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“What we expect with the delay is that a number of states are going to have issues with the timelines they have for the redistribution process,” said Adam Podowitz-Thomas, senior legal strategist. for the Princeton Gerrymandering Project and the Princeton Electoral Innovation Laboratory.
Some states have constitutional or statutory deadlines – set in anticipation that the Census Bureau would provide the necessary data on time – that are imminent or, in some cases, have already been missed.
In Colorado, independent panels have already produced draft cards, which they plan to finalize by October 1. Some states, including Iowa and Ohio, have even less time. Many state legislatures will have to hold special sessions this fall focused on redistribution – a task they would typically take care of in the spring during their regular sessions.
Virginia and New Jersey – which hold state legislative elections in November – are proceeding according to their existing maps, rather than the new ones that would generally have been in place by now.
In April, Census Bureau officials released data showing which states would win and lose seats.
Texas won two House seats, bringing its total to 38, just behind California’s 52. The third-highest total is Florida, which will add a seat, bringing its House rank to 28. North Carolina, Oregon, Colorado and Montana are also each winning a House seat.
Seven states each lost a siege: the traditional battlefields of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio and the Democratic strongholds of California, New York and Illinois, as well as West Virginia.
Thursday’s post will provide the more detailed neighborhood-level data that legislatures and redistribution committees need to write maps with precise boundaries for congressional and state legislative districts.
Neighborhood-level data is generally released before April 1. Census officials blamed the delay on the coronavirus pandemic, which hit the United States in early March 2020 – a critical time for the census process. The administration of then-President Donald Trump also fought to exclude non-citizens when distributing seats in Congress among states.
Outside groups following the state redistribution process – assessing partisan makeup, implications for minority groups and more as maps are proposed – will also face intense pressure amid the condensed redistribution schedule.
“Particularly in states where they are going to try to speed up the process, it is up to reform groups and advocates to pay close attention and monitor what the legislature is going to do – being at every public hearing that is held. “, Podowitz -Thomas said.
The data the Census Bureau releases Thursday will be what’s called the “legacy version” – a technical version of the data that states and political parties can plug into proprietary software to start drawing maps.
A less technical version – easier to read and for outside groups and individuals without access to this proprietary software – will be released on September 30.
However, a number of organizations plan to release versions of the data this year that would allow individuals and outside groups to gauge the makeup of proposed districts more quickly than in previous redistribution cycles.
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