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The Chicago Cubs surprised a lot of people – not the fans – this morning by agreeing to a really expensive deal with free agent outfielder Joc Pederson.
And following this news, Dave Kaplan publishes an important report:
Sources have confirmed to me that Tom Ricketts recently increased the Cubs’ player payroll for 2021. This allowed Jed Hoyer some flexibility to reshape his roster in a division the Cubs see as winnable. @kapjhood @NBCSChicago @NBCSCubs
– David Kaplan (@thekapman) January 29, 2021
So many reactions …
1.) This is obviously something that we all just want to believe is true, so we need to take some time before we start to get all happy and crazy. Your desire to believe something can skew your reaction to reports that it is true.
2.) HOWEVA, yes, I believe this report. For one thing, Joc Pederson’s signing is a big data point that we all admit was a bit difficult to follow without a bump in the budget. It’s not like it’s a huge signing, but everything indicates there just wasn’t really all money for 2021 now. The addition of $ 7 million to the bottom line is therefore quite significant.
3.) By the way, we always said the Cubs budget was going to be a fork, and they were going to try to finalize it as quickly as possible on the basis of projections of what the revenues might look like in 2021. The problem has always been the pandemic and the deployment of vaccines. As these situations improve, it’s possible that the Cubs have developed enough confidence in Level X of the budget projections to unlock another tranche of dollar spending for Jed Hoyer. In fact, I guess that’s exactly what happened.
4.) Note that the Cubs are still looking for all low buy options even after releasing extra dollars, and that still makes sense. As with the Pederson signature, you’re just looking to add value where you can. And in a year where we know the Cubs have so many innings to cover, it will still make sense to load up on potential arms when the market is so full of them.
5.) On a related note, I wouldn’t assume this news means the Cubs can suddenly start looking for the best pitchers left in the market. An “increase” in the dollars available to create “flexibility” for Hoyer is not the same as a monster payroll increase. Times, I guess, are always “tight”.
6.) On a related note, I also wouldn’t assume that this news means there won’t be any additional trades. The Cubs’ goal for this year is to compete, yes, and recruit short-term players when the free agent market offers you those options that are consistent with that goal. But their goal is also to add long-term value through potential acquisitions, which means trading controlled players for value is still on the table – perhaps even more now that the Cubs have the. money available to spend in free agency to compensate for losses and also have cash to include in transactions to increase prospect returns.
And a big club like the Cubs, facing talent risks after this season, CAN GO BOTH WAYS. You can spend money to add a depressed / deep market, and also trade coins for long term value. The key to success? Have some cash on hand. So it’s good.
– Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) January 29, 2021
7.) The other thing to keep in mind here is that the offseason is almost over. Many of the best free agents are signed up. Even though the Cubs can now tackle major league plays on big league affairs, what are we looking at? Maybe a guy like Kolten Wong on second base? Maybe a big deal for a reliever, and maybe a little cash that is needed to sign one or two claim starters? There just aren’t many guys with a significant impact in the market at this point.
In any case, I don’t want to be too austere on this front. It’s good news. Maybe it shouldn’t have taken so long, and maybe the payroll will still be several miles lower than last year and the year before. But it’s a bit of flexibility, as Kaplan reports, and it matters if Hoyer uses it wisely for short and long term building.
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