, a lot more of the redistribution process.

Pay attention to the drawing of the cards. Now, between the release of the decennial census and the next terms of office, in 2022, states are redrawing their congressional maps and there will be warring proposals, dead ends and court battles across the country before the final lines are drawn. . .

Electoral redistribution. Both parties have a habit of drawing cards to improve their position in Congress and protect the incumbents. Republicans have been much more successful there in recent decades.

Gerrymandering. Since the 1800s, when Massachusetts Governor Elbridge Gerry was accused of designing a district to look like a salamander, you understand? Gerrymander? – this is a political process. Gerry is also interesting as one of only three delegates who refused to sign the Constitution. He lobbied for the Bill of Rights and later served as vice president.

There is art and science to drawing lines creatively to bring together like-minded people and party registrations. The result affects a lot who controls Congress. That’s especially true this year when Democrats have a 5-seat majority and head for a congressional election cycle where the president’s party almost always loses seats.

Anecdote! Name two of the four times since 1862, when the President’s party DID NOT lose any midterm seats.

Voters generally do not like the overt partisanship in the design of these cards. Given the possibility of statewide elections, they took the authority of state legislatures and handed it over to non-partisan, bipartisan, or independent commissions.

But as FairVote’s David Daley writes in The New York Times, the partisan legislature often tries to influence the process anyway. He takes the examples of Arizona, Ohio, Michigan, Virginia and Colorado. In Arizona, he said, the independent member of the commission is hardly independent.
Republicans have an advantage. Most states where the process is wholly or predominantly party-controlled are in the South and Midwest, according to a study by the Cook Political Report.

Cook’s analysis of the current state of the process in the 50 states suggests that after the Republicans may win a seat or two (they say 1.5 seats) when the dust settles from the redistribution process.

Distribution. Redistribution is the redistribution of lines. Redistribution is the allocation of seats to each state. When the census office redistributed seats this year, it gave Republican-controlled seats a net gain; this is where the population increased.

However, that doesn’t mean that growth in the number of people has matched growth in Republicans.

“At the heart of any attempt at forecasting is a paradox. Republican states have won the most seats in Congress and Republican legislatures control the process in most states, but Republican counties have lost population while Democratic counties have won, ”writes Elaine Kamarck at Brookings .

Among states that won seats after the 2020 census

  • 4 chose Donald Trump in 2020 (Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Texas)
  • 2 for Joe Biden (Oregon and Colorado)

Among states losing seats after the 2020 census

  • 5 went for Biden (Michigan, Pennsylvania, California, Illinois and New York) voted for Biden.
  • 2 went for Trump (West Virginia and Ohio)

The example of Texas. This year Texas is a good case study for more on redistribution and redistribution. It won more seats through redistribution – two – than any other state after the census.

Republicans control the redistribution process. Much of the shift in the state’s demographics is towards Democrats, but as the Princeton Gerrymandering Project analysis argues, the first proposed card protects GOP holders and makes most districts more Republican than the state. in general. They give the card an “F” on their ballot.
State districts are also on the table. It’s not just congressional districts that are being redesigned. The Texas Tribune’s review of the state’s legislative district proposal dissects it from both a racial and partisan perspective.

On the racial composition of the legislative districts of the States, the Tribune writes that 95% of the state’s population growth captured in the 2020 census has been fueled by people of color.

But, the new map creates fewer districts where blacks and Hispanics make up the majority of eligible voters. Black and Hispanic Texans are two racial groups that, along with Asian Texans, have outpaced the growth of white residents in the state. over the past decade. “

INTERACTIVE Race and ethnicity across the country
It’s against the constitution to draw lines of Congress by race, but Republicans in Texas say they were “race blind” by offering these cards. The Supreme Court also recently adopted a hands-off approach to gerrymandering for partisan reasons.

On partisan tendencies, the Tribune writes that the old map includes 76 districts that went to Trump in 2020. The new proposal has 86 that would have gone to Trump.

The commission model. Princeton’s Gerrymandering Project gives the board-approved Colorado map, which is now before the state’s Supreme Court, an A for partisan fairness, though it gets lower marks for competitiveness. The card has three seats that lean toward Republicans and four that lean toward Democrats.
In Michigan, where neither party completely controls the process and an independent commission made up of citizens draws and promulgates the lines, there have been numerous proposals for cards that include various combinations of safe and competitive seats which 538 says could end up benefiting either Republicans or Democrats.
Democrats in charge. In Oregon, where Democrats control the process, it’s already over after the state approved its new map. Nebraska and Maine have also completed their maps. Oregon won a seat in the redistribution, but comes out of the redistribution process with fewer competitive seats, just one, according to 538. Republicans have accused Democrats of gerrymandering.
There are proposals to end gerrymandering. The creation of independent commissions is not the only idea to put an end to gerrymandering. Democratic Representative Don Beyer of Virginia has proposed a new law to neutralize the redistribution process. He wants much larger congressional districts that elect multiple lawmakers, forcing candidates to appeal to a wider range of voters.

It’s an interesting idea, but it doesn’t have a lot of traction at the moment.

*** FOLLOWING ANSWER: There are exactly four of the 40 midterms since 1862 when the president’s party did not lose seats, according to Brookings.

  1. 1902. Republicans win 9 seats. But that’s a flawed example as Democrats earned more, 25, thanks to the census and the booming country.
  2. 1934. It was the height of the Great Depression and Roosevelt’s Democrats were rolling.
  3. 1998. It was a month after Bill Clinton was impeached by the House and just before his impeachment trial. The voters went with the Democrats anyway.
  4. 2002. It was the period before the war in Iraq and after September 11th.

[ad_2]

Source link