Reprimand at the border is looming for Trump

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellHouse wants to silence Trump the Senate abortion bill: a night in the Senate Energy: climate protesters attack McConnell's office | Center-right group finds Green deal could cost billions of dollars | Say warnings of new climate studies PLUS (R-Ky.) Will not use political capital to fight a resolution sponsored by Democrats who disapproves President TrumpThe Donald John TrumpHouse Committee thinks that it has evidence that Trump asked an ally responsible for Cohen's investigation: the Vietnamese airline is taking steps to open flights to the United States on the sidelines of the Trump-Kim Summit Manafort's lawyers believe that he should serve less than 10 years in prison MOREEmergency declaration for the US-Mexico border.

Instead, the GOP leader will wait for his time and pick his battles carefully, thus avoiding a confrontation with other Republican senators who think that the use of Trump's emergency declaration for the construction of border gates is a political error that creates a bad precedent.

At the same time, McConnell is not immune to what promises to be one of the biggest battles of the 116th Congress. He told Trump what to expect when the Senate passed the resolution of disapproval and warned the president that he would lose the simple majority vote in the upper house, according to a source familiar with the situation. McConnell's advice.

This would lead to Trump's first veto and generate negative headlines for the White House. It could also undermine the case in the administration's courts over lawsuits challenging the President's emergency declaration.

The House must vote on the disapproval resolution on Tuesday. The Senate must then take action within 18 days of House action. Legislation can not be a filibuster.

McConnell is considering a possible vote voiding the veto, while his chances of success will be much greater, since he would only need 34 votes to retain his veto.

But before McConnell starts whisking votes to maintain Trump's veto, he will wait to see if the President Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia D & # 39; Alesandro PelosiThe house wants to silence border governors on the infrastructure after the dialogue between Trump and Pelosi participates in the signing of the new bill on the control of firearms "red flag" of New York. (D-Calif.) Can adopt the resolution with a majority at the veto – which is unlikely.

This makes Tuesday's vote in the House on the resolution a test of what to expect in the Senate.

Republicans control 53 seats in the Senate and would lose the first vote on the disapproval resolution if four GOP senators left the ranks and the Democrats remained unified.

Already three Republicans in the Senate – Susan CollinsSusan Margaret Collins: Home Must Push Trump To Border With Hillicon Valley: Senators Urge Trump To Ban Huawei Products On Grid | Ex-security officials condemn Trump's emergency declaration | New cybercrime tool found | Facebook queries on the treatment of moderators Senator Gill, Senator Tillis, will vote for the resolution blocking Trump's emergency statement MORE (Maine), Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiHouse must push Trump back to the border. Senator Tillis will vote in favor of the resolution blocking Trump 's emergency declaration. Meeting of the GOP President in the Senate before the vote to block the emergency declaration. (Alaska) and Thom TillisThomas (Thom) Roland TillisGOP Senator Tillis will vote in favor of a resolution blocking Trump's declaration of urgency. The Hill & # 39; s Morning Report – Statement of urgency to test GOP loyalty to Trump Do not look for the GOP house to challenge Trump on the border wall MORE (N.C.) – stated that they intended to support the resolution of disapproval and that at least half a dozen additional people were threatening to do the same. Two other probable defectors are the Sens. Cory GardnerCory Scott GardnerJon Stewart, 9/11 Stakeholders Ask Congress to Fund Victim Compensation Program The Hill & # 39; s Morning – Statement of Urgency to Test the Loyalty of Opposing People to Trump Do not Look for GOP House to challenge Trump on the border wall MORE (R-Colo.), Who faces a difficult reelection in a state won by the Democratic party Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonSanders: "I fully expect" a fair treatment from DNC in 2020 after the "anonymous" primary of 2016 Sanders: "Damn," I'm going to make big business pay a "fair" Tax Share "Former Sanders campaign spokesman: Clinton staff is the" biggest hole in American politics ", and Lamar AlexanderAndrew (Lamar) Lamar AlexanderPence in meeting with the Senate GOP before the vote to block the emergency declaration The treatment of repair delays in national parks can give a great victory to Congress The Hill & # 39; s Morning Report – Emergency declaration tests GOP loyalty to Trump PLUS (R-Tenn.).

Tillis warned that the emergency declaration would set a new precedent that a left-wing president would undoubtedly use, while Alexander, who is retiring, calls him "reckless" and "incompatible with the US Constitution".

All Democratic senators are supposed to support this resolution. A spokesman for Sen. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinTrump states that Democrats "are not afraid of the execution of babies after birth" after suspension of the law on abortion blocked Democrats block abortion law in Senate Hill & # 39; s Morning Report – A hinge week for Trump PLUS (D-W.Va.), One of the most conservative members of the caucus, said Monday that his boss would vote for this. Manchin, who has expressed support for the president's border wall, is a state that Trump won by 42 points in 2016.

Josh Holmes, a GOP strategist and McConnell's former chief of staff, said McConnell was very likely not to waste his political capital and would instead focus on the vote to void the veto. – if Pelosi is able to demonstrate that there is enough voice to void the house. Democrats would need more than 50 defections in the House to reach that magic number, and the chances of doing so are, at best, far away.

"The most important early action in this regard is whether House Democrats vote with a veto majority. If they do not, this conversation is over, "said Holmes. "If that's the case, the whole wax ball would be set so [Senate] right of veto override the vote. At this point, it would take a lot of work to ensure the Republicans' victory. "

He said the "name of the leader's game" was "to preserve your demands at the right time and if they became useless, you probably would not need to ask people to do things that hurt them." easy".

Scott Jennings, McConnell's advisor, said, "My instinct is to personally support the president and vote that way, but a simple majority probably exists in both houses to express his disapproval." But it is highly unlikely that Democrats can muster 67 votes in the Senate – securing the defections of 20 Republicans – to cancel Trump's veto.

"My assumption is that Senator McConnell will simply let this process unfold taking into account realities and that everyone can vote the way he thinks he needs to vote and go forward," he said. he declared.

"This will not change the end result, which is an urgent declaration that ends up being litigated in court, and it's up to him ultimately to decide whether the president is going too far," he said. he added. "There are so few Republicans who have to withdraw from the Senate to express their disapproval, I do not think it would be good to whip him."

Sen. John CornynJohn CornynHillicon Valley: Senators urge Trump to ban Huawei products from power grid | Ex-security officials condemn Trump's emergency declaration | New cybercrime tool found | Senators ask about treatment of moderators Senators believe that the administration should ban Huawei technology in US network networks of the US power grid to avoid any brawl around the stop of autumn MORE (R-Texas), a member of McConnell's leadership team, predicts that the resolution will likely be passed by the upper house, but will not go beyond the two-thirds threshold of the House to override Trump's veto. "It could well be a scenario of veto cancellation and I guess it will die in the House.The President will get what he wants," he said. he declared.

Asked about the likelihood that the resolution would get a simple majority in the Senate, Cornyn said, "it only takes four, so you can do the math as well as I do."

Democratic Leader in the Senate Charles SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis SchumerBrennan turns against Trump "selfish" in the face of Harry Reid critics Trump rips Harry Reid for "failed career" after former Dem leader criticized him in Harry Reid interview : "I do not see anything" Trump does well MORE (N.Y.) said last week that an identical identical bill to the House's disapproval resolution would be introduced "soon" in the Senate.

A Republican aide said McConnell was in no hurry to go to a vote, leaving Trump all the time needed to bring the GOP senators to the lineup.

The president on Monday sent back some salvos to the Senate when he warned Republicans via Twitter not to "get carried away by weak and ineffective border security."

"Without strong borders, we have no country – and voters are with us. Be strong and intelligent, do not fall into the "trap" of the Democrats for the opening of borders and crime! ", He tweeted.

Al Cross, a professor of journalism at the University of Kentucky and a long-time commentator on politics in Kentucky, said McConnell had to manage his GOP colleagues "damaging them and the caucus."

"I think that part of McConnell's argument will probably be that it's a vote that does not really matter because the issue is going to be resolved by the courts ", did he declare.

Cornyn, who strongly criticized the use of an emergency declaration to fund border barriers, said Monday that he would likely vote against the disapproval resolution because of his partisan connotation. .

"I think that's the way Schumer and Pelosi paint the president in the corner," he said.

Cornyn, whose re-election campaign was approved by Trump last week, said he had not heard from the White House about the upcoming vote.