Republican agents sweat Trump’s role in upcoming Senate primaries

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Trump has long been drawn to the support of candidates who have shown him endless allegiance and Republican agents believe that desire, particularly after losing the 2020 presidential election, will remain unchanged two years later. But the fear among some agents is that Trump will be even more of a free agent outside the White House, less willing to bow to the pressures that party leaders like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have imposed on him to support. the candidates they thought they had a better chance of making. winning races statewide.

To this problem is added a card of the Senate which is preparing to test the Republican Party. Of the 34 Senate races in the country next year, Republicans will be tasked with defending 20 seats, compared to Democrats’ 14. And of those 20 seats, two will be in states where President Joe Biden won – Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – and four in traditional battlefield states – Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and North Carolina. North. The Democrats’ most threatened seats will be in Georgia and Arizona, two states where the party won special elections in 2020.

Trump’s momentum, agents said, could play out in a very dramatic way: While the party apparatus may subtly support some candidates in the main Senate primaries, Trump could weigh in to support candidates who have been openly loyal to him. , creating a clear divide between the parties. leaders and the former president.

“It’s incredibly complicated,” said a top Republican who has worked on Senate races. “It was incredibly complicated over the last few years and we had at least a seat at the table. He left the building, so any leverage that Senate Republicans could possibly use to put him on the same length of wave is no longer options. “

As the Senate map begins to take shape, Republicans now see plenty of opportunities for Trump to give in to the urge to flounder, especially in open seats or in states where Democrats play defense.

And Trump made it clear on Thursday, after meeting with Minority House Leader Kevin McCarthy, that he had no intention of relinquishing control. “President Trump’s popularity has never been as strong as it is today, and his endorsement means more than maybe any endorsement at any time,” according to a reading provided by the committee Trump’s political action. Although he remains popular among Republicans, Trump left office earlier this month with the lowest approval rating of his presidency, according to a CNN poll.

Vulnerable seats for Republicans

The most vulnerable seat for Republicans will be an open race in Pennsylvania, a state Biden won in 2020, after Republican Senator Pat Toomey announced he would not stand for reelection. The list of possible candidates in the state is long, but a match that could create headaches for Republicans would be between former moderate members of the House like Ryan Costello or Charlie Dent, and a more conservative candidate who could attract Trump’s attention.

The party could find itself in a similar scenario in Wisconsin, another state Biden carried. GOP Senator Ron Johnson has yet to say whether he will run for re-election, but has left the door open for possible retirement. The party will also defend open seats in Ohio and North Carolina, two states Trump won in 2020 but where the Republican primaries will be critical in gauging the party’s ability to hold the seats.

Sources told CNN on Thursday that Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, a Trump frontrunner, would not be running for the seat vacated by Sen. Rob Portman, who chose not to run for re-election. This removes a hurdle for Republicans, as Ohio agents believed that if Jordan had come forward, Trump would undoubtedly have backed his candidacy. But Jordan’s decision could still lead to a divisive primary if the field remains wide and unwieldy.

And as Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley has yet to announce his intentions for 2022, Republicans could be left to defend another open seat if the 87-year-old senator decides to retire.

The two places Republicans feel a far-right challenge are likely Georgia and Arizona, both of which Biden is leading.

Biden became only the second Democrat since 1948 to win Arizona. But the party’s Republican apparatus remains deeply loyal to Trump, and the possibility of a candidate aligned with the party’s far right to clash against more moderate options seems likely to some agents.
And in Georgia – where Biden was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win in 28 years – Trump has scores to settle, angry with the state’s top three Republicans for failing to support his attempt to overturn the election result. A source who had had meetings with Trump for the past four years described him as “incredibly vindictive” when it came to using his political power, making it almost certain that if it was possible for Trump to make life more difficult for Republicans in Georgia. , he will do it.

Trump’s grip on the GOP

Trump’s grip on the Republican Party was only strengthened during his four years in office. And just weeks into his presidency, there are few – if any – signs that Republicans are preparing to walk away from the former president.

“This agenda is not going to change. We are not going to go back to the Republican Party agendas of Mitt Romney and John McCain,” said Michael Whatley, Chairman of the Republican Party of North Carolina.

Whatley argued that the problem for Republicans is more about getting Trump’s grassroots involved, not how involved the former president will be.

“We saw in 2018 a pretty big drop in the Republican turnout with Trump not being on the ticket and we had a phenomenal turnout in 2020. So we just need to make sure we can convert these voters from Trump as reliable voters, ”he said. . For Whatley, that means “there will always be a role for (the former) president just because he drives the Republican base that loves him so much, and we’ve seen that in North Carolina.”

It wouldn’t be the first time the primaries have presented trouble for Republicans – the party has had unwieldy Senate primaries for the past decade or so.

The clearest example of this was the Tea Party movement after the election of President Barack Obama who took control of parts of the Republican Party. These candidates helped propel Republicans into power in the House in 2010, where gerrymandered districts were more conservative. But many of these Tea Party-inspired candidates also wrestled in statewide races and denied Republicans the chance to regain control of the Senate.

Republicans fear the same will happen in 2022 if the party is not careful.

“The key will be to navigate the primaries,” said Matt Gorman, a Republican strategist. “That’s going to be the problem. And making sure we get candidates who can run statewide and attract people from statewide.”

Democrats are eager to see this possible drama unfold, in hopes that Republican fights could save their slight Senate majority and sidetrack Republicans from a general election which, if history is any guide, should be bad for the Democrats.

“We know the environment could be tough,” said JB Poersch, Chairman of Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC. “But the caveat to this is Trump and the division within their own party – it’s real and I don’t think Republicans yet know what that means and how it’s going to play out.”

Poersch added: “Trump is likely to be shaping up here in a way that we haven’t seen a former president cast a shadow in a remarkable amount of time.”

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